Republicans in California are already a minority. They could lose another 4 Senate seats

California Republicans already have limited sway in the state Capitol, holding just 11 of the 40 seats in the Senate.

It could get even worse for the GOP on Nov. 3.

Three incumbents this year are fighting for their political lives in purple districts once considered conservative strongholds. The state party is also working hard to keep a currently red open seat from turning blue.

“All four of those seats are competitive. It’s possible Republicans could lose all four,” said Republican consultant Rob Stutzman. “They largely reflect these districts that continue to morph under the feet of these Republicans.”

Up against a wealthy California Democratic Party, which has funneled significant sums into these swing districts, the Republicans also have to delicately balance their talking points with President Donald Trump’s more divisive rhetoric, Stutzman said. They have to woo moderate conservatives who might traditionally vote red, but have grown agitated with the White House.

“The Republican brand in California is rough, especially under Trump,” Stutzman said. “Gravity could take them down.”

To offset these disadvantages, the state party recruited 40,000 volunteers, trained 18,000 so-called “neighborhood team leaders” to bolster support for their local candidates and made about 8.4 million voter contacts, said Bryan Watkins, deputy executive director for the California Republican Party.

“They are tough races,” Watkins said. “(But) the Democrats in Sacramento and their one-party rule are really out of touch. When you make the argument that you don’t always have to be with us, but sending a Republican to Sacramento to add some balance might be the right thing, some folks are like, ‘Oh yeah, that’s a good point.’”

Here’s where Republicans are fighting:

An Orange County legacy

Twenty-six years ago, John Moorlach accurately predicted Orange County was barreling toward bankruptcy under a risky investment plan that, as a certified public accountant, he recognized early on as unsustainable.

Moorlach’s financial savvy propelled him into a decades-long career in politics. He earned a reputation as a sharp conservative voters trusted to lead the region out of fiscal straits, first as the county treasurer-tax collector, then as a supervisor and now as a state senator.

That all began in 1994 when 52.5% of the nearly 1.2 million registered voters in Orange County were Republican.

Today, Democrats narrowly outnumber Republicans 36.7% to 34.3% among the county’s 1.7 million registered voters. Close to a quarter of voters are registered as No Party Preference and many residents are too young to remember Moorlach’s political ascent in the 1990s.

“I go on a college campus and talk about bankruptcy and it’s like, ‘What? Orange County filed for bankruptcy?’” Moorlach said.

Moorlach is now in a contentious battle to maintain his Senate District 37 seat against Democratic challenger Dave Min.

Stutzman agreed that Moorlach’s district has “changed dramatically underneath him,” and the Orange County political vet has struggled to stay relevant.

“He has a strong legacy brand in Orange County,” Stutzman said. “But his heroic efforts in Orange County bankruptcy have aged. The shelf life of that brand may be starting to diminish.”

Min, the Democrat, also said Moorlach’s not the only candidate who knows how to crunch numbers. A UC Irvine law professor who once worked at the Securities and Exchange Commission, Min said he could go “toe to toe” with Moorlach on economics, while also being the candidate most in touch with his district’s kitchen-table issues.

Min claims Moorlach is an anti-science, Trump Republican who voted against controversial vaccine crackdown laws both in 2015 and last year, and denies the fundamentals of climate change. Sure, the district’s demographics are changing, Min said, but the Republicans are also “fed up” with the status quo of their party.

All signs indicate a tough race for Moorlach, who won his March 3 primary with 47.3% of the vote. The two Democrats running against him together secured the other 52.7%.

Three elections in four years

Sen. Ling Ling Chang and former state Sen. Josh Newman are familiar foes.

Newman narrowly defeated Chang in 2016 by 2,498 votes, less than a percentage point for total ballots cast in the Senate District 29 race, but the Republican grabbed the seat spanning parts of Los Angeles, Orange and San Bernardino Counties following his recall two years later after he supported a bill to hike the state’s gas tax.

Chang advanced to November with 47.4% of the vote in the March primary. Newman and his fellow Democratic challenger earned a combined 52.6%.

Chang’s strategy, according to her political consultant Jim Nygren, is to nail Newman for his record on taxes and amplify her COVID-19 relief efforts in the district.

“There’s voting on legislation, which is part of the job, and passing bills,” Nygren said. “But then there’s helping constituents when they have problems, and she’s been very effective with that.”

Newman said his victory in 2016 is proof the district has and continues to change, meaning it’s time for him to head back to the Capitol. He said he wants to continue highlighting veterans’ issues and doubling down on the state’s homelessness crisis.

“I’m making effectively the same case as in 2016 and using my record in the state Senate,” Newman said. “I was characterized in a certain way during the recall and the truth of my approach and my record is actually quite different.”

‘A forgotten district’

Sen. Scott Wilk of Santa Clarita, who nabbed 53.1% of the vote in March amid a primary against four Democrats, often votes with his colleagues across the aisle.

This year, he was the only Republican to approve a proposal to let voters decide whether to reinstate affirmative action. He also broke from the majority of his party in voting yes for a bill to ban officers from using chokeholds.

But his Senate District 21 challenger, workers’ rights attorney Kipp Mueller, has argued that Wilk fails on climate change action and hasn’t aggressively fought for district resources.

Mueller wants to pursue legislation to establish a right to housing in California, he said, and to represent a “forgotten district” north of Los Angeles that’s long been neglected of the basics. Mueller said he became involved in politics when former Democratic Rep. Katie Hill was running for Congress to represent the same area where he’s now running a campaign.

“I saw an area that was much more Democrat and just interested in change here,” Mueller said. “Really organic activism going on, and I was part of it.”

Wilk’s campaign did not respond to a request for an interview, but has painted Mueller in campaign advertisements as the candidate who will raise property taxes and push “the same Sacramento policies that are failing California.”

A school board showdown

Where Republicans feel the most optimistic is in Senate District 23, where two school board members are duking it out to replace termed-out Sen. Mike Morrell, R-Rancho Cucamonga.

Republican candidate Rosilicie Ochoa-Bogh serves on the Yucaipa-Calimesa Unified School District board, while her Democratic opponent, Abigail Medina, sits on the board for the San Bernardino City Unified School District.

Ochoa-Bogh advanced from the March primary to the November general election with 24.8% of the vote. Medina is headed to November with 28.1% of the ballots.

Craig Murphy, spokesman for Ochoa-Bogh, said the campaign is focused on highlighting how the Republican will protect her district from higher taxes and California’s exorbitant costs of living. Murphy said Ochoa-Bogh’s background as the daughter of Mexican immigrants and her plan to spend less but focus on “key issues like police and education” makes her the ideal Capitol candidate.

“We’re in a good situation,” Murphy said. “We don’t have to worry about sailing against the wind here, we have the wind against our back in this district.”

This story was originally published October 12, 2020 at 5:00 AM.