Worried about layoffs? This map shows which California communities face the biggest job losses

California could lose about 600,000 private-sector jobs, or roughly 4.1 percent of its workforce, due to COVID-19 by summer, according to an analysis by the Economic Policy Institute, a progressive think tank.

The analysis uses estimates from Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank of the damage from the coronavirus to the national economy and applies them to employment numbers. It takes into account each state’s relative share of employees in the leisure and hospitality and retail sectors, which may be hit particularly hard as Americans stay at home and away from stores and restaurants.

Losing 600,000 jobs would raise California’s unemployment rate from around 4 percent to about 7 percent.

The analysis was completed before Gov. Gavin Newsom issued his shelter in place order on Thursday. The Bee applied the assumptions from the Institute’s analysis to counties and regions in California.

The analysis found that the Sacramento metro area could lose about 33,000 jobs, or about 4.2 percent of its private-sector workforce. That would rival job losses experienced over short periods during the worst of the Great Recession a decade ago.

The estimates are crude because each area has a unique mix of jobs and a different number of workers able to telecommute. Also, the full response to COVID-19, and the resulting economic impact, are still in flux.

David Cooper, one of the authors of the EPI analysis, said that job losses in places now requiring residents to shelter in place could be significantly higher in the short term than in other places.

Several researchers and market analysts are posting their own job loss projections. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the unemployment rate could skyrocket if Congress does not pass an adequate stimulus package.

You can use this spreadsheet based on the Economic Policy Institute’s assumptions to calculate estimated job losses throughout California based on your own understanding of the situation.

Lose your job? Quarantined? Here’s what you can do

California has several benefits available for those struggling with the virus’ impact on their lives, and Gov. Gavin Newsom has announced some changes to make it easier to collect unemployment.

Here are some options you might pursue if you lose income or benefits because of the virus.

I got sick or quarantined. Now what?

First off, California’s paid sick leave law provides time off to many workers. You are entitled to use whatever sick leave you have accumulated.

But in the event of a particularly long illness, you may be eligible for disability benefits, provided your illness is certified by a medical professional.

Newsom, in an executive order released Thursday, ordered the Employment Development Department to waive the one-week waiting period for people who are disabled as a result of COVID-19.

If you were exposed to COVID-19 while on the job and in the course of your regular duties, you may also qualify for workers’ compensation.

My loved one is sick. Can I care for them and keep my job?

California law provides for paid family leave, which you may be eligible for if you are providing care for an ill or quarantined family member.

Paid family leave ranges from $50 to $1,300 a week, depending on your wages. You can collect paid family leave for up to six weeks.

What if I lose my job because of COVID-19?

If you lost your job while sick with COVID-19, and through no fault of your own, you may be eligible for an unemployment insurance claim. You can also apply for unemployment if your hours are reduced as a result of the virus.

Gov. Newsom’s executive order also waived the one-week wait time for those left unemployed as a result of COVID-19.

Unemployment insurance ranges from $40 to $450 a week, for up to 26 weeks.

I’m a gig worker. Does any of this apply to me?

A new state law, Assembly Bill 5, requires businesses to give employment benefits to more workers, including ride-share and food delivery drivers.

Whether a gig economy worker qualifies for unemployment, paid family leave or disability insurance depends on whether you or your employer are contributing to those programs on your behalf.

“There are some self-employed options for (disability insurance) and (unemployment insurance) if the individual chooses to participate and contribute to the coverage,” said Employment Development Department spokeswoman Loree Levy. “We do encourage workers to apply for benefits because there is always the possibility the worker or a former employer paid in at a previous job over the last 12 – 18 months or is being misclassified.”

For more detailed answers, check out the department’s Frequently Asked Questions website at https://www.edd.ca.gov/about_edd/coronavirus-2019/faqs.htm.

Phillip Reese is a data specialist at The Bee and teaches at Sacramento State: 916-321-1137.

This story was originally published March 23, 2020 at 10:46 AM.