Sacramento falls behind as California turns the tide on COVID. Will reopenings be delayed?
COVID-19 infections are plummeting in California, offering hope of a Miracle March that finally springs state residents free of the year-long pandemic.
But a Sacramento Bee analysis of the data shows that positive trends are not happening equally around the state. While local numbers are down dramatically since their December peak in Sacramento County, the capital county ranks low on several key indices.
Sacramento Health Officer Dr. Olivia Kasirye, however, said this week she is pleased with the trend lines over the past two months. She said she is hopeful the county will be able to follow in the footsteps of neighboring Yolo and El Dorado counties and qualify to move into the less restrictive red tier of coronavirus risk later this month. That would allow for the reopening of indoor dining, indoor gyms, as well as broader school openings.
“With more vaccines taking place, that will give us more confidence in opening up more,” she said. “But right now, people must be vigilant.”
The Bee’s analysis shows that Sacramento and other Central Valley counties, many of them largely agricultural, lag the state overall on the path to improvement and potentially fewer restrictions. In contrast, Los Angeles, once the pandemic epicenter nationally, has moved ahead of Sacramento on most key virus-recovery indices.
Overall, California has made a remarkable comeback since December when it had some of the highest COVID-19 infection rates in the country. A Johns Hopkins University analysis shows that California now has the ninth lowest virus infection positivity rate among the 50 states, and is substantially below the level set by the World Health Organization as safe for general reopening of the economy.
Sacramento’s high daily case rate
As of mid-week, Sacramento had the 10th highest rate of new cases per day out of 58 counties, grouped mainly with other Central Valley counties that have consistently been hit harder by the virus over the past year.
Many of those counties have a higher percentage of “essential workers” in the food and agriculture industry.
The data, though, is likely to be slightly skewed in some cases. For instance, people in Sacramento County are more likely to get tested than those in Placer, a Bee analysis shows, leading to more positive cases. There have been 86 tests per 100 Sacramento residents since the epidemic began, compared to 77 per 100 in Placer County.
Placer County is among the state leaders on daily case rates, reporting only six new cases a day per 100,000 residents. El Dorado has seven and Yolo has 10. Sacramento has 11.
Notably, Sacramento’s numbers are slightly higher than Los Angeles County, which was for months the epicenter of the pandemic in California and the nation. Experts say LA’s fast-dropping rate is likely due to several factors: Increased immunity among people who have already had the virus, increased testing, more vaccinations, and a strong push for mask-wearing and other safety measures.
COVID Positivity rates higher in Sacramento
Positive tests have been dropping dramatically statewide. Sacramento County’s case rate was 4.7% as of mid-week, far below its 12% peak on Jan. 1. However, that still lagged the state’s 3.4% average from mid-week.
Yolo County, which recently moved into the less restrictive red tier, allowing indoor dining, was the local leader at 1.2%. That makes it one of the least-infected counties in the state, ahead of San Francisco’s 1.5%, where safety rules have been stringently followed by residents.
Placer was at 2.9% as of mid-week. El Dorado was 4.1%. Sutter and Yuba, both farming counties, ranked among the highest in the state at 6.8% and 7%.
Vaccine rates per capita
Sacramento ranks 36th out of 58 counties on vaccines given per capita, with two vaccine shots administered for every 10 residents. The state median was 2.4 doses per 10 residents as of mid-week.
Sacramento County health officials last week complained to the state that the county is not getting what they feel is a fair share of the limited supply of doses being made available statewide, but say they have not been able to persuade state officials to alter the dosage formula.
State health officials, for their part, say that Sacramento’s slighted reduced shipment levels in the last two weeks are a result, in part, of the state focusing more doses right now in the state’s main agricultural counties.
The Bee analysis shows that many of those valley counties still rank among the worst in the state in vaccines delivered per capita, as of mid-week, nearly two weeks after the state began emphasizing deliveries to those areas.
Sacramento County officials say the numbers of doses available to county residents are further reduced by the fact that the county has been giving doses to people who work in Sacramento County but live in another county. That same protocol is happening in neighboring counties, but those counties have more residents working in Sacramento than vice versa.
Among local counties, Placer is doing the best, with three doses delivered per 10 residents. Those doses include first and second shots.
Yolo followed with 2.6, and El Dorado met the state median at 2.4. Locally, Yuba County is lagging with 1.3 doses per 10 residents.