How much is in the rainy day fund? + West Coast vs Old South + Who won’t get a stimulus check

Good morning and happy Tuesday!

DIPPING INTO THE RAINY DAY FUND

Just how much money does California have socked away for a rainy day, anyway?

According to the Legislative Analyst’s Office, there’s just about $17.5 billion stashed away in the state’s reserve accounts, with most of that money sitting in the Budget Stabilization Account.

Because of the economic hit delivered by the coronavirus, California is expected to see billions less in revenue for the 2019-20 and 2020-21 fiscal years than Gov. Gavin Newsom had projected. The state may soon have to dip into those reserves. And it may not be enough.

“Compared to prior recessions, the state enters this period of economic uncertainty with significant reserves. That said, in the past, we have found that a budget problem associated with a typical recession could significantly exceed this sum,” the report concluded.

To access the funds in those reserves, Newsom must declare a budget emergency, which he may do in response to a natural or man-made disaster; both houses of the Legislature also must pass a majority vote to draw from the rainy day fund.

The Legislature is limited in how much it can withdraw, according to the Legislative Analyst’s Office. It may only withdraw either the amount needed to maintain general fund spending at the highest level of the past three enacted budgets, or it may withdraw half of the Budget Stabilization Account balance.

“In that case, the state could — in one budget cycle — use up to half of the (Budget Stabilization Account) balance to address the current-year budget problem and still have the option to use the remaining balance to address the budget problem for 2020‑21 as well,” the report said.

WEST COAST VS OLD SOUTH?

How have California, Oregon and Washington, three blue bastions, fared in their handling of the coronavirus compared to the ruby red Old South states of Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina and Tennessee?

The blog Trouble in God’s Country compared the two regions, which have roughly equivalent populations, and found that while the West Coast has a higher COVID-19 mortality rate, the Old South has a significantly higher infection rate.

Blogger Charles Hayslett concluded that “it seems increasingly difficult to argue that politics and public policy choices aren’t playing a significant role in how different parts of the country fare in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Hayslett runs the reader through a tick-tock of when the West Coast and Old South governors initiated a stay-at-home order, beginning with Gov. Newsom’s order on March 19.

While the West Coast governors were quick to tell people to stay home, Hayslett points out that the governors of the Old South were slow to hand down similar directives. Now, Hayslett’s data shows, those states have higher infection and mortality rates than California.

You can read Hayslett’s post here.

CALIFORNIANS WHO WON’T GET A CHECK

While those coronavirus federal rebate checks will help many, millions of Californians will be excluded from receiving their benefits, writes the California Budget and Policy Center.

The center released a report titled “Federal Fiscal Relief and COVID-19: Implications for Californians.”

The report points out that to receive the federal rebate check, you must have filed your tax return with a Social Security number. Californians who filed with federally issued Individual Taxpayer Identification Numbers, which are commonly used by undocumented immigrants, and their dependents will be excluded from receiving the checks.

“This exclusion will exacerbate inequities in an already inequitable tax system and harm communities of color who have likely been disproportionately hurt by the COVID-19 economic shutdown,” the report said.

The report points out as well that people with low incomes, or no taxable income, could also be excluded from receiving a check because they are not required to file a tax return.

“Suddenly requiring them to do so in order to receive the rebate would be burdensome, especially when a statewide stay-in-home and local shelter-in-place orders are making it challenging to access tax preparation services, which most people rely on in order to file,” the report said.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“The popular show #TigerKing makes one thing quite clear — we need to pass the #BigCatSafetyAct. None of these people should be able to own big cats and operate private roadside zoos.”

- Rep. Linda Sanchez, D-Whittier, via Twitter.

Best of the Bee:

• Sacramento’s shuttered Sleep Train Arena will reopen in two weeks as an emergency field hospital, the latest in a series of coronavirus crisis care centers under construction around California, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced on Monday, via Sophia Bollag and Tony Bizjak.

• Fifty-three people who work at California state prisons have tested positive for COVID-19, according to new figures released on Sunday, via Wes Venteicher.

• It’s the moment we are all waiting for. And worrying about. When will the growing wave of coronavirus infections peak in the Sacramento region and California? Experts say the next few weeks are critical: The magnitude of the virus’ sweep is about to come into focus, via Tony Bizjak and Alexandra Yoon-Hendricks.