California avoided blackouts Monday but faces record-high demand today. What you need to know

The worst may be yet to come.

California managed to avoid the largest rotating blackout in its history Monday night when temperatures fell and electricity supplies improved unexpectedly.

But Tuesday could be something of a nightmare. The Independent System Operator, the entity that manages the state’s power grid, said demand is expected to peak at 50,528 megawatts sometime around 6 p.m. — the highest peak in state history. The temperature in the Sacramento Valley is expected to hit 106 degrees.

“We are not done. I will be surprise if we get through (Tuesday) and no demand cuts,” said ISO board member Severin Borenstein.

The old record was 50,270 megawatts during a horrific July 2006 heat wave that killed an estimated 140 Californians.

The ISO avoided blackouts that day, but the state’s electricity supply has changed dramatically since then. California has fewer natural gas-fired generators and relies more heavily on renewable sources such as solar power — which dissipates as the sun goes down.

There’s no immediate relief in sight. PG&E, SMUD and other utilities urged their customers to continue conserving power through Thursday as the heat continues. The ISO has a Flex Alert in effect, encouraging voluntary conservation after 3 p.m.

In recent years, the state has been able to scrounge up enough imports from neighboring states to stave off blackouts, but imports have been scarce in recent days because the entire West is experiencing a serious heat wave along with California. That helped produce two nights of blackouts Friday and Saturday.

The ISO had predicted as many as 3.3 million homes and businesses would lose power Monday for an hour or two. But cloudy weather and a public relations appeal for conservation reduced demand. In addition, imports came in a little higher than they had in previous days, and blackouts were averted.

David Marcus, an energy consultant and former advisor to the California Energy Commission, said the cut in demand likely came from conservation programs that reward homeowners and businesses with lower rates if they sign up for programs to allow utilities to cut their energy usage at critical times. Plus, people turned up their thermostats and shut appliances off.

“There was almost definitely ... people (who conserved) just by seeing the news,” he said.

At the same time, he said his examination of ISO’s data suggests the agency had jumped the gun by ordering blackouts Friday and Saturday. He said it’s possible the ISO is “failing to follow its own criteria and is calling for blackouts” in non-emergency situations.

ISO officials said they call for blackouts only when they’re necessary.

Meanwhile, Gov. Gavin Newsom called the blackouts “simply unacceptable” and called for an investigation Monday.

Asked by reporters about the state’s dependence on solar, he said the state remains “committed to radically changing the way we produce and consume energy,” moving away from fossil fuels. But he added that “we cannot sacrifice reliability as we move forward in this transition.”

This story was originally published August 18, 2020 at 8:01 AM.