Biden is leading Trump in the polls one day before the election. But by how much?
Joe Biden is faring better in the polls than President Donald Trump the day before the election. But his lead in some key battleground states is much more narrow.
Nationally, Biden is leading Trump by an average of 8.5 percentage points as of Monday morning, according to poll analysis site FiveThirtyEight.
RealClearPolitics, which aggregates polls results, has Biden up by an average of 6.9 percentage points as of Monday morning.
FiveThirtyEight says Biden is “clearly favored” to win the presidency, with a 90% chance.
Biden is also favored to win in six key battleground states that could decide the outcome of the election, but polling averages show a tight race in some of them, including Arizona and Florida. (Trump won all six states in 2016.)
Arizona
FiveThirtyEight average: Biden leads Trump by 3.1 percentage points.
RealClearPolitics average: Biden leads Trump by 1 percentage point.
FiveThirtyEight ranks Arizona as the fifth most likely state to “deliver the decisive vote” in the presidential election, with a 5.9% chance. It predicts Biden will win 50.9% of the vote and Trump will get 47.8%.
It gives Biden a 71% chance of winning the state’s 11 electoral votes.
Arizona has historically been a Republican stronghold — last picking a Democrat for president in 1996 when President Bill Clinton defeated Republican nominee Bob Dole, according to Ballotpedia.
Donald Trump carried the state with 48.7% of the vote in 2016.
Florida
FiveThirtyEight average: Biden leads Trump by 2.4 percentage points.
RealClearPolitics average: Biden leads Trump by 1 percentage point.
Florida, which as 29 electoral votes, is the second most likely state to tip the presidential election, with an 11.9% chance, according to FiveThirtyEight. The site predicts Biden will win 50.8% of the vote compared to Trump’s 48.4%.
Biden is “slightly favored” to win Florida, according to FiveThirtyEight, with a 68% chance.
Trump narrowly won Florida in 2016 with 49% of the vote. The state picked Democratic President Barack Obama in 2012 and 2008, according to Ballotpedia.
Michigan
FiveThirtyEight average: Biden leads Trump by 8.1 percentage points.
RealClearPolitics average: Biden leads Trump by 5.1 percentage points.
FiveThirtyEight ranks Michigan as the No. 3 state most likely to be the deciding vote, with an 8.1% chance.
It predicts Biden will carry the state with 53.6% of the vote compared to Trump’s 45.4%. Biden is “clearly favored” to win the state’s 16 electoral votes, with a 95% chance, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Trump narrowly carried Michigan in 2016 with 47.5% of the vote, per Ballotpedia. It was the first time the state picked a Republican for president since 1988, when President George H.W. Bush beat Democrat Michael Dukakis.
North Carolina
FiveThirtyEight average: Biden leads Trump by 1.9 percentage points.
RealClearPolitics average: Trump leads Biden by 0.6 percentage points.
Monday is the first day since early September the RealClearPolitics average shows the president leading Biden in North Carolina. The former vice president has been steadily leading Trump by narrow margins throughout the election season in the FiveThirtyEight average.
North Carolina ranks sixth on FiveThirtyEight’s list of states likely to tip the election, with a 5% chance.
FiveThirtyEight predicts Biden will win 50.6% of the state’s vote. He is “slightly favored” to win North Carolina — which has 15 electoral votes up for grabs — with a 65% chance, according to the site.
North Carolina went for Trump by 3.6 percentage points in 2016.
The state picked Obama in 2008 but his Republican challenger Mitt Romney in 2012. The 2008 election was the first time North Carolina went for a Democrat since picking Jimmy Carter in 1976, according to The Charlotte Observer.
Pennsylvania
FiveThirtyEight average: Biden leads Trump by 5.3 percentage points.
RealClearPolitics average: Biden leads Trump by 4.3 percentage points.
Pennsylvania is the state most likely state to tip the election, with a 36% chance, according to FiveThirtyEight.
The site predicts the state’s vote will be split 52.3% to 47% in Biden’s favor.
Biden has an 87% chance of claiming Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes, meaning his is “favored” to win the state, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Trump won the state in 2016 with 48.2% of the vote, according to Ballotpedia. It was the first election in which Pennsylvania was won by a Republican since 1988.
Wisconsin
FiveThirtyEight average: Biden leads Trump by 8.2 percentage points.
RealClearPolitics average: Biden leads Trump by 6.6 percentage points.
FiveThirtyEight ranks Wisconsin as the fourth most likely state to tip the election, with a 7.2% chance.
It predicts Biden will win 53.6% of the vote and Trump will win 45.5%.
Biden has a 94% chance of winning the state’s 10 electoral votes, meaning he is “clearly favored” to win in Wisconsin, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Trump scraped by in Wisconsin in 2016, winning 47.2% of the vote compared to Clinton’s 46.5%, per Ballotpedia. It was the first election since 1984 — when President Ronald Reagan defeated Democratic nominee Walter Mondale — that the state went for a Republican.
This story was originally published November 2, 2020 at 6:23 AM with the headline "Biden is leading Trump in the polls one day before the election. But by how much?."
