Here is the COVID-19 data California used to demote Sacramento area to purple tier
Gov. Gavin Newsom for months had compared California’s reopening from coronavirus restrictions to a “dimmer switch” — a process that would involve mostly gradual shifts to looser or tighter protocols depending on the trajectory of COVID-19 in any given part of the state.
The metaphor has changed. After more than three months of updating tiers on a weekly basis and moving California’s 58 counties at a deliberate pace through four levels of restrictions, the state’s color-coded framework had to be used instead as an “emergency brake” this week, Newsom announced, due to an intense and fast-developing surge in infections.
“The spread of COVID-19, if left unchecked, could quickly overwhelm our health care system and lead to catastrophic outcomes,” the governor said in a prepared statement.
Newsom and the state health department pulled the brake this week with what was effectively a hard reset to the reopening system.
The California Department of Public Health on Monday downgraded 28 counties to the most-restrictive purple tier, in which restaurant dining, church worship, gyms, movie theaters and several other types of businesses and activities must close for indoor operations. Nine other counties, San Francisco the most populous among them, were downgraded to the second-most restrictive red tier. Handfuls of mostly small counties were allowed to stay in the looser orange and yellow tiers.
Along with the 13 counties that were already purple, this strictest stage now encompasses more than 94% of California’s population.
The classification now includes the entire capital region, made up of Sacramento, El Dorado, Placer, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties.
Rather than weekly updates, CDPH will now assess counties’ COVID-19 data continuously, with tier changes handed down whenever necessary.
It takes only a glance at the last weekly collection of data, with numbers released Monday from the survey week of Nov. 4 to Nov. 10, to see why the emergency brake was pulled and restrictions rolled back so broadly: COVID-19 rates erupted across nearly every well-populated region of California when compared to the assessment released just one week earlier.
The two main metrics of the tier system are new daily cases per 100,000 residents and test positivity rate. The cutoffs between the purple and red tiers remain 7.0 cases per 100,000 and positivity of 8%.
Forty-nine of California’s 58 counties had a daily case rate at or above 7.0 per 100,000 in the most recent state assessment. Of those, only eight — Del Norte, Mendocino, Colusa, El Dorado, Santa Clara, Santa Barbara, Amador and Alameda — were remotely close to the borderline, with rates between 7 and 10 per 100,000. Three of those, Amador, Colusa and Mendocino, were among the nine that stayed in the red tier.
And 31 counties not only exceeded the purple-tier threshold for new cases, but more than doubled it. Eleven of those 31 at least tripled it, reporting averages of 21 or more new cases a day per 100,000.
Sacramento-area COVID-19 metrics skyrocketed this month
Sacramento and Sutter were among those with triple the state-set threshold for new daily cases per 100,000, at 21.8 and 21.2, respectively. Yolo, Placer and Yuba counties were in the doubling camp, at 17.4, 15.8 and 14.6, respectively.
In the region, only El Dorado County was close to the 7.0 mark, with 8.2 new daily cases per 100,000.
The Sacramento-area numbers would be remarkable in their own right, but are more staggering considering how much they increased in the span of 10 days, plus the fact that they’ve shown no sign yet of slowing down.
The prior update from CDPH came last week and assessed data for the week ending Oct. 31. In it, the state said Sacramento County had 9.7 new daily cases per 100,000, which resulted in its demotion to the purple tier. Placer had 8.5, Yolo had 6.7, Yuba had 11.2, Sutter had 8.8 and El Dorado had 5.8.
Comparing the two survey periods, the rate of new cases in Sacramento, Sutter and Yolo counties each more than doubled in the first 10 days of November, according to state data. Placer’s rate nearly doubled. El Dorado’s grew more than 40%, and Yuba’s grew more than 30%, the data show.
These soaring figures were foreshadowed in local updates last week from those counties’ health offices. On their individual COVID-19 data dashboards, Sacramento, Placer and Sutter counties have all recently reported record-high daily case totals.
By episode date, Sacramento and Placer each had their highest case total of the entire pandemic on Nov. 9 and followed it up with their second-highest daily increase on Nov. 10. Sutter, which shares a bi-county health office with Yuba, tracks new cases by reporting date rather than episode date. The past four days of reporting — Friday through Monday — marked the four highest daily totals of the pandemic for Sutter County, its dashboard shows.
As far as test positivity, Sutter and Yuba counties exceeded the 8% threshold while the other four local counties are still below that figure, the state data showed.
But the percentages are climbing quickly in all six, and have been on a steady uptrend for the past five or six weeks across the board, the weekly state data assessments show.
In just the past 10 days, Sutter’s rate more than doubled, increasing from 5.3% for the week ending Oct. 31 to 10.9% for the week ending Nov. 10. It had the third-highest rate of all California counties, behind only Imperial and Tehama counties.
Yolo’s rate also doubled, from 3.2% to 6.7% in the same stretch. Sacramento County’s rate grew from 4.1% to 7.1%. Yuba had its positivity go from 5.4% to 8.2%. Placer went from 4.2% to 6%, and El Dorado moved from 2.2% to 3.3%.
These numbers highlight how hard the capital region has been hit in the current surge. CDPH reported Monday that the statewide positivity rate for COVID-19 was 5% for the past week and 4.6% for the past two weeks.
This means five of the six Sacramento-area counties, all except El Dorado County, recently had their positive test rate shoot well above the state average.
The new rules from state health officials and the Newsom administration also reduce what was previously a three-day grace period for demoted counties to comply with new restrictions down to one day, which CDPH in its announcement said is a measure reflecting the urgent nature of the crisis.
For many demoted counties across California, amended local health orders take effect at noon Tuesday.
Another Yolo County nursing facility suffers second outbreak
Health officials announced this week that Riverbend Nursing Center in West Sacramento is amid its second distinct outbreak of the pandemic.
The nursing home as of Monday had 22 total confirmed COVID-19 cases, with nine residents and 13 employees testing positive, Yolo County said in a news release. The facility is licensed for 99 beds.
In July, Riverbend reported five confirmed cases. No resident or staff deaths have been reported in either outbreak.
Riverbend is the second skilled nursing facility in Yolo County to report multiple outbreaks.
In early October, a resurgence of coronavirus hammered Alderson Convalescent Hospital, where 17 residents and 10 staff had tested positive in early July. Three of those originally infected residents died. Within a month, an additional 61 Alderson residents contracted COVID-19 positive and 15 of them died, according to a state dashboard on virus activity at skilled nursing facilities as well as updates from the county health office.
The second outbreak brought Alderson’s death toll to 18, making it one of the deadliest skilled nursing outbreaks in Northern California. No cases were active at Alderson as of Monday, with the second outbreak now mitigated, according to the state dashboard.
Nursing facilities like Alderson and Riverbend are among the highest risk settings for outbreaks, and because vulnerable populations reside at them, those outbreaks can often be deadly.
Yolo officials pointed out in Monday’s news release, though, that even as infections in long-term care homes rise, “these cases (at Riverbend) account for a small number of the County’s total cases.”
“The majority of recent COVID-19 cases in the County stem from community spread, social gatherings and workplace exposures.”
California by the numbers: Hospital rate surging fast
Statewide, there were more than 4,100 patients hospitalized with confirmed cases of the coronavirus in California as of Tuesday, including 1,086 in ICUs.
Those totals have soared, up a respective 58% and 46% in the past two weeks, and there are more than 4,000 COVID-19 patients hospitalized in the state for the first time since late August.
The hospitalized total grew by a net of 266 patients between Monday and Tuesday, comparable to some of the biggest single-day increases from the steepest part of the summer surge. During that surge, from middle of June to late July, concurrent hospitalizations peaked around 7,200.
More than 1,037,000 Californians have tested positive for COVID-19 and at least 18,299 have died of the disease, CDPH said in a Tuesday update. The state officially surpassed 1 million cases on Saturday.
The state has added an average of about 7,400 new cases per day over the past two weeks, after entering November at just over 4,100.
Test positivity rate as a 14-day average has climbed to 4.7%, up from 3.2% in the last two weeks. In the past week, 5.2% of diagnostic tests have returned positive in California.
Cumulative Sacramento-area numbers: Nearly 700 dead
The six-county Sacramento region has combined for at least 694 COVID-19 deaths and more than 46,000 total confirmed cases during the ongoing health crisis, which has now impacted California for more than eight months.
Sacramento County has recorded 31,387 lab-positive coronavirus cases and 533 resident deaths from the virus. The county added a record-high 496 new cases last Thursday. Officials reported 1,162 for the period of Saturday through Monday, which is an average of 387 per day, followed by 388 on Tuesday.
The city of Sacramento stands on the brink of 300 coronavirus deaths, increasing to 298 with Tuesday’s daily update.
Hospitalizations are soaring as well. There were 191 patients hospitalized with coronavirus in Sacramento County as of Tuesday, up 19 from Monday. The county had 48 patients in ICUs, same as Monday. Both match the county’s highest figures since early September.
Ten deaths have now been confirmed for the first 10 days of November. The county’s October death toll stands at 54.
Yolo County has reported 3,863 total infections and 70 deaths from COVID-19, reporting six new deaths since last Thursday, including two Monday. The county added 49 cases Monday after reporting 56 on Sunday.
Yolo had 14 patients in hospitals with COVID-19 as of Tuesday, down one from Monday, but eight are now in ICUs, an increase of two.
Placer County has reported 5,489 cases during the pandemic, adding 263 for Saturday through Monday, or about 88 a day in that period, followed by 92 on Tuesday.
Placer reported one additional death Monday for 64 all-time. The county has reported five fatalities since Thursday.
Placer reported a massive spike in hospitalized cases: The county says it has 71 patients in hospital beds with confirmed coronavirus as of Tuesday, with 66 of them (93%) in hospitals specifically “because of COVID.” This latter grouping has surged more than 60% since last Friday. Eight are now in ICUs, seven of them being treated specifically for the disease. State data as of Tuesday showed 68 hospitalized and nine in ICUs in Placer County.
Placer on its dashboard says its test positivity rate was 5.7% for the week ending Nov. 8, the most recent span with data available, a growing trend consistent with the state’s assessment. The rolling seven-day average has more than tripled since Oct. 1, when it was just 1.8%.
El Dorado County is one of a few California counties with a single-digit death toll, with just four fatalities since the start of the pandemic. Health officials have reported a tally of 1,701 cases after adding 64 Monday in a total that covers the weekend. The county reported a single-day record 37 cases Friday.
El Dorado has five hospitalized COVID-19 patients as of Tuesday, all in ICUs, up from three on Monday.
Sutter County health officials have reported a total of 2,399 people positive for coronavirus and 12 deaths. The county added 80 new cases Monday, a new daily record, after reporting 58 Sunday, 75 Saturday and 52 Friday. Sutter reported one new death Monday for 13 all-time.
Eleven people infected with COVID-19 were hospitalized as of Monday, and two people were in intensive care, according to county health officials. The hospitalization total doubled over the weekend, from the five reported Friday.
Yuba County officials have reported a total of 1,618 COVID-19 infections and 10 deaths. The county reported 36 new infections Sunday and 20 more Monday. Yuba had four patients infected with COVID-19 hospitalized, with one in an ICU, as of Monday.
This story was originally published November 17, 2020 at 9:49 AM.
