Data Tracker

See how the COVID-19 death rate has slowed in California. Flattening the curve may be working

More COVID-19 deaths were reported in California on Tuesday than during any other day so far, but the state continues to see fewer deaths each day than several other smaller states, and the pace at which deaths are doubling in California has slowed.

California saw 54 deaths on Tuesday, according to Worldometer, which tracks deaths based on media and government reports. The previous high came on Saturday, April 4, when 44 deaths were reported in the state.

Worldometer resets its tracker each day at 5 p.m. Pacific time. As of that time Tuesday, California officials had reported 434 COVID-19 deaths.

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s widely-cited model predicts that California will see its worst day for deaths on April 15, when 67 of its residents will die from COVID-19.

Those updated estimates are more optimistic than the model’s previous prediction that about 119 people would die on a peak day in late April. But California officials continue to say that the state’s infections will just begin to peak in mid- to late May. They say their model may differ because they are incorporating real-time information about what’s happening in California hospitals.

Even though there are more deaths in California, the rate at which the number of deaths is doubling has slowed, an indication that California is succeeding at “flattening the curve.”

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Since California logged its 10th death in mid-April, the number of deaths in the state has doubled about every four days. That pace has tapered some recently. On Tuesday, the cumulative number of deaths in the state was about twice as high as the number on April 1, six days prior.

One of the biggest concerns right now is that COVID-19 patients will overrun the state’s hospitals if the virus spreads too fast.

About 1,154 confirmed and 522 suspected COVID-19 patients occupied the state’s intensive care unit hospital beds on Tuesday, up by about 17 percent from April 1, six days prior, according to the California Department of Public Health.

That’s the equivalent of roughly 23 percent of the state’s licensed adult ICU beds, excluding any beds added in the very recent past as a response to the COVID-19 crisis.

Story updated with new data on 4/8.

Phillip Reese is a data specialist at The Sacramento Bee and teaches at Sacramento State: 916-321-1137

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This story was originally published April 8, 2020 at 9:50 AM.

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