Does impeachment make presidents more popular? Trump approval poll repeats history
A new poll this week finds that President Donald Trump’s approval rating has hit a record high, even as the U.S. Senate voted on impeachment articles that the House brought against him.
Trump’s job approval numbers are the highest since he entered the White House in 2017, with 49 percent giving him a thumbs up, a Gallup poll released Tuesday finds. Meanwhile, 50 percent disapprove of Trump — and only 1 percent didn’t have an opinion, according to Gallup.
The Senate acquitted Trump of both impeachment charges Wednesday. The only senator who didn’t vote with their party was Republican Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah, who supported convicting Trump on the abuse of power charge but voted against the obstruction of Congress charge.
So what does that say about congressional impeachment proceedings against Trump? And is it possible that House Democrats’ charges against Trump have strengthened his position?
History shows that another president’s numbers rose amid impeachment: President Bill Clinton’s approval jumped to 73 percent following a House impeachment in the 1990s — and his job numbers stayed higher than before those proceedings as the Senate tried and acquitted him, according to Gallup.
But the case against President Richard Nixon — who resigned before the House impeached him — tells a different story. Business Insider reports that “by the time Nixon resigned to avoid being impeached, he was sitting at some of his lowest approval ratings ever.”
Jeffrey Jones writes for Gallup that the new Trump poll was taken from Jan. 16 to 29 “in the midst of the Senate impeachment trial that will likely result in the president’s acquittal.”
The poll found that 52 percent favor acquitting Trump while 46 percent favor convicting and removing him from the White House.
Does that mean Trump’s approval rose because of impeachment? It’s possible, Jones writes — but it could be more complicated than that.
“Whether the rise in Trump’s approval rating and the Republican Party’s image is being driven by a backlash against impeachment, the strong economy or other factors may become clearer in the near future,” Jones wrote.
Jones added that “Trump’s increased approval rating may also result from other issues,” such as the recent U.S. strike killing an Iranian general, strong economic numbers, and the trade deal with Mexico and Canada.
Jones writes that “impeachment and a strong state of the nation may have brightened Trump’s election prospects.”
Trump’s campaign suggested his increased strength reflects a good economy.
“America is riding high with President Trump and his record-high support is indicative of our country’s success,” said Erin Perrine, a spokesperson for the campaign, Newsweek reported. “Record-low unemployment from women, veterans, blacks, and Asian Americans, rising wages, and millions more jobs than job seekers — America is the strongest it has been in generations.
What does this mean for Trump’s approval ratings going forward?
Gallup looked at the historical record from the Clinton case, which reveals Trump’s numbers might go back down if they track Clinton’s experience.
“If it is mostly impeachment-based, his approval rating may revert quickly back to pre-impeachment levels, as it did for Clinton,” Jones writes. “Within two months of his acquittal in February 1999, Clinton’s approval rating returned to where it was before he was impeached, as did the Democratic Party’s advantage in party identification and leaning.”
This story was originally published February 5, 2020 at 12:58 PM with the headline "Does impeachment make presidents more popular? Trump approval poll repeats history."
