Southern California’s megadrought crisis: What it means for the rest of the state

If there’s any doubt as to whether the West is in a megadrought, take a look at what’s happening in Southern California.

One of the region’s main water sources, the Colorado River, has received little to no rain this century, an extended dry spell that is bedeviling multiple states and has scientists and regulators searching for historical comparisons.

“The Colorado River basin is in its 23rd year of historic drought,” Camille Calimlim Touton, commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, said on a conference call with reporters Tuesday. Christopher Cutler, a deputy chief with Reclamation, called it the driest two decades ever recorded on the river.

Coupled with a meager allocation from the State Water Project — just one-fifth of the usual supply from the elaborate complex of reservoirs and aqueducts — Southern California is suffering through drought conditions that far exceed what most of Northern California has experienced over the past two decades.

So far the consequences have been manageable. The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California has told 6 million of its customers — about a third of the total — to limit outdoor watering to just once a week, albeit an unprecedented step.

Things are likely to get considerably worse. And the consequences are likely to be felt in Northern California.

The problems on the Colorado stem in part from an arrangement California has with its neighbors. It shares the Colorado with six other states and Mexico, through a series of treaties, court decisions and federal regulations.

The California allocation has been shrinking. In 2003, partly because of population growth in Arizona and Nevada, the U.S. Interior Department ordered California to surrender about one-fifth of the water it was taking from the river.

“Almost overnight, as quick as you could snap your finger, that water was gone,” said Robert Glennon, a water law expert at the University of Arizona.

Now, as conditions on the Colorado have deteriorated, it’s likely that California will lose even more.

In stunning congressional testimony in June, Reclamation’s Touton said the seven states will need to drastically reduce their draws from the Colorado next year.

“We’re looking at 2 million to 4 million acre-feet starting in 2023 that we need to conserve,” she said. The Colorado, in good times, is supposed to deliver about 15 million acre-feet a year to the seven states. (An acre-foot is 326,000 gallons).

Touton had given the states until Tuesday to work out a deal. The deadline passed without an agreement, and the finger-pointing was rampant. The head of the Southern Nevada Water Authority, in a letter to Touton and Interior Secretary Debra Haaland, said two months of talks “produced exactly nothing in terms of meaningful collective action.”

On Tuesday, Touton announced new cutbacks on Arizona, Nevada and Mexico for next year, totaling 720,000 acre-feet, but no restrictions for California. She said she will give the states additional time — she didn’t say how much — to figure out how to share the pain of the larger cutbacks of 2 million to 4 million acre-feet.

“As dire as the situation is, there are reasons for encouragement,” Deputy Interior Secretary Tommy Beaudreau told reporters. “The states have come together to try to hammer out voluntary solutions.”

Adel Hagekhalil, Metropolitan’s general manager, said in a recent interview that California and other states have no choice but to find common ground. “If we don’t do it collaboratively, the federal government will do it for us,” he said. “We’re going to have to cut.”

Effect on Sacramento, Northern California

Southern California’s problems could affect the rest of the state. Metropolitan already has long-term water-purchase agreements with farmers along the Arizona border. And earlier this year, a group led by Metropolitan and Silicon Valley’s water agency made an $11.5 million deal to buy water from the city of Sacramento and some of its suburbs, which still have relatively strong supplies. The deal covers enough water to supply 70,000 households a year.

Hagekhalil said Metropolitan will continue to look for deals “if somebody is willing to sell water.” But he said relying on Northern California for water sales “isn’t sustainable,” and his region has to conserve more and invest in recycling to make itself more self sufficient.

Nevertheless, the masters of Northern California’s water know that it will be difficult to resist the call for help from the most populous and politically powerful region of the state.

“We will make sure we get water to Southern California one way or another,” said David Guy, president of the Northern California Water Association, an organization of mostly rural water districts. “Everyone knows where the elected officials come from.”

This story was originally published August 17, 2022 at 5:00 AM.