‘Disastrous consequences’: California’s dire COVID surge prompts Christmas warnings
Much like they did a month ago in the days leading up to Thanksgiving, health officials are once again issuing last-minute pleas urging people to scrap any plans for multiple-household gatherings this Christmas.
The desperate ask comes as California approaches two months within its worst surge yet of the coronavirus pandemic. COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations and deaths have all soared to record levels with no slowdown in sight, even as two highly efficient vaccines have already started deployment in limited supply.
A large portion — but by no means all — of the state’s recent virus activity has come in the Los Angeles area. The local health office reported that the county of 10 million residents had an astonishingly low 30 intensive care unit hospital beds available as of Monday.
“Hospitals are already over capacity and the high-quality medical care we are accustomed to in LA County is beginning to be compromised as our frontline healthcare workers are beyond stretched to the limit,” the office said in a news release.
The news release was titled, in part: “Repeating Thanksgiving mistakes could have disastrous consequences,” and it warned of “a surge on top of a surge on top of a surge” if people don’t scale back their holiday celebrations significantly compared to last month.
State and local health officials in California have for weeks attributed at least the start of the ongoing surge, which took root in early November, to private in-home gatherings — parties and other get-togethers involving friends and family members who might have been too lax about mask and social distancing measures.
Health officials say Thanksgiving gatherings likely exacerbated the existing surge. Holidays throughout the pandemic have been a point of emphasis, with concern heaviest in the winter due to colder weather driving celebrations indoors, where the risk of spreading the virus is known to be higher.
Gov. Gavin Newsom’s administration over the past several weeks has implemented some of the tightest restrictions on businesses since the initial March stay-at-home order, all in response to the surge.
State health chief Dr. Mark Ghaly has said that even if the surge has its origins in private residential settings, the volume of cases is now so large, businesses and activities that may have been relatively safe in September or October have now become far riskier.
Consider Sacramento County as an example. Local health officials at one point in October estimated there were about 1,700 active coronavirus cases, according to the county’s COVID-19 data dashboard. The county now estimates about 16,000 infections as currently active — almost a tenfold jump compared to two months ago.
The state earlier this month imposed a new stay-at-home order tied to regional ICU space, with counties subject to the order one day after their region’s overall ICU availability falls below 15%.
State health officials on Tuesday reported California’s aggregate ICU availability at 1.4%, a new low.
Four of California’s five regions, all but the North State that accounts for less than 2% of the state’s population, have triggered the order, which prohibits outdoor restaurant dining and shuts down personal care businesses like salons and barbershops.
Greater Sacramento has bounced around near the 15% mark, most recently reported at 15.7%. The Bay Area is down to 13.5%, and the North State maintains nearly 30% ICU availability.
But for both Southern California and the San Joaquin Valley, which have a combined population of about 27 million, the state has reported an ICU availability of 0% for nearly a full week.
This does not mean hospitals have stopped admitting patients into intensive care. Rather, it’s indicative that hospitals in these regions are reaching deep into their surge protocols to care for critically ill patients. Some are treating ICU patients in alternate parts of the hospital, such as emergency rooms and postoperative surgery beds.
California’s COVID-19 numbers were bad in late November. Now, in late December, they have become abysmal.
In four weeks, from the Sunday before Thanksgiving to the Sunday before Christmas, California’s two-week average for daily new COVID-19 cases nearly quadrupled, sprinting from about 9,900 to more than 38,000, according to data from the California Department of Public Health. Test positivity rate has more than doubled in that span, from 5.9% to 12.2%.
The concurrent hospitalized total for virus patients has more than tripled, from 5,500 to nearly 18,000. The state on Tuesday reported a net increase of 653 hospitalized virus patients compared to Monday, the biggest one-day jump to date.
The case load in intensive care units has grown from 1,300 to 3,750 COVID-19 patients in the past four weeks. Newsom on Monday called for both volunteers and federal aid to help staff overwhelmed hospitals.
The virus is killing at a quicker pace than ever in California. The state has reported an average of 205 COVID-19 deaths per day over the past two weeks, almost quadruple the average of 55 recorded four weeks earlier.
The harsh reality is that the few weeks surrounding and including Christmas will probably see more Californians die of COVID-19 than any other major holiday period of the pandemic up to this point. The sky-high hospitalized patient totals make this almost a mathematical certainty.
To date, nearly 1.93 million Californians have tested positive for COVID-19 and at least 22,923 have died of the virus, according to CDPH.
Vaccination begins at one California state prison
The California Health Care Facility in Stockton is expected to begin administering the coronavirus vaccine to employees and prisoners on Tuesday, union officials said.
California Correctional Health Care Services indicates on its website that while vaccine supply is limited, shots will be distributed in accordance with CDPH guidelines, first focusing on inmates and prison employees considered to be at high risk.
The Stockton prison houses some of the state’s most seriously ill inmates. CCHCS says that the institution, along with the Central California Women’s Facility in Chowchilla and the California Medical Facility in Vacaville, qualify in the first round of vaccine distribution.
California Health Care Facility has had more than 180 inmates test positive for COVID-19, according to a California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation dashboard. Three have died, 25 recovered and more than 150 of the infections are still active and in custody as of Tuesday morning.
Nearly 400 prison employees have caught the virus, 216 of whom had active infections as of a Monday update from CDCR.
Will U.S. ban travel from United Kingdom?
Scientists in the United Kingdom have identified a new strain of COVID-19 that is spreading widely there, and that has also been identified in Denmark, the Netherlands and Australia.
Ghaly, California’s Health and Human Services Secretary, said the mutated virus strain appears to linked to a higher transmission rate, though it does not appear to be any deadlier than previously identified strains.
Newsom said in a Monday news conference that there is no evidence the new strain has reached California, but that he hopes the federal government “takes action in this space,” meaning a temporary travel ban, to keep it from reaching the U.S.
Many other nations have restricted travel from the U.K. already in response to Britain’s new mutation, including Canada, as Newsom noted Monday.
No tier changes, but weekly data shows recent trends
CDPH on Tuesday provided its updated tier list data for California’s 58 counties, which state health officials update at least weekly to assign reopening tiers.
No counties changed tiers this week: 55 counties combining for 99.95% of the state’s population remain in the tight purple tier. Even if any had been promoted or demoted, the ICU-based, regional stay-at-home restrictions supersede the color-coded tier framework in the four of five regions where it’s in effect.
However, the data continue to give insight into how counties’ rates of test positivity and new cases per 100,000 are trending week to week.
There’s bittersweet news for the 13-county Greater Sacramento area. The good news is that test positivity — the better of the two metrics in tracking true spread of the virus — doesn’t appear to have grown at the same furious pace as it did in the previous few weeks. And, as the statewide situation worsens, 10 of the 13 counties maintained a lower rate than California’s as a whole, which was 13.3% for the survey week ending Dec. 12.
On the other hand, the percentages in all but the two tiniest counties in the region are still significantly higher than health officials would like to see, especially in a trio of rural counties on the north side of the region that continue to record some of the highest positivity rates in the state.
Sutter County once again had the worst rate among all 58 counties, at 23.7% for the data survey week ending Dec. 12. It’s exactly the same percentage reported the previous week.
Colusa, which overtook Sutter’s undesirable spot at the bottom of the power rankings the previous week, fell from about 25% to 21%. Sutter’s sister county, Yuba, dipped slightly, from 20.1% to 18.9%.
Colusa, Sutter and Yuba were among the six counties faring worst in positivity rate. The other three are in Southern California: San Bernardino, Riverside and Imperial counties were all over 20%.
More toward the middle of the pack, Sacramento, El Dorado, Placer and Yolo — about 80% of the region, by population — all had positivity rates between 12% and 13%. Yolo’s positivity increased by 1.4% compared to last week’s assessment, but the other three saw negligible change.
In the foothills, Butte’s rate jumped to 11.4%, increasing almost 3% from the prior week, Amador’s rate went from 8.4% to 9.9% and Plumas nudged from 7.6% to 8.3%. But Nevada County dropped over 2%, from 11% to 8.8%.
Sierra and Alpine, two of California’s least-populous counties and among the three in looser tiers than purple, had the state’s best positivity rates at 2.7% and 1%, respectively.
Sacramento-area numbers: 90,000 infected, over 1,050 dead
The six-county Sacramento area made up of Sacramento, El Dorado, Placer, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties has combined for more than 90,000 confirmed coronavirus cases and at least 1,070 deaths to date.
Sacramento County has reported a total of 58,001 infections since the onset of the pandemic and 786 resident deaths from COVID-19. The local health office on Tuesday reported 919 new cases and increased the death toll by 12.
Sacramento County hospitals shot to an even 500 patients with confirmed COVID-19 as of Tuesday’s state data update, yet another all-time high. The ICU total rose from 97 to 104. Available ICU beds dropped by three, from 71 to 68.
By date of death occurrence, the county now reports at least 112 virus fatalities have come in the first 17 days of December. That preliminary figure puts the month well on track to surpass August’s 181 to become the deadliest month of the pandemic. November’s death toll has swelled to 143, as cause of death determinations are confirmed deep into December.
The two deadliest days of the health crisis, locally, have come this month: 16 infected residents died Dec. 7 and 15 on Dec. 10, county data show.
At least 439 residents of the city of Sacramento have died, according to the county health office. Nearly 32,000 have tested positive — more than one in every 16 people living within city limits.
Placer County health officials have reported a total of 11,541 infections and 104 deaths. The county on Monday reported 765 cases and one fatality for the three-day window including the weekend, following Friday’s reporting of 222 cases and five deaths.
State data showed 175 hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Placer hospitals as of Tuesday, down from 181 on Monday. The county had 27 in ICU beds, down a record-high 29 recorded both Sunday and Monday. Placer had 21 ICU beds available as of Tuesday, down six from Monday.
Yolo County has reported a total of 7,234 infections and 108 deaths, adding 137 cases and four deaths to the tally in Tuesday’s update.
As of Tuesday, Yolo had 24 virus patients hospitalized including 12 in ICUs. The ICU patient total remained the same as Monday, but available beds went from six to five.
El Dorado County has reported 4,958 positive test results and 12 deaths. The county health office added 81 cases and two deaths Tuesday.
On Monday, 465 new cases and two deaths were reported for a four-day stretch beginning Friday. That means those four days accounted for about 10% of the county’s cumulative case total and 20% of its reported fatalities for the 10-month health crisis.
Health officials said Tuesday that 23 people were hospitalized with the virus in El Dorado, up two compared to Monday. The ICU total has dropped, from eight Sunday to five as of Tuesday. State data showed six ICU beds available in El Dorado County, a one-day increase of five usable beds.
In Sutter County, 5,774 people have been infected and 45 have died. The county reported 325 new cases and two new deaths Monday, for an update covering the weekend. Sutter reported three fatalities last Thursday and one on Friday.
The bi-county health office reported 45 Sutter residents were hospitalized with the virus as of Monday, including five in the ICU.
Neighboring Yuba County has reported 3,422 infections and 15 deaths, with 162 new cases but no new deaths reported over the weekend. Twenty Yuba residents were in the hospital with COVID-19 as of Monday, the same total as Friday, including four in intensive care.
Not all of those Yuba-Sutter residents were hospitalized in-county. Adventist-Rideout, the lone hospital serving the bi-county region, as of Tuesday’s state data update was treating 62 virus patients, including nine in ICUs. Rideout had zero ICU beds left available in Monday’s update, but boosted that total up to six by Tuesday, state data show.
This story was originally published December 22, 2020 at 8:58 AM.
