Coronavirus is experiencing exponential growth in the US. Here’s what that means

You’ve probably heard the term tossed around in recent weeks — exponential growth. But what is it, and what does it have to do with the coronavirus pandemic?

The phrase, sometimes used in math classes, is defined as “growth whose rate becomes ever more rapid in proportion to the growing total number or size.”

To put that in perspective with the coronavirus — cases aren’t just growing, they are growing rapidly.

“You’re going to see an exponential increase in the number of people who test positive on a daily basis,” Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said Monday. “So people just need to be prepared and not shocked by the mathematical reality.”

The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the United States jumped from 5,000 on Tuesday to more than 9,400 by Thursday afternoon, according to Johns Hopkins University.

Dr. Deborah Birx, a top official on the White House COVID-19 task force, said Wednesday cases will “dramatically increase” because of a backlog of tests that are now being run through a “high speed platform,” according to the New York Post.

“So we will see the number of people diagnosed dramatically increase over the next four to five days,” she said.

Coronavirus timeline in the U.S.

Jan 21: The first coronavirus case in the United States was reported In Washington state, according to McClatchy News.

March 2: More than 100 confirmed cases were in the United States, CNN reported.

March 8: It took less than a week for the number of cases in the country to rise to 500, the New York Times reported.

March 11: Three days later, the country had 1,000 reported cases, according to NPR.

March 15: The country had 3,000 confirmed cases, according to CNN.

March 17: There were 5,000 confirmed cases, CNBC reported.

March 19: As of noon Thursday, there were more than 9,400 confirmed cases, according to Johns Hopkins.

The actual number is likely much higher and will continue to rise as more tests are made available.

What do experts say?

“Exponential growth is so powerful not because it’s necessarily fast, but because it’s relentless,” Forbes reported. “Without introducing a factor to suppress it, exponential growth is an infectious disease doctor’s nightmare, particularly as more time goes on.”

Reuteurs reported Tuesday cases in the U.S. are still growing rapidly, along with France, Spain and Germany.

The rate of new cases in China and Italy has begun to fall off, according to the National Post. This is in large part because of the countries’ strict quarantine and self-isolation rules.

Many experts say the U.S. is one to two weeks behind Italy, which has more than 35,000 confirmed cases and 3,000 deaths.

Social distancing is helping keep people away from one another, which could eventually lead the virus to stop spreading.

“We control the desire to be in public places by closing public spaces. Italy Is closing all of its restaurants. China Is closing everything, and we are closing things now, too,” Drew Harris, a population health researcher at The Thomas Jefferson United College of Public Health, told The Washington Post. “Reducing the opportunities for gathering helps folks social distance.”

The director of the National Institutes of Health said “every moment is dangerous” on an exponential curve.

“This Is a particularly critical moment for us to try to bring all the resources and determination of government and the American people to try to get off of it,” Francis Collins told USA Today.

Collins added, ”Let’s be clear: There’s going to be a very rough road ahead of us over the next weeks and months.”

This story was originally published March 19, 2020 at 10:50 AM with the headline "Coronavirus is experiencing exponential growth in the US. Here’s what that means."