Has there been a California exodus? Turns out fewer people than usual are moving in
A new study released Wednesday found no big exodus of people leaving California for other states during the COVID pandemic.
But California is still losing population to domestic migration, because fewer people than usual are moving in from other parts of the United States .
“Every single county has seen fewer people moving in from out of state since the start of the pandemic,” said the nonpartisan California Policy Lab.
It found the number of people moving to California from other states is down 38% since the spring of 2020, when the pandemic ravaged the economy and forced often-radical changes in lifestyles.
At the same time, the number of Californians leaving the state went up 12% since March 2020. That increase, over a period of 18 months, was roughly in line with the rate of departure before the pandemic.
California’s population last year was 39.5 million, up 6.1% from 2010, slower growth than the state saw in the previous decade.
As a result, the state will lose a congressional seat this decade for the first time in its history. The population in the middle of the state grew, but the population in areas around Los Angeles and near the Oregon border have gone down, the Census Bureau said.
Are people leaving Sacramento?
The new Policy Lab study found that in Sacramento County, the number of people leaving for other states was up 13.2%, while the percentage number moving in from other states dropped 33%.
Other figures:
▪ El Dorado County. People moving out, up 18.5%. People moving in, down 24.9%.
▪ Fresno County. People moving out, up 8%. People moving in, down 28%.
▪ Stanislaus County. People moving out, up 11.6%. People moving in, down 26.4%
▪ Tulare County. People moving out, up 3.7%. People moving in, down 29.6%.
▪ Yolo County. People moving out, up 11.3%. People moving in, down 33.9%.
▪ San Luis Obispo. People moving out, up 9.7%. People moving in, down 27.6%.
▪ Merced County. People moving out, up 3.6%. People moving in, down 26.7%.
Migration patterns vary by region.
The Northern Sacramento Valley – Butte, Colusa, Glenn, Shasta and Tehama counties – has seen a smaller increase in people moving away than other regions. That’s perhaps because so many left in 2019 because of wildfires, the report said.
The San Francisco Bay area, on the other hand, was the most volatile region.
Compared to 2020, 45% fewer people moved into the Bay area from other states by the end of September.
San Francisco, San Mateo and Santa Clara Counties all lost population to migration to other states for the first time in at least six years.
The new study does not discuss why these migration patterns have developed.
Earlier this year, University of California San Diego research found “affluent Californians are the group most satisfied with the direction of the state and very likely to believe that it will be a better place when today’s children grow up.”
And a consortium of UC researchers, trying to learn if there was a “California exodus,” concluded that “there is no evidence of an abnormal increase in residents planning to move out of the state.”
UCLA research has found that people 25 to 39 are “moving around at roughly double that of middle-age or older people.” Those moving to other states were most often going to Texas and Washington. Older people were most likely to go to lower-cost Nevada and Arizona.
This story was originally published December 15, 2021 at 12:01 AM.
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