Gas prices still high in California, but experts say that could change before Memorial Day

Sticker shock at the fuel pump? You aren’t the only one.

Sacramento’s gas prices — largely in line with California-wide trends — have been increasing all year, as nationwide gas prices have been shooting up in recent weeks.

California is leading the nation in pricey fuel, with the state averaging $4.18 for a gallon of regular grade unleaded gasoline, according to the gas price aggregator GasBuddy. Sacramento isn’t far behind the state, averaging $4.13 per gallon.

Prices in both California and Sacramento started to increase more rapidly around mid-February, when the average price-per-gallon of gas in Sacramento was about $3.35.

Prices across the country have been rising since May 2020, after a major price drop. With fewer and fewer commuters on the roads due to the coronavirus pandemic, the national average per-gallon price hit a low of $1.74 in late April that year. In Sacramento, the price bottomed-out at $2.53 per gallon in early May.

The long and slow recovery from the pandemic mirrored a slow increase in prices since then. By mid-February this year, when California gas prices began to increase more rapidly, the state had just emerged from a deadly winter surge of the coronavirus, and economic restrictions were soon rolled back.

Additional stress has been put on the nation’s gas supply due to a temporary shutdown of Colonial Pipeline, a major supplier of fuel on the East Coast. The company was attacked by ransomware hackers on May 7 who forced Colonial Pipeline to hand over $4.4 million. In response, some residents in affected areas took to panic buying fuel out of desperation.

GasBuddy analysts say the attack caused a nationwide increase in prices, but another factor to consider is the approaching summer months, which historically draws a large crowd of travelers onto the roads, eager to get away for vacation.

“The numbers are clear: people are itching to travel as the nation recovers from Covid-19 but are frustrated with some of the highest holiday weekend gas prices in quite some time,” GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis Patrick De Haan said in a news release. “Gas prices have been increasing for months due to the continued rise in gasoline demand as a myriad of destinations reopen ahead of the summer driving season. The Colonial Pipeline shutdown only highlighted how much more reliant consumers have become on gasoline since the pandemic hit.”

The good news is that prices are appearing to stabilize following the Colonial Pipeline shutdown. In the past week, the national average cost for a gallon of gas has gone down, according to GasBuddy data. As of May 16, the U.S. average cost was $3.035. By Sunday, it had dropped to $3.028. The nation hasn’t seen average prices in excess of $3 per gallon since 2014, according to GasBuddy.

California has yet to feel any relief. The state averaged $4.127 on May 16, which had risen to $4.182 by Sunday. One week ago, Sacramento residents could expect to buy a gallon of gas for $4.054, and on Sunday it was up to $4.133.

De Haan says that there’s reason to believe prices will fall in the coming days, although perhaps not as much on the West Coast.

“Drivers don’t need to worry too much though, as there is an end in sight. Prices should ease up ahead of the holiday, mainly in areas where the pipeline challenges were most severe,” he said. “Be warned that a rebound may happen as we approach midsummer, should gasoline demand rise to near-record levels.”

GasBuddy predicts that the national price of gas will hit $2.98 per gallon by Memorial Day, down a few cents from where it currently stands, but still relatively high. The last Memorial Day with more expensive gas was in 2014, with prices averaging $3.66.

This story was originally published May 24, 2021 at 5:00 AM.