California Election Day guide: What to watch for as the primary results come in

Super Tuesday has arrived, and more delegates are up for grabs in California than any other state in the nation.

It’s not just the 2020 presidential race that’s on the ballot, however. California Democrats will look to build on their super-majorities in the state Legislature and retain key congressional seats in races that swung their way in the 2018 midterms.

Here are some key numbers, races and scenarios to watch for as the first wave of results come in tonight:

Meeting the 15% threshold

To get a pledged delegate in the state, presidential candidates must secure 15 percent support statewide or in a congressional district. Of the 415 pledged delegates, 271 will be awarded locally and 144 will get allocated statewide. An additional 79 party leaders could cast a vote at this summer’s Democratic National Committee nominating convention if no candidate secures the 1,991 total pledged delegates to clinch the nomination outright.

Polls consistently show Sanders with at the top of the pack with about 35 percent of the vote, while a cluster of other candidates – Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Michael Bloomberg – are closely competitive for that 15 percent mark. Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar and Tom Steyer have dropped out, though it’s still possible for them to win delegates.

Feeling the Bern

It will take weeks to count all of the outstanding ballots in California, but the first wave of results will be a good indicator of whether Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders will win the state’s primary election.

Early voters tend to be whiter, wealthier, more highly educated and more conservative than the general population. If Sanders takes an early lead when the initial results come in shortly after 8 p.m., he is likely in store for a good night. A strong performance on election night in California would give him momentum going into other states and effectively cement his frontrunner status.

One key indicator will be the results from California’s 40th congressional district. It has a larger share of Latinos and a larger share of young people than any other congressional district in the state. These are two key groups in Sanders’ base of support. If Sanders isn’t dominating this area, he could be in trouble.

Bloomberg’s last stand?

Bloomberg adopted the unorthodox strategy of skipping the nation’s four earliest voting states. Following a strong performance from Biden in South Carolina, the former New York City mayor could be in deep trouble if he performs poorly in California — a state where he has spent tens millions of dollars on television ads to give him a fighting chance.

His campaign has sought to lower expectations ahead of Super Tuesday. After a Sacramento rally on Feb. 3, Bloomberg said he could still continue his campaign even if he has a poor showing. He did, however, acknowledge “it would obviously be more difficult” to win.

He said in a recent interview with “60 Minutes” that he’ll remain in the race even if he doesn’t finish in the top three on Super Tuesday.

“There’s an election seven or so days later,” Bloomberg said. “There’s another one 14 days later. There’s a number of elections after that.”

One statewide ballot measure

Gov. Gavin Newsom devoted his fundraising energies to securing passage of Proposition 13 on the statewide ballot. If voters approve it, California would be able to sell $15 billion in new bonds to help build and repair schools. It includes $9 billion for preschools and K-12 schools and $6 billion for public universities and community colleges.

Legislative contests

Several competitive races in California could increase or decrease the Democratic super-majorities in the Legislature. Here’s a quick list:

• Senate District 23: Pickup opportunity for Democrats as a GOP incumbent is termed out.
• Senate District 29: Pickup opportunity for Democrats, who lost the seat after Democrat Josh Newman was recalled.
• Senate District 37: Pickup opportunity for Democrats against vulnerable Orange County GOP incumbent John Moorlach.
• Assembly District 1: Republican Megan Dahle faces a No Party Preference challenger, though the district is traditionally strongly red.
• Assembly District 38: Pickup opportunity for Republicans, as the Democratic incumbent is running for Congress.
• Assembly District 42: Incumbent Chad Mayes switched from Republican to No Party Preference. He faces a challenge from the right.
• Assembly District 72: Pickup opportunity for Democrats against vulnerable incumbent Tyler Diep.
• Assembly District 73: Pickup opportunity for Democrats amid internal GOP struggle. Incumbent Republican Bill Brough is seeking re-election after being accused of unwanted sexual advances and campaign misspending.
• Assembly District 74: Pickup opportunity for Republicans against vulnerable Democratic incumbent Cottie Petrie-Norris.
• Assembly District 77: Brian Maienschein switched from Republican to Democrat, and the GOP is looking to unseat him.

Congressional contests

Following a dominant performance in the 2018 midterms, several House Democrats risk losing their seats in 2020. These are two races worth monitoring:

• Congressional District 50: Former GOP Rep. Darrell Issa, anti-gas tax advocate Carl DeMaio and Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar are competing to fill the vacant seat previously held by Duncan Hunter. Hunter is facing sentencing later this month after pleading guilty to conspiracy to make personal use of campaign money.

• Congressional District 25: The race to fill former Rep. Katie Hill’s seat is a hot one. There’s Assemblywoman Christy Smith, D-Santa Clarita, and Democrat Cenk Uygur, creator of The Young Turks. You also have Republican Steve Knight, who lost to Hill in 2018, and George Papadopoulos, a former Trump adviser who served time for lying to the FBI.

Election Day confusion?

No party preference voters must request a Democratic ballot to vote in that primary or switch their party affiliation to Republican to cast a GOP ballot. American Independent Party voters need to change their registration altogether.

California’s complex rules could confuse voters and slow down lines at certain polling sites.

But the state allows same-day conditional voter registration at county offices, polling places and voting centers, so it’s not too late to get the correct ballot.

Half of the Democratic candidates on the presidential primary ballot have dropped out, leaving the 1.8 million Californians who have already returned their ballots out of luck. Those who already sent in their ballots cannot vote again.

But if you filled out a ballot for a candidate that dropped out and haven’t yet submitted it, you can bring it to the polls to get a new one, even if it’s marked.

Don’t wait up for close races

It’s possible we won’t know for weeks the final results in close contests or how many delegates each presidential candidate won. State policies that make voting widely accessible mean that counties will be counting millions of outstanding ballots long after election day.

While the first wave of results will come in when polls close at 8 p.m., counties won’t have to send their certified results to the state until April 3. Secretary of State Alex Padilla has until April 10 to compile them in the official statement of vote.

This story was originally published March 3, 2020 at 5:00 AM.