See how California’s COVID-19 death curve is projected to look, compared to other large states

Story updated on 4/17 with the latest estimates from IMHE.

California saw its worst day for COVID-19 deaths on Thursday and the number of deaths will likely decline until reaching the single digits in early May, according to a widely cited prediction model.

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, founded in 2007 with support from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the state of Washington, has released dynamic projections showing when deaths from COVID-19 will peak in each state. The model assumes social distancing continues until the end of May.

The model predicts that California saw its worst day on April 16, when 96 of its residents died from COVID-19. The model predicts New York also saw its worst day on April 16, when 837 of its residents died. Florida saw its worst day on April 2, when 77 residents died, and Texas will peak on April 19, when around 34 residents will die.

Hospital resource use in California peaked on Tuesday, April 14, according to the model.

The model says of California: “After May 18, 2020, relaxing social distancing may be possible with containment strategies that include testing, contact tracing, isolation, and limiting gathering size.”

The model shows a “flatter” curve of deaths in California than in some other heavily-populated states. California was the first state to issue stay-at-home orders that are now common throughout the rest of the nation.

Like California, most states are predicted to be past their peak number of deaths. Montana, Florida and Mississippi are the states that peaked the earliest. North Dakota, Iowa and South Dakota are expected to peak the latest, in early May.

The IMHE model is updated regularly as new data about the spread of the disease is reported; if their is an unexpected worsening of the pandemic or revised data from counties and states, the model could be updated to predict a new peak. The model has changed already several times due to updates, but it has consistently maintained that deaths would peak in California in mid- to late April.

The model’s predictions come with a hefty margin of error. It predicts their will be a total of 1,658 deaths by August 4 in California but adds that the number could fall anywhere between 1,068 and 3,548. Around 1,000 COVID-19 deaths had been reported in California as of Friday afternoon.

This story was originally published April 2, 2020 at 9:48 AM.