Will US-Israel strikes on Iran drive up California gas prices? What to know
As crude oil prices climb following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, drivers across California might be wondering what to expect at the pump.
California drivers typically pay some of the highest fuel prices in the country, AAA said.
Gas prices usually begin climbing this time of year, because summer-blend fuel costs more to produce.
However, the Iran-US war could add another layer of uncertainty.
According to Marie Dodds, a public affairs director for AAA, global tensions involving major oil-producing countries can trigger additional price swings beyond the usual seasonal increases.
“The unknown is how geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran will continue to impact crude oil prices,” Dodds said in a recent news release. “That could mean volatility at the pumps, in addition to the normal seasonal spring increases.”
Here’s what that means for people commuting or traveling in California:
War between US, Iran could impact crude oil prices
On Saturday, Feb. 28, the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran in an attack dubbed Operation Epic Fury, PBS News said. One strike killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
President Donald Trump has called on Iranians to rise up and overthrow their government as strikes and counter-strikes by Iran continue.
“The escalating conflict has caused canceled flights, deadly protests, suspended shipping and soaring oil prices,” PBS News reported.
Iran mainly sells its oil to China because of U.S. sanctions, but the conflict also could imperil the critical Strait of Hormuz, which moves 20 million gallons of crude and refined oil per day, Business Today said.
How much will gas prices rise due to Middle East conflict?
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at fuel price website GasBuddy, said gas prices have risen for the fourth consecutive week, “driven primarily by seasonal tightening and broader market dynamics.”
“Looking ahead, markets will now begin reacting to this weekend’s U.S.–Iran attacks, which have elevated geopolitical risk premiums even in the absence of immediate supply disruption,” he told the Miami Herald.
Crude oil prices — which help determine what you pay at the gas pump — have mostly stayed in a moderate range within the upper $50s to mid-$70s per barrel since late 2024, according to AAA.
Since crude oil is the main ingredient in gasoline and diesel, changes in oil prices are passed along to consumers.
About half of what you pay at the pump reflects the cost of crude oil, with the rest covering refining, distribution, marketing and taxes, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Following the strikes, U.S. crude oil prices rose more than 6.5%, NBC News reported, noting that Brent crude oil futures — considered an international benchmark — jumped 7% on Monday, March 2.
“Retail gas prices move about 2.5 cents for every $1 move in the price of crude oil, so already a nearly 13 cent-per-gallon increase could be on the horizon for consumers,” NBC News said.
Gasoline prices had already risen about 17% in 2026 following Trump’s “ramped-up rhetoric” against Iran, NBC News said.
Consumers could now see local gas prices rise another 20 to 30 cents per gallon, according to The New York Times.
How much does gas currently cost in California?
As of Monday, March 2, the average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline in California was about $4.66, according to AAA.
Around the same time in 2025, the statewide average was approximately $4.78.
As of Monday, these were the average prices per gallon for regular gas at metropolitan areas around California:
- Bakersfield: $4.59 per gallon
- Chico-Paradise: $4.54
- El Centro: $4.32
- Fresno: $4.63
- Hanford-Corcoran: $4.51
- Los Angeles-Long Beach: $4.70
- Madera-Chowchila: $4.69
- Merced: $4.56
- Modesto: $4.51
- Napa: $4.82
- Oakland: $4.73
- Orange County: $4.65
- Redding: $4.46
- Riverside: $4.56
- Sacramento: $4.65
- Salinas: $4.83
- San Bernardino: $4.55
- San Diego: $4.70
- San Francisco: $4.84
- San Jose: $4.67
- San Luis Obispo-Atascadero-Paso Robles: $4.80
- San Rafael: $4.87
- Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Lompoc: $4.57
- Santa Cruz-Watsonville: $4.73
- Santa Rosa: $4.84
- Stockton-Lodi: $4.56
- Vallejo-Fairfield: $4.63
- Ventura: $4.64
- Visalia-Tulare-Porterville: $4.62
- Yolo: $4.58
- Yuba City: $4.42
Find cheapest gas stations in my area
GasBuddy is a price-tracking website designed to help motorists find the cheapest gas prices in their areas.
You can search for the most affordable gas stations in your area on the GasBuddy website.
