UC Davis survey finds ‘alarming’ trend toward political violence among American population

One in five Americans believe that political violence is at least sometimes justifiable, and over half believe that the country is headed toward civil war.

That’s according to a new study of attitudes on political violence out of the Violence Prevention Research Program at the University of California, Davis. Researchers surveyed 8,620 adults, in a sample designed to represent the adult population of the United States. The study concluded that American attitudes on political violence have become more dramatic.

“We expected the findings to be concerning, but these exceeded our worst expectations,” said Garen Wintemute, lead author of the study, in a Wednesday news release.

The report was published Wednesday on medRXiv.org, a site that aggregates studies before they complete the peer review process, and was promoted by UC Davis. Wintemute told the Los Angeles Times that he wanted to go public with the results ahead of the November midterm elections, and worried the peer review process would not be complete in time.

Researchers asked respondents a series of questions about the state of American democracy and society, and about their willingness to engage in violence, including political violence.

Key findings, as pinpointed by UC Davis’s news release, include:

▪ 67.2% of respondents believed there is “a serious threat to our democracy.”

▪ 50.1% agreed that “in the next several years, there will be civil war in the United States.”

▪ 42.4% agreed that “having a strong leader for America is more important than having a democracy.”

▪ 41.2% agreed that “in America, native-born white people are being replaced by immigrants.”

▪ 18.7% agreed strongly or very strongly that violence or force is needed to “protect American democracy” when “elected leaders will not.”

▪ 20.5% think that political violence is at least sometimes justifiable “in general.”

1 in 5 of all participants also deemed it somewhat likely that within the next few years, they would arm themselves within a gun in a situation that justifies political violence.

Of those who believed that political violence is at least sometimes justifiable, 12.2% said they would commit political violence to threaten or intimidate a person, and 7.1% said they would do so to kill a person.

UC Davis researchers said that this survey “suggest(s) a continuing high level of alienation and a mistrust of American democratic society and its institutions.”

But Wintemute noted that there was some cause for hope within the survey’s findings, as the majority of respondents still rejected political violence altogether.

“The challenge now for those large majorities is to recognize the threat posed by those willing to engage in political violence and respond adequately to it,” Wintemute said in the release.

Along with Wintemute, the survey’s authors included Sonia Robinson, Andrew Crawford, Julia P. Schleimer, Amy Barnhorst, Vicka Chaplin, Daniel Tancredi, Elizabeth A. Tomsich and Veronica A. Pear.

This story was originally published July 22, 2022 at 3:41 PM.