Is crime in California on the rise? Top expert talks about recent robberies and the law

So-called “progressive prosecutors” across California are being criticized for policies their critics say are fueling the next crime wave. Viral videos have shown people ransacking high-end retailers, prompting some to say recent sentencing changes are to blame. Some cities are grappling with a surge in gun violence, and distressing headlines paint a bleak picture of life in the Golden State.

But is crime on the rise?

Magnus Lofstrom, a researcher and policy director of criminal justice at the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California, is considered one of the top experts on crime in California. His team wrote the landmark report in 2018 on the effects of Proposition 47 — a study that journalists, pundits and politicians have cited ever since.

His team has recently been monitoring updated crime data from four major California cities.

Lofstrom spoke with The Sacramento Bee about the high-profile thefts, an uptick in violence, the effects of legal changes and what is often lost in today’s conversation about crime trends in California.

Realizing we don’t have comprehensive data for this year, what are we seeing in terms of crime in California? How does it compare to where we’ve been?

What we did see in 2020 was that violent crime stayed roughly the same, it came down a little bit overall. We did see a very notable increase in homicides of about 30% and also some increases in aggravated assaults. But rapes and robberies were down. When we look at the violent crime rate in 2020, that puts us at a level where we were in the late 1960s.

For property crime, we saw a continued decrease in 2020. That actually put our property crime rate at the lowest levels since 1960, going back all the way to when we have reliable crime statistics.

We’ve been tracking changes in four of the state’s large cities: San Francisco, Oakland, San Diego and Los Angeles. And what we are seeing there is that, while larceny came down in 2020, we are seeing increases in 2021.

But the increase is not driven by shoplifting. It’s driven by car break-ins. That’s where we see the most notable increases in property crime in those four cities in the first 10 months of 2021.

Are there geographical differences?

When we’re talking about homicides and aggravated assault, they appear to be something that is widespread throughout the state. We saw increases in homicides, not just in California but nationwide as well.

These are part of broader trends when it comes to homicides

How would you respond to those who suggest that the slight increase in larceny you’re noting is a direct result of Proposition 47?

As we’ve followed property crime-rate trends, including larceny, what we saw is that there was a one-time increase in 2015. And since then, our trends in property crime as well as larceny continue to follow nationwide trends, as well as states that have very similar crime trends. We didn’t find that there were increased effects as time went by. So it was limited to that early period.

If we’re looking at those four cities in 2021, what we’re observing there is yeah, there are increases in larceny and it’s brought up to the level of where we were before the pandemic.

What about those so-called smash-and-grab robberies and organized theft?

When we’re looking at the various crimes that might be on the rise, and we’re looking at these smash-and-grabs, it’s worthwhile to remind ourselves of the types of offenses that were affected by Prop. 47.

Shoplifting is certainly one. As long as they are stealing property worth more than $950, the prosecutors have an opportunity to charge that individual with a felony, and they are not limited to misdemeanor.

In the kinds of smash-and-grabs that we’re talking about, there is a possibility that individuals who are arrested for these offenses can be charged with felonies if these are commercial burglaries, which means that they took place with the intent of stealing. If it’s done under threat, it’s robbery.

So there is a possibility of charging these as felonies and they are not necessarily limited by the types of offenses that Prop. 47 reclassified.

Sorting out exactly what single thing may or may not be contributing to any crime rate change seems almost impossible, given the pandemic. How do you respond as an expert to those kinds of explanations?

We are experiencing highly unusual times where we have all seen so many changes to our lives, and there have been many changes to our criminal justice and correctional systems. It is going to be very difficult to point toward a single one that is behind all those changes that we’re seeing.

We are looking at notable increases in homicides and aggravated assaults. When we take a closer look at that, what we’re seeing is that those increases appear to be primarily in gun-related violent crimes. When we’re looking at homicide, it has been primarily men of color where we have seen the increase.

When we’re looking at property crime, the increase that we’re actually seeing in 2020 and 2021 are in auto theft.

So the crime numbers that we’re looking at aren’t pointing us toward shoplifting being of greatest concern. There are other crimes that appear to be of greater concern.

What is missing in the broader conversation around crime in California?

I think it’s important to stress the number of factors that potentially contribute to the changes that we’re observing in crime numbers that we’re reading about in the newspapers and see on TV.

It’s a reminder of these highly unusual times when there have been so many changes to our lives and that many of these changes can also have an impact on crime rates.

It’s a reminder of the difficulty of pointing toward a particular factor that is behind this. But it’s also a reminder of the importance of generating better understanding of what is behind these changes. We are seeing very notable changes in crime. We are seeing increases this last year from low crime rates. We have victims of these crimes.

It is of great importance to us to better understand what those factors are. It should be a priority.

This story was originally published December 16, 2021 at 10:42 AM.