Sacramento health officer favors restrictions as COVID surge continues post-holidays
Finally, mercifully, the end of 2020 is upon us.
But unfortunately, California will begin 2021 in much the same way it is finishing 2020: stuck in a surge of COVID-19 infections, pushing hospitals in some parts of the state beyond the limit and into “crisis care” mode.
More than 2.2 million Californians tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020, and the death toll officially surpassed 25,000 on New Year’s Eve with the addition of 428 newly confirmed fatalities, according to the California Department of Public Health.
Deaths are coming at their fastest clip yet, with the past two weeks averaging 252 fatalities per day.
The state reported a record-high 432 deaths Wednesday, with 227 of those — as well as 272 of Thursday’s 428 — coming from Los Angeles County. The county says the two days’ high totals reflect a “significant” backlog from both a recent system outage and reporting delays related to the holidays (the county did not report deaths on Christmas).
The state as of Thursday reported more than 20,500 virus patients in hospital beds, including more than 4,400 in intensive care units. Both totals have grown almost every single day since breaking summer records more than four weeks ago, though Thursday’s addition of just 13 new hospitalizations was among December’s smallest.
Aggregate ICU availability in Southern California and the San Joaquin Valley, where a combined 27 million Californians live, has been at 0% for close to two weeks.
On Tuesday, state health chief Dr. Mark Ghaly announced the regional stay-at-home order was extended in Southern California and San Joaquin Valley, as the initial three-week window for those two regions came to an end. The order involves closures for indoor and outdoor restaurant dining, as well as personal care services including salons and barbershops.
Less obvious has been what will happen for the 13-county Greater Sacramento area, where the end of the initial three-week window coincides with the calendar flipping over to 2021. The region’s ICU availability has been near, but mostly slightly above, the state-set 15% ICU availability threshold for most of the past three weeks after briefly dropping beneath it.
On Thursday, the state reported Greater Sacramento slightly below the mark at 14.4%, down from 17.4% on Wednesday.
According to Dr. Olivia Kasirye, Sacramento County’s public health officer, CDPH has said it will update the Sacramento region health leaders before the deadline, but had not done so as of Thursday morning.
Kasirye told The Bee she believes the state and Sacramento region should stick with the deep shutdown for now, given the likelihood of an upcoming spike in cases from Christmas and New Year’s Eve gatherings.
“It is true our numbers have hovered around 15% (ICU availability) and slightly above, but I think the concern is the projections for the next four weeks,” she said, referring to the mathematically calculated projections the state health department uses to determine whether the order must continue in a region.
“There is still some level of uneasiness about the impact of the holidays and also the fact that San Joaquin and Southern California don’t have ICU capacity at all, and the question of whether that will impact the Sacramento region.
“There is a sense that you don’t want to take us off too soon, and then the following week, the ICU capacity drops.”
Kasirye said she believes the best-case scenario is that cases and hospitalizations will be falling by the end of January. That, coupled with increased vaccinations, would create perhaps the first real light at the end of the tunnel.
“I would love to see that we have peaked and our numbers are beginning to reduce. I’d like to see our rates reducing, and being able to have more clinics available for vaccinations.”
The county got some limited shipments of the vaccine last week, separate from the shipments that went to hospitals and to CVS and Walgreens for use in skilled nursing homes. The county will use its allotment at local health clinics.
More infection numbers; where was new variant found?
There are some modestly promising signs in the infection data. The rolling two-week average for cases dipped down to about 37,000 a day on Thursday, the lowest it’s been since Dec. 19, according to CDPH.
The Christmas holiday last week undoubtedly accounts for some of that decline. But the percentage of diagnostic tests returning positive — which should not be influenced by holiday reporting anomalies because it accounts for testing differences — appears to be on a recent plateau if not slight decline.
That metric fell to 11.9% on Thursday. It had ranged from 12.2% to 12.6% over the previous 10 days, after it had doubled from 6% to 12% in the preceding three weeks.
As Kasirye notes, though, canceling out optimism for the next few weeks is the concern that cases linked to Christmas and New Year gatherings will begin to emerge, deepening the infection surge once again and leading to an even more severe hospital crisis.
In another troubling development, Gov. Gavin Newsom on Wednesday, during a virtual conversation with leading infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci, revealed that a variant of COVID-19 which scientists believe may be more contagious has been confirmed and identified in California.
Newsom said only that the variant was confirmed at a lab in Southern California. Local officials reported later in the day that the case came in a San Diego County man with no recent travel history.
Latest Sacramento-area numbers: 6-county death toll near 1,200
The six counties that make up the bulk of Greater Sacramento — Sacramento, El Dorado, Placer, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties — surpassed 100,000 confirmed cumulative COVID-19 cases on Tuesday. At least 1,181 residents of those six counties have died of the disease.
Sacramento County has reported a total of 65,245 infections since the onset of the pandemic, and at least 857 residents have died of COVID-19. County health officials on Thursday reported 840 new cases and 13 deaths, following 507 cases and 11 fatalities reported Wednesday.
By date of death occurrence, December just surpassed August as Sacramento County’s deadliest month of the pandemic. County health officials report 182 deaths for Dec. 1 through Christmas, one more than all of August.
Virus hospitalizations in Sacramento County have fluctuated widely in the past week. The total in hospital beds fell from a record-high 518 reported one week ago to 452 by Sunday, up to 484 on Tuesday, down to 451 on Wednesday and all the way back up to 491 on Thursday.
State data showed 97 ICU patients countywide as of Thursday, up five compared to Wednesday. Available ICU beds dropping by six, 86 to 80.
The county reports that 461 of its deaths and just under 35,000 of its confirmed cases have been residents of the city of Sacramento.
Placer County health officials have reported a total of 13,550 infections and 125 deaths. The county reported 278 new cases Wednesday following 217 on Tuesday, with no new fatalities disclosed either day. Placer reported five new deaths on Monday, for the four-day reporting window including Christmas.
State data show Placer’s hospitalized total soaring to another record of 216 confirmed COVID-19 patients on Wednesday, before dropping to an even 200 Thursday. The ICU patient total increased by one, up to 23. The state reports 18 ICU beds left available in Placer, same as Wednesday.
Yolo County has reported a total of 8,097 cases and 109 deaths. Yolo reported 147 new cases Tuesday and another 143 on Wednesday. The county’s most recent death was reported Dec. 24.
State data showed Yolo with 25 virus patients in hospital beds, up from 22 compared to Wednesday, with six in ICUs each day. The state now reports 22 ICU beds available in Yolo County, an increase by one.
El Dorado County has reported 5,649 positive test results and 22 deaths. The county reported 104 new cases and three deaths Tuesday, followed by 36 cases and one death Wednesday.
Following just four deaths from March through mid-November, 18 El Dorado residents have died of COVID-19 since Nov. 25, the county says.
Health officials say 29 people are hospitalized with the virus as of Thursday, same as Wednesday, with the ICU total growing from 10 to 11. But state data showed zero ICU beds available, down from four on Wednesday.
In Sutter County, at least 6,411 people have been infected. The county reached the 50 death milestone Wednesday with one new fatality reported, along with 70 new cases confirmed. Sutter said 56 residents were hospitalized Wednesday, tied for its most ever, including 13 in intensive care.
Neighboring Yuba County has reported 3,858 infections and 18 dead, with 20 new cases and one new fatality on Tuesday and 32 cases and no fatalities reported Wednesday. Twenty-three Yuba residents were reportedly hospitalized as of Wednesday, down two from Tuesday, with eight still in intensive care.
Not all of those patients are necessarily hospitalized in-county, but the only hospital serving the bi-county region — Adventist-Rideout in Marysville — broke a record Thursday for the second straight day, increasing to 73 following 72 on Wednesday. The hospital remained at 18 virus patients in ICU beds, another record, with zero ICU beds still available.
A hospital spokesperson confirmed to The Bee this week that California National Guard personnel have assisted in Adventist-Rideout’s emergency department “for several weeks” due to hospital staff being stretched thin.
This story was originally published December 31, 2020 at 10:11 AM.
