What happens if there’s an Electoral College tie? Trump could end up with unlikely VP

This election cycle has been full of shocking events — from a narrowly foiled assassination attempt to a last-minute change at the top of the Democratic ticket.

Come Election Day, Americans could be in for yet another surprise: a tie.

While the odds of it happening are very slim, an Electoral College tie is entirely possible, particularly in competitive elections, political experts told McClatchy News.

In the event of a tie, the president and vice president — for the first time in modern history — would be decided by Congress through a process laid out in the Constitution.

By the end of this process, the country, as unlikely as it sounds, could end up with President Donald Trump and Vice President Tim Walz.

How does it work?

To win the presidency, a candidate must garner 270 electoral votes, which is the majority of the 538 up for grabs.

If no candidate reaches 270 votes — including in the case of a 269-269 tie — then the election is settled by the newly elected Congress through what is known as a “contingent election,” Derek Muller, a law professor at the University of Notre Dame, told McClatchy News in an email.

In the event this happens, the House of Representatives would be tasked with choosing the president from among the tied candidates, Muller said.

Each state delegation would receive one vote, with 26 votes required to win.

However, if state delegations are tied, say between four Republicans and four Democrats, they would not cast a vote, Muller said.

“As things stand right now, there are several more states with Republican majority delegations than with Democratic delegations,” Paul Beck, an emeritus professor of political science at the Ohio State University, told McClatchy News in an email.

While this balance could change after the election, it’s unlikely to result in the Democrats having a majority in most states, Beck said.

This means that Trump would likely be favored to win in the House and return to the White House.

The vice presidency, however, would be decided by the Senate through a simple majority vote, meaning the first candidate to reach 51 votes would win, Muller said.

Currently, Democrats — with the inclusion of independents who caucus with them — have a narrow majority in the Senate.

If this majority holds after the election, then Walz — Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate — would likely be favored to win the vice presidency.

Additionally, if the House fails to select the president by Jan. 20 (Inauguration Day), the vice president-elect would serve as the acting president “until the deadlock is resolved in the House,” according to the National Archives.

How likely is it?

The chances of an Electoral College tie happening in 2024 “are very low,” Muller said. “I typically estimate it at much less than 1%.”

Still, given the close nature of the race, “the arithmetic is possible,” Robert Shapiro, a professor of government at Columbia University, told McClatchy News in an email.

The last time an Electoral College tie occurred was in 1800, when Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr both won 73 electoral votes, Muller said. The House ultimately voted for Jefferson to be president.

In 1804, the 12th Amendment, which made several adjustments to the Electoral College system, was passed “to reduce the likelihood of ties,” Muller said.

Though no ties have happened since then, there have been two other contingent elections — once in 1824 and once in 1836, according to the Congressional Research Service.

The aftermath

“I think the ‘contingent’ election would be quite politically unpopular,” Muller said. “It is not a scenario Americans are prepared to anticipate, so it would be surprising.”

Still, some states, including Vermont, have similar processes for choosing their governors if a majority is not reached, Muller said.

Further, if a tie were to happen, it would likely prompt a debate about abolishing the Electoral College system, Shapiro said.

However, amending the Constitution — one of the ways to get rid of the Electoral College — is “very difficult,” Beck said.

This story was originally published August 22, 2024 at 2:37 PM with the headline "What happens if there’s an Electoral College tie? Trump could end up with unlikely VP."