Coronavirus updates: California’s averages of COVID-19 cases and deaths hit new lows

California has, at least for a day, fallen below a plateau of cases and deaths that began two weeks ago.

Still, on Monday, the global death toll from COVID-19 crossed 1 million, according to Johns Hopkins University, with more than 33 million known cases worldwide. No country has reported more cases or deaths than the U.S., where nearly 7.2 million Americans have been infected and almost 206,000 have died from the virus as of Tuesday afternoon.

In California, the cumulative case count was at about 813,000 as of Monday — about 11% of the nationwide total — while the statewide death toll climbed to 15,639, or about 7.6% of the nationwide total. (The state’s 39.5 million people account for about 12% of the U.S. population.)

With 3,573 new cases of COVID-19 and 33 deaths from the virus reported around the state Tuesday, each seven-day average fell to its lowest point in months. The 569 fatalities over the past week, or about 81 per day, are the fewest over any seven-day period since the first week of July, while the average 3,212 new cases per day over the past week are the fewest since June 16.

Since Sept. 15, the seven-day average of cases hadn’t deviated more than 2% from 3,500 per day until Monday, when that figure sank to about 3,380 per day; it fell further Tuesday, to 3,212, or decline of about 11% from two weeks ago. The day preceding those two weeks, Sept. 13, California’s seven-day average had hit a new low at 3,289 cases per day after a two-week decline of 37%. The next day, the seven-day average spiked and did not begin to show any sign of decline for another two weeks.

On Monday, Gov. Gavin Newsom repeated words of caution from Dr. Mark Ghaly late last week that, despite hospitalizations and the test-positivity rates reaching all-time lows, there were “early signs” the slowdown in cases was “beginning to plateau.”

At the same time, Newsom said he anticipated “a number of counties” moving into new tiers of the state’s color-coded reopening system when Ghaly delivers that announcement this afternoon. He also remarked at the “continuation of the decline … not only in positivity rate but in hospitalizations (and) ICUs.”

Altogether, it made for a mixed bag Monday.

There are “some points of concern and some points of optimism,” Newsom said, and the state’s current outlook is “simply a reminder of what many projected and predicted,” referring to the second wave predicted by many epidemiologists this fall and winter.

However, while California’s decline in cases may have slowed down, there hasn’t been any noticeable increase more than three weeks since Labor Day weekend. In the Bay Area, the number of patients hospitalized has never fallen faster, this weekend reaching its lowest point since late June.

Meanwhile, the state has begun to conduct tests at levels not seen since before an August heat wave that brought high temperatures, wildfires and ensuing poor air quality, forcing some testing sites to close or reduce their hours.

For nearly a month, from the end of August to about two weeks ago, the California Department of Public Health reported no more than 110,000 tests per day, on average. But there have been at least 150,000 tests reported each of the past two days, while the 14-day average number of tests has climbed to about 120,000 per day.

The rate of those tests to come back positive has remained about even since it hit a low of 2.8% last Sunday, averaged over seven days. Over the past week, 2.9% of tests in the state have come back positive, while the 14-day rate was one-tenth of a point lower at 2.8%.

According to Johns Hopkins University, California’s 2.9% positivity rate over the past week is lower than all but 11 states and the District of Columbia.

Sacramento area numbers

Sacramento, Yolo, Placer, El Dorado, Sutter and Yuba counties have combined for more than 500 COVID-19 deaths and over 30,000 infections since the pandemic began.

Last week, Sacramento County reported its 400th resident death from the virus.

Sacramento County health officials have recorded 22,590 all-time infections and 416 deaths, with 157 new cases added to the tally Friday morning.

More than 170 residents died of the virus in August, after nearly 90 died in July, according to the county health office. Another 68 fatalities have been reported for Sept. 1 through Sept. 22.

Sacramento County had 125 patients in hospital beds and 33 in intensive care units as of Tuesday, according to state data. The numbers are down from peaks of about 280 hospitalized and 90 in the ICU as of late July; the recent ICU total matches the county’s lowest since July 3.

Sacramento County is now in the red tier.

Yolo County health officials have reported a total of 55 COVID-19 deaths among 2,825 infections, reporting 13 new cases Monday and 10 new cases Tuesday. There were three infected patients in Yolo County hospitals as of Tuesday, with two of them in intensive care. The county has five ICU beds available.

Yolo has seen outbreaks at several long-term care facilities, which account for 151 of the total cases and 27 of its deaths. The county, like Sacramento County, is now in the red tier.

Placer County has reported a total of 3,596 cases and 45 deaths, reporting nine new cases and no new fatalities Tuesday morning. There are 19 people hospitalized specifically for COVID-19 in the county, and the ICU count is down to six 11, the county says. Both are the lowest tallies in months. The hospitalized total had plateaued at around 65 in early-to-mid August before declining sharply; the ICU total peaked at 16 on Aug. 25.

Placer County was promoted from the purple tier to the red tier earlier this month.

El Dorado County has reported a total of 1,143 COVID-19 cases and four deaths as of Tuesday afternoon, adding 3 new cases on Tuesday. The county reported two of its four fatalities earlier in September. One patient remains hospitalized and in ICU treatment with the disease.

El Dorado County improved from the red tier to the orange tier last week.

Sutter County has reported a total of 1,717 COVID-19 cases and 11 total deaths, last updated Monday afternoon. There were eight infected patients hospitalized in the county as of that time, including one in intensive care.

In neighboring Yuba County, a total of 1,167 people have been infected with COVID-19 and eight have died as of Monday. There are four infected people in Yuba County hospitals, none of them in intensive care, the county said.

Both Sutter and Yuba counties, which share a bi-county health office, remain coded purple.

This story was originally published September 29, 2020 at 2:32 PM.