A crowded Democratic field opened a window for Republicans to grab this Assembly seat
California Democrats are poised to maintain a supermajority in the state Capitol come November, but in a Southern California district, they set themselves up to lose a seat.
The ballot included five Democrats — one dropped out before the race — and two Republicans to represent Assembly District 38.
Assemblywoman Christy Smith of Santa Clarita flipped the seat blue in 2018, but the crowded 2020 field split liberal support and left the purple district with two GOP candidates as of Sunday evening.
Republican Suzette Valladares maintained a lead with 32.4 percent on Sunday, with Republican Lucie Volotzky in second place with 18.5 percent, according to the Associated Press.
“This election was a referendum by voters wanting better balance in the Legislature,” Valladares said in a statement. “Republican voters, along with those without a party preference, chose me by a significant margin because I’m talking about those change-oriented issues that matter to them.”
Results aren’t final, but the top three Democrats each so far have collected between 11.4 and 11.9 percent of the vote, with Kelvin Driscoll leading the pack.
Smith left the Assembly to run for the seat vacated by former Democratic Rep. Katie Hill, who resigned amid allegations of sexually inappropriate behavior about a year after she won her election over the district’s Republican incumbent.
Tuesday night represents both an anomaly and irony, said Mike Madrid, a Republican political strategist. California’s top-two primary system routinely shuts out GOP contenders. This time, it worked in their favor.
“That is fascinating because the Republicans will win a seat despite themselves,” Madrid said. “For 10 years, that’s been the bane of their existence.”
Defending vulnerable incumbents
Democratic leadership decided not to coalesce around one candidate, and the state party withheld its endorsement for a reason, said Bill Wong, senior political adviser to Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon, D-Lakewood, and political director for the Assembly Democrats.
Wong said it wasn’t worth playing favorites and frustrating party members who’d independently or in groups formally supported Driscoll, Annie Cho, Brandii Grace and Dina Cervantes. Susan Christopher dropped out of the race after qualifying for the ballot.
“(Rendon’s) goal is not to win every seat in the state,” Wong said. “He has a very strong Democratic majority in the Assembly. His first priority is to protect incumbents.”
By that metric, Tuesday was a great night for the caucus.
Targeted Democrats included Assemblyman Brian Maienschein, a former Republican who joined the party in 2019, and Assemblywomen Tasha Boerner Horvath and Sabrina Cervantes. The three automatically advanced to November along with their only contender, each a Republican.
Assemblywoman Cottie Petrie-Norris will head to the general election with 50.7 percent of the vote, as will GOP candidate Diane Dixon.
‘Family infighting’
As the only Republican running in Assembly District 57, it wasn’t hard for Jessica Martinez to earn GOP support and land with nearly 30 percent of the vote.
Still, Martinez said she remained cautiously optimistic on Tuesday, given the amount spent on and name recognition of two Democrats in the race: labor-favored Lisa Calderon and big business-backed Sylvia Rubio.
Both Democrats come from political family dynasties. Calderon is running to succeed stepson Ian Calderon, who followed his father and two uncles into the Legislature, and Rubio has two sisters in the Capitol. Interest groups also dumped more than $2.7 million into the race, making it the most expensive independent expenditure battleground in the state, according to political data guide California Target Book.
“I really figured they would be the top two,” Martinez said.
But their names appeared on the ballot with six other Democrats.
Calderon, with Sunday’s count, holds a 2.5-point lead over Rubio with 20.2 percent.
The seat still represents a safe blue district and smooth sailing in November for Democrats. The same goes for Santa Barbara’s Assembly District 37, despite a primary race of six Democrats. The lone GOP competitor leads the race, but the combined Democratic vote more than doubles Republican Charles Cole’s
The pattern repeated itself among eight Democrats in Santa Clara’s Assembly District 25, and five in Sunnyvale’s Senate District 13.
A Republican-Democrat showdown is still preferable in blue regions, strategists say, even if it takes a bit of internal discord to get there.
“We don’t like those races because it’s kind of like family infighting,” Wong said. “But at the same time, they would guarantee a Democrat coming into the Legislature.”
What’s more important is policy, Wong continued, and who backs the candidates.
Oil companies supported Rubio; labor representatives, Calderon. The corporations’ energy committee lobbied for Democratic Modesto City Councilman Mani Grewal, while labor groups endorsed Stockton Democrat and Assemblywoman Susan Eggman in the Senate District 5 race. Unions triumphed in both cases.
“The speaker has made it every clear on how he feels on big oil and many of the candidates funded by these IEs that played big in these races lost,” Wong said. “He’s pleased with that.”
A committee funded by realtors failed to block Democrat Steve Bennett in AD 37, though the group did knock out Johnathon Ervin in Assembly District 36.
That victory cleared an easier path for Republican Assemblyman Tom Lackey of Palmdale in November. He’ll likely face Steve Fox, a former legislator whose legacy includes alleged sexual harassment that led to a six-figure settlement with a former staffer.
This story was originally published March 9, 2020 at 4:00 AM.