What do polls, early votes reveal about 2024 race in Pennsylvania, a key swing state?

Correction: An earlier version of this article stated that Pennsylvania does not offer early in-person voting. The state technically allows early in-person voting through a process that uses mail-in ballots.

With less than two weeks until Election Day, all eyes are on the all-important state of Pennsylvania.

With its 19 electoral votes, it is the most valuable prize among the battleground states, and it will likely prove pivotal in securing victory for either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump.

“Both parties obviously are pummeling Pennsylvania with visits as well as advertising,” Jennifer Jensen, a professor of political science at Lehigh University in Bethlehem, told McClatchy News. “I do feel like we’re sort of ground zero.”

Given the state’s outsize significance in the election, here is a breakdown of what recent polls and early voting data reveal about the race in the Keystone State.

What polls show

Numerous statewide polls indicate the race could scarcely be closer, with neither Harris nor Trump holding a statistically significant advantage.

According to a polling average from FiveThirtyEight — an election analysis site — the two candidates are dead-even with one another. A polling average compiled by Nate Silver, a political pollster, also has them both tied at 48%.

Similarly, a Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll conducted between Oct. 16 and 18 has Trump and Harris tied at 48%. The poll, which sampled 1,423 likely voters in Pennsylvania, has a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points.

Other polls conducted in the past month have one of the candidates leading by up to several points — but these leads are within the margin of error.

For example, Trump edged out Harris by two points — 50% to 48% — in a Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll conducted between Oct. 16 and 20. It sampled 420 likely voters and has a margin of error of up to 5 percentage points.

In contrast, Harris led the former president 49% to 48% in an Emerson College poll conducted between Oct. 21 and 22. Three percent of respondents said they were voting for someone else or were undecided. The poll sampled 860 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.

Additionally, a poll from the Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research provides further evidence that the race is on a razor’s edge.

In the poll, conducted between Oct. 9 and 20, Harris led Trump 48% to 44% among 794 registered voters. However, Trump outpaced Harris 50% to 49% with 583 likely voters. The poll has a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points — putting both leads within the margin.

Based on the polls, the race is “too close to call,” Jensen said.

“If the polls are off by a couple percent in one direction we get Harris, and if they’re off by a couple percent in the other direction, we get Trump.”

Echoing this sentiment, Michael Nelson, a professor of political science at Pennsylvania State University, told McClatchy News “there’s really no indication that either candidate has an edge right now.”

What early voting data shows

Early voting data thus far paints a picture favorable to Democrats — but this data is far from determinative.

Pennsylvania allows voters to request mail-in ballots up until Oct. 29, and it also offers early in-person voting through a process that uses mail-in ballots.

As of Oct. 24, about 1.2 million early votes have been cast and about 1.9 million have been requested, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab.

The ballots returned so far lean heavily in Harris’ favor, with 60% submitted by registered Democrats and 30% submitted by registered Republicans.

The partisan gap is even wider in certain areas of the state, including in Allegheny County — which encompasses Pittsburgh. Here, 105,960 ballots have been returned by Democrats compared to 30,725 returned by Republicans, according to the Election Lab.

Republicans, though, have narrow leads in a handful of small counties throughout the state, including Lycoming, Pike and Wayne.

None of this is very surprising as Democrats have tended to utilize mail-in voting more, Jensen said.

“Strategically, telling Republicans not to trust mail-in voting was a disadvantage to the Republican party, and I think they’re trying to undo some of that now,” Jensen said, referring to Trump’s past comments that were critical of mail-in voting.

Come Election Day, though, it’s likely that Republicans will turn up in significant numbers, Nelson said.

As to how much can be gleaned from early voting data, experts stressed caution.

“I am hesitant to make predictions too much on mail-in ballots,” Jensen said, noting that there is still time for voters to request and send in their ballots.

Similarly, Paul Beck, an emeritus professor of political science at Ohio State University, previously told McClatchy News, “I worry about drawing any inferences from early voting data.”

Ultimately, the election result is going to come down to voter turnout — not just in early voting, but on Election Day. And it could come down to just a few thousand votes, Jensen said.

“This one is really tight,” Jensen said. “I can’t imagine that they will be calling this on Tuesday evening.”

This story was originally published October 24, 2024 at 11:21 AM with the headline "What do polls, early votes reveal about 2024 race in Pennsylvania, a key swing state?."