Republican flips California congressional seat. What does that mean for November?
Republicans are taking a victory lap after their candidate in a special election flipped a congressional seat previously held by Democratic Rep. Katie Hill, giving the GOP a sense of momentum after losing seven California seats two years ago.
But Republican Mike Garcia’s win over Democrat Christy Smith might not signal a red wave in November when President Donald Trump will be on the ballot, election experts said.
“As with all special elections, I’d urge caution about projecting the results forward to the fall,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of the nonpartisan political predicting site Sabato’s Crystal Ball. “The format of this election appeared to benefit Republicans; turnout should be much higher in the fall with the presidential race on the ballot.”
Congressman-elect Garcia, a former Navy fighter pilot, defeated Assemblywoman Smith in the special election for California’s 25th congressional district. Tuesday. Smith conceded the race Wednesday afternoon.
Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc. in California, told McClatchy Wednesday morning “this one is over.” Republicans turned in ballots by mail early, and Democrats did not catch up when polls opened.
“While Democrats were thinking they could crawl back some Democratic gains from the in-person voting, they lost that portion of the electorate by a whopping 40-points,” Mitchell said Wednesday morning.
Though the two will have to face off again in November, it’s a loss for Democrats.
Former Rep. Hill won the seat in 2018 and resigned in October due to allegations of inappropriate relationships with both campaign and congressional staffers.
Prior to Hill’s win, the seat was long in GOP hands. Former Republican Rep. Howard “Buck” McKeon held the district from 1993 to through his retirement in 2015.
Republicans made the case Wednesday that Garcia’s win was good news for them in November.
“Garcia’s victory marked the first time the GOP has flipped a California district red in 22 years,” reads a memo distributed by the Congressional Leadership Fund, a political action committee controlled by House Republican leadership. “With several other key pickup opportunities in (House Speaker) Nancy Pelosi’s backyard, GOP candidates can learn from Garcia’s success and replicate it across the Golden State.”
But Kondik said observers shouldn’t put too much stock in Garcia’s victory when looking toward House elections in the November general election.
“Garcia ran a strong race and essentially matched Christy Smith in fundraising. Republicans have strong candidates in some other California seats, but not all of them,” Kondik said, listing districts currently represented by freshman Democratic Reps. Josh Harder, Katie Porter and Mike Levin.
Kondik also said not to count out the role of incumbency on House races — neither Garcia nor Smith were incumbents, which is not the case in the other six districts California Democrats won from Republicans in 2018. That gives them more of an advantage than Smith had in the race.
But this election could show an advantage for Republicans on mail-in ballots during the coronavirus pandemic. While many Republicans have criticized expanding the mail-in ballot process, the election of Garcia was largely conducted that way.
“My understanding is that mail ballots generally skew Republican in that state,” Kondik said, referring to California. “So this specific format might help Republicans.”
This story was originally published May 13, 2020 at 3:37 PM.
.jpg)