Coronavirus updates: California reports highest one-day case total since late August
Though it remains too early to definitively call it a surge, California’s coronavirus activity is growing more concerning by the day.
The state’s numbers are not yet close to breaking any record highs for the pandemic, as the U.S. has already done twice this week with more than 100,000 new COVID-19 cases pouring in Wednesday and another 121,000 Thursday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
But there are clear trends of elevating infection and hospital rates, a pattern that started to emerge in California’s data around mid-October and that has shown little sign of slowing down.
After averaging fewer than 3,200 new cases per day in the first two weeks of October, daily cases of the highly contagious respiratory disease have now soared to nearly than 4,600 in the past two weeks, the California Department of Public Health reported in a daily update Friday.
The state on Friday reported 6,518 new cases, the most in one day since Aug. 22. The state crossed 950,000 total lab-confirmed infections for the pandemic, with the death toll now at 17,866.
Statewide testing capacity has increased slightly in the past few weeks, but it cannot alone account for the full spike in cases. California’s test positivity rate as a two-week rolling average has grown to 3.4%, after having slimmed to a record-low 2.5% less than a month ago on Oct. 18, according to CDPH data.
Hospital and intensive care unit totals for patients with lab-confirmed COVID-19 are also sharply rising, more data that point to the true rate of spread for the virus increasing in recent weeks.
After hovering between 2,200 and 2,400 patients from late September to late October, the overall hospitalization figure on Thursday cracked 2,700 for the first time since Sept. 16, then passed 2,750 on Friday. It’s up 15% in the past week.
The total in ICU has jumped 16% in four days, from 708 on Monday to 822 in Friday’s update from CDPH. It had been as low as exactly 600 on Oct. 14.
Perhaps more concerning than the numbers or trends themselves is that none of them yet reflect the impact that Halloween gatherings and in-person voting earlier this week potentially had on the spread of the virus.
A spike in new cases from that span would not be reflected in the infection data until about two weeks from now, due to the incubation period for the virus plus testing turnaround and reporting times. An associated increase in hospitalization rates might not show up in that data for another two weeks after that, bringing us into early December.
And there is even more concern surrounding these next few weeks, separate from costume parties or election proceedings.
The weather is cooling considerably this weekend in Northern California, where temperatures will fall about 10 degrees colder than average in most places. Snow is possible in the Sierra Nevada mountains, and showers or thunderstorms could hit parts of the Sacramento Valley. Cooler and wetter weather will undoubtedly drive some people to gather indoors rather than outdoors; health experts say the latter is much less risky than the former.
Then there’s Thanksgiving less than three weeks from now, a celebration that Sacramento County public health chief Dr. Peter Beilenson recently urged people to celebrate virtually. Otherwise, there’s considerable risk of spreading COVID-19 to friends and extended family members.
Holidays have long been a point of emphasis, with health officials pleading with the public not to let their guard down and to adhere to the COVID-19 restrictions that have been preached for nearly eight months: social distancing, use of face coverings and avoiding gatherings outside one’s immediate household.
California says on its COVID-19 website that specific state guidance for celebrating Thanksgiving, Hanukkah, Christmas and New Year’s Eve this year amid the pandemic is still “in progress” but should come soon, at least for Thanksgiving.
Where in California are COVID-19 numbers spiking?
As the first full week of November winds down, infection and hospital figures are each on upward trajectories in various parts of California. In most places where they are not, the rates are on a plateau rather than a decline, county-level data from CDPH show.
Increases in hospitalization metrics have been anchored largely, but not exclusively, by growth in Southern California.
CDPH data show recent, sharp rises in hospitalized and ICU cases in Imperial, Monterey, San Diego, San Bernardino and Riverside counties.
In Placer County, total hospitalizations have more than tripled in the past two weeks, from 12 to 40, though ICU totals have stayed in single-digits.
Comparatively smaller but still noteworthy increases have come recently in Contra Costa, Sacramento and Santa Clara counties, the state’s hospitalization data show.
The capital-region counties of El Dorado and Yolo have maintained single-digit hospital totals, a sample size too small to look at for meaningful trends. But keep in mind that Sacramento and Placer’s hospitalization totals are likely include at least some residents from those two neighboring counties.
Ten of the 11 counties mentioned above — all but Santa Clara — were either warned this Wednesday that they failed to meet the required metrics for their current state-assigned tier status for COVID-19 risk, or they were already in the strictest “purple” tier restrictions in California’s economic reopening system.
The state has yet to demote more than two counties in any one week since the new opening framework took effect Sept. 1, but that could change soon. In total, 13 counties face demotion to tighter restrictions as early as next week if their numbers don’t improve or the state does not grant some form of exception.
Four red-tier counties combining for 5.7 million people could soon be demoted to purple, a move that would force large-scale business closures including for indoor restaurant dining, gyms, shopping centers and more. Those four are Sacramento, San Diego, Stanislaus and Yolo counties.
The state’s tier list assessments are based on infection rates per 100,000 residents and test positivity rate, and they use one-week averages with a lag time of one week built in. For instance, that means this week’s tier assignments used a survey of data from Oct. 18 through Oct. 24. Next Tuesday’s update will pull numbers from Oct. 25 through Halloween.
Hospitalization figures are no longer explicitly factored into the state’s reopening decisions, as they were in the spring, but state health officials continue to keep track of counties’ ICU capacities on their data dashboards.
Latest Sacramento-area numbers: 656 dead
The six-county Sacramento region has combined for more than 656 reported COVID-19 deaths and on Thursday surpassed 40,000 lab-confirmed infections since the start of the pandemic.
Sacramento County has recorded a total of 27,530 cases and 508 deaths in the past eight months. Health officials reported 252 new cases Friday following 235 on Thursday, two of the highest daily totals since summer.
The county has now confirmed 46 deaths for October, a total still growing as officials confirm the cause of deaths. Just over 115 died in September and nearly 180 died in August.
There are 90 patients hospitalized with coronavirus in Sacramento County as of Friday, down four from Thursday, according to state data. The number of ICU patients is 20, decreasing by one since Thursday, after being as low as 12 in late October.
Yolo County has reported 3,395 total infections and 62 deaths from COVID-19. The county reported 32 new cases Thursday, the highest number this week following 19 on Wednesday, 25 Tuesday and 17 Monday. Yolo had a new fatality reported Monday and Wednesday.
Yolo has seven patients in hospitals with COVID-19 as of Friday, down one from Thursday, with three still in ICUs.
Placer County has reported 4,692 total infections and 60 deaths, reporting 52 new cases Friday following 98 on Thursday and 15 on Wednesday.
New cases are rising sharply in Placer County. Classified by episode date — the date a positive test specimen was actually taken, as opposed to the date the county reported that positive result publicly — the county says it had at least 407 new infections from the final 10 days of October, a total that could still grow.
That’s the most in any 10-day stretch since the summer surge. Exactly three months ago, Placer County had 412 new cases emerge for the 10 days ending Aug. 5. The county is testing more people now than it was then, but Placer’s test positivity rate is currently at its highest point since early September, while still on an uptrend.
Placer reported on its local hospitalization dashboard Friday that it had 30 patients in hospital beds being treated specifically for COVID-19, including four in ICUs. State data for Placer County on Friday showed 40 hospitalized and six in ICUs. Forty in hospital beds is the most for Placer since early September. Unlike the county, the state does not break down hospitalized cases by cause of admission.
Placer also reports its test positivity rate was 3.9% for the week ending Oct. 28, the most recent with data available. That’s the county’s highest weekly rate since Sept. 7.
El Dorado County is one of a small number of counties in California with a single-digit death toll, with just four fatalities since the start of the pandemic. Health officials have reported a tally of 1,469 cases, adding 10 Thursday after 15 each of the previous two days.
El Dorado has three hospitalized COVID-19 patients, all in ICUs, state data showed Friday.
Sutter County health officials have reported a total of 1,977 people positive for coronavirus and 12 deaths, adding 13 cases Thursday for the second consecutive day. One person was hospitalized in an ICU on Thursday, according to county health officials.
Yuba County officials have reported 1,428 infections, with 15 new cases Thursday, and a total of 10 deaths since the pandemic began. Yuba has one patient hospitalized, not in the ICU.
Sutter and Yuba, which share a bicounty health office, are both in the red tier and did not gain a week toward promotion or demotion this week.
World on brink of 50 million cases
As the coronavirus pandemic reaches eight full months, more than 48.9 million people have tested positive for COVID-19 worldwide, according to Johns Hopkins data as of Friday morning. More than 1,237,000 have died.
Johns Hopkins revised a daily total for Wednesday’s new worldwide cases, previously at 685,000, to 598,000. That is still the all-time record, and it was followed on Thursday by 589,000, the second-most since the global health crisis started.
The U.S. continues to account for roughly one-fifth of the world’s infections and deaths at 9.6 million and 235,000, respectively. The nation, gripped by a tight and tense presidential election, exceeded 100,000 new daily cases for the first two times this week.
Major surges also continue elsewhere in the world, including Europe and South America.
Following the U.S. in all-time death toll are Brazil at over 161,000, India at 125,000 and Mexico at close to 94,000. After that are four European nations: the United Kingdom is over 48,000 dead, Italy is over 40,000, France has more than 39,000 and Spain is near 38,500. Iran has surpassed 37,000 fatalities. Between 32,000 and 35,000 have died in each of Peru, Argentina and Colombia. Russia is approaching 30,000 dead, and South Africa is approaching 20,000.
By infections, India comes after the U.S. at 8.4 million confirmed coronavirus cases, followed by Brazil at over 5.6 million. Russia has reached 1.7 million and France is over 1.6 million. The United Kingdom, Colombia, Argentina and Spain each have reported between 1.1 million and 1.3 million cases. Peru and Mexico have each reported over 900,000. Italy has surpassed 860,000.
This story was originally published November 6, 2020 at 9:37 AM.
