Despite ‘election fatigue’ and Democratic discontent, California turnout looks promising

The 2018 midterm elections drew an historic turnout, the heaviest since 1914. And despite voters’ growing disillusionment with politics overall, next week’s contests may produce similar results, according to election officials.

After the election of Donald Trump in 2016, voters answered with a “blue wave” in 2018, flipping control of the House of Representatives from Republican to Democratic and gaining hundreds of state legislative seats. Democrats also picked up seven governorships.

Now, under the Biden Administration, Democrats are trying to hold a red wave at bay. Control of the Senate is, as of late October, a toss-up, and the House is widely expected to return to Republican hands. Certain Congressional races just south of Sacramento in the Central Valley will play a crucial role in deciding the majority.

Without a shared enemy in Donald Trump, Democratic voters — who showed up to the polls in droves in 2018 — are less than enthusiastic about their party as they prepare to cast their vote next week.

Still, two weeks before the 2018 midterms in Sacramento County, 75,403 mail-in ballots were returned to the elections office. That number last week was 88,878. County election officials take their task of educating voters about the importance of local midterms seriously.

“We are really pushing the fact that midterm elections have so many local implications – local elected officials, local measures. These things impact your daily life more than the presidential election,” said Janna Haynes, Public Information Officer at Sacramento County’s Voter Registration and Elections office.

A particularly low primary turnout in June didn’t bode well for November, but Haynes attributes much of that to the political climate at the time. Just 9 months earlier, Californians had endured a torrent of political ads and campaigns in the effort to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom.

“Californians in particular are experiencing election fatigue,” Haynes said. Voters felt like ‘We just did this!’”

At the statewide level, a majority of California voters have actually cast their ballots by mail since 2012, the number reaching all-time highs during COVID-19 shutdowns. But mail-in ballots are, of course, not a reliable predictor of what will happen on November 8.

“In the last few elections, regardless of early voting opportunities, we’re continuing to see people wait and wait and wait until Election Day,” Haynes said. There are a lot of reasons people might wait for the day of — they want to watch a final debate, follow along with various campaigns, or they just enjoy the ritual of casting their ballots in-person.

“Everyone wants complete results on election night, but the longer voters wait to vote, the less likely those numbers are to be accurate the night-of,” Haynes said.

In neighboring Placer County, where some of the more contentious local elections for school board, city council, and the new 3rd Congressional District are taking place, turnout is predicted to stay at its typically high 70% to 75%.

“Placer County has a really wonderful turnout,” said Placer County Clerk Ryan Ronco. “People have a real desire to have their voice heard that way.”

Ronco attributes his county’s high turnout rate – which is 10-15 points higher than the state’s average – not to specific political parties (though Placer is historically conservative), but to active communities of voters, and consistent outreach efforts.

Seniors living in two Sun City retirement communities vote at a 94% rate. The “robust” high school outreach program gets young people prepared to vote, too.

“We go to each and every high school in Placer County and bring elected officials,” Ronco said. “Things like that are building blocks for people. We are planting seeds about it. We want informed voters.”

Placer County is also a part of the state where large numbers of people are moving and, according to Ronco, “they bring their good voting habits with them.”

El Dorado County, also a part of the 3rd Congressional District, is a historically high turnout county much like Placer. But this year, according to Assistant Registrar Linda Webster, the ballots are trickling in a little slower than usual.

Almost 23,000 of 138,516 ballots have been returned – about 16%. El Dorado voters have long taken advantage of the mail-in ballot option given how rural it is, which makes the slow trickle even more surprising.

“Right now, it’s off to a slow start,” Webster said.

“It’s picking up a little bit but not like we’d expected. We usually have very active voters so we’re expecting a boost [this] week.”

West of Sacramento, bluer Yolo County is seeing increased turnout and 10,000 more registered voters than in 2018.

Comparing the two elections is “a little bit like comparing apples and oranges,” said Yolo County Registrar of Voters Jesse Salinas, because everyone is now able to vote by mail. Still, 14% of ballots have been returned -- almost double the 7.8% around this time in 2018.

Possibly behind the expected high voter turnout: a renewed faith in the electoral process.

California voters have rebounded significantly from record low levels of confidence in the electoral system in 2019, according to a Public Policy Institute of California survey published in September. More Californians than ever reported feeling “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in the state’s electoral process — a possible antidote to disillusionment with the parties themselves.

Transparency at the ballot

In both Placer and Sacramento Counties, election officials are working to create an environment of total transparency in the first national election since 2020, as conspiracy theories about voter fraud continue to circulate.

Harassment, violence, and intimidation at the polls like that in Arizona, where two armed men in tactical gear observed a Maricopa County ballot drop box, resulted in a government memo last week about the “heightened threat” of domestic violent extremism during the midterm election.

“Potential targets of DVE violence include candidates running for public office, elected officials, election workers, political rallies, political party representatives, racial and religious minorities, or perceived ideological opponents,” said the joint memo, published Friday by Department of Homeland Security, FBI, National Counterterrorism Center and U.S. Capitol Police.

Gov. Newsom signed a bill in September protecting the safety of election workers for the same reason.

To head off possible problems, the Sacramento County voter’s office offers organized tours twice a week and a longform Q&A session once a week to give community members as much access to the voting process as possible. There have been other investments in transparency: a 24/7 livestream in the ballot tabulation room, Apple AirTags for tracking vehicles that pick up ballots from drop-off centers, and de-escalation training for staff members who may have to deal with intimidating observers.

“That does people a lot of good in understanding how it works and our efforts for transparency,” Haynes said.

Placer County doesn’t offer organized tours – mostly because there aren’t as many people coming in to ask for them as there are in Sacramento. But interested parties “are encouraged” to go visit the office and learn about the process, Ronco said.

“If there are people out there that feel disenchanted or feel the election was stolen, the only way we can encourage them to come back is to show them we have nothing to hide, and be happy to show them how we do what we do.”

In Yolo County, Salinas has also watched people become increasingly skeptical about the electoral process, and like his counterparts in neighboring counties, is working to keep voters involved. He invites them to watch the Logic and Accuracy Test — an equipment and software verification process that election officials conduct before they start tabulating ballots — and gives tours of the voter center. The number of people showing up for tours is, as in other counties, increasing steadily.

There are two kinds of skeptics, he said: those concerned about election integrity but still open to what he has to show them, and those who seem intent on remaining unconvinced.

“There are some people that literally even when you’re showing them, they still have doubts,” he said, despite a Yolo County Grand Jury report calling his office “an exemplary administrator and guardian of our democratic electoral mechanism.”

“I can’t change that. All I can do is be open and transparent and walk them through and educate them.”

This story was originally published November 1, 2022 at 6:00 AM.