California’s population is projected to remain flat. But these counties will see big jumps

After decades of growth, California’s population will remain flat over the next 40 years, the result of an aging population, lower birth rates and migration out of the state’s coastal regions.

That said, pockets of California are expected to see significant growth, according to the latest projections from the state’s Department of Finance. And many of those pockets are in the Sacramento region and Central Valley.

San Joaquin, Placer, Merced, Yuba, Sacramento, Solano, Yolo and Stanislaus counties will all grow by at least 10% between now and 2060, according to projections. San Joaquin and Placer counties are projected to grow by about 25%, while Sacramento County will add more than 250,000 new residents, one of the largest jumps among the state’s large counties. Fresno and Kern counties are also projected to add residents.

Demographic experts with the state attribute the projected growth in those counties to a continuation of the COVID-era migration that sent residents from the state’s expensive coastal urban centers to the relative affordability of Sacramento and the Central Valley.

“We have been seeing positive migration (to those regions) and we expect that to continue through the future,” said Andres Gallardo, a demographer with the state Department of Finance.

Sacramento and some other regions will also see strong international migration, particularly from China, India and Mexico, as well as Ukraine and other former Soviet Union nations. The Sacramento region is already home to one of the largest Ukrainian immigrant populations in the nation.

Still, some regions are expected to lose population between now and 2060. And after a string of projected year-over-year increases, the statewide population is expected to begin declining in 2045 and is expected to have about 11,500 fewer residents in 2060 as it did in 2020.

The largest population declines are projected in many of the state’s rural and sparsely-populated counties, including Lassen, Plumas, Modoc and Mono. The population of Los Angeles County is expected to decline by a net of 1.7 million residents, a 17.3% drop for the nation’s largest county. Other large counties with projected population declines include Ventura, Sonoma, San Mateo and San Francisco.

In addition to migration losses to other regions, demographers attribute much of the future population losses in some corners of the state to declining birth rates. Los Angeles County, for instance, has a birth rate below both the statewide and national rates, according to the most recent census figures.

The state develops its population projections to help local governments assess “what they are going to need in housing, local services, water, sewers, roads and schools,” said H.D. Palmer, a spokesman for the Department of Finance.

This story was originally published August 24, 2023 at 5:00 AM.