California unprepared for brutal ‘heat storm’ that caused blackouts, officials tell Newsom

The managers of California’s electricity network Tuesday blamed a pileup of poor planning and bad luck for the two nights of rolling blackouts in August that plunged hundreds of thousands of residents into darkness during an oppressive heat wave.

Three separate agencies that oversee the state’s troubled power system, in a 121-page “root cause analysis” found no single reason for the blackouts of Aug. 14 and Aug. 15, which affected a total of more than 800,000 homes and businesses.

Instead, they cited unusually hot weather, which left some areas sweltering at 110 degrees or worse; unexpected shutoffs of power plants at critical moments; and forecasting errors by major utilities.

The latter problem meant the utilities had underestimated the amount of power they’d need during the heat wave by more than 3,000 megawatts each day — enough to power hundreds of thousands of homes.

How the forecasting error happened on back-to-back days is “something that we’re still trying to understand,” said Mark Rothleder, a vice president of the Independent System Operator, in a conference call with reporters.

The agencies also acknowledged what officials have been saying for weeks — that California is struggling with its transition to an energy grid that’s heavily reliant on renewable energy. Inadequate planning has left the state vulnerable during early-evening hours, when air-conditioning use is still heavy but the grid has lost thousands of megawatts worth of solar power as the sun sets.

Beyond that, current planning methods “are not designed to fully address an extreme heat storm like the one experienced in mid-August,” the report said.

“We mostly plan for an average weather event,” Siva Gunda, deputy director at the Energy Commission, told reporters.

The report represents the official response to the blackouts by the ISO, which runs the grid; the Public Utilities Commission, which regulates the retail utilities; and the Energy Commission, which grants permits for new plants. It follows Gov. Gavin Newsom’s demand for an investigation in the immediate aftermath of the blackouts.

“These blackouts, which occurred without prior warning or enough time for preparation, are unacceptable and unbefitting of the nation’s largest and most innovative state,” the governor wrote to the agencies in August.

First major crisis in nearly two decades

The blackouts were the first since the energy crisis of 2001 — when investigators later discovered that electricity supplies were being brazenly manipulated by traders and power generators in order to jack up prices.

The latest outages occurred even though demand for electricity, while considerably higher than usual because of the hot weather, didn’t set any records. The most energy ever used by Californians came in July 2006, during an intense heat wave that killed 140 people but didn’t force blackouts.

Still, it was incredibly hot — the report said Aug. 15 was the hottest day in California in 35 years and Aug. 14 was the third hottest. The entire West heated up, making it harder to procure imports from other states that have become a staple of California’s ability to withstand heat waves.

Bad luck played a role in the blackouts; some available imports from the Pacific Northwest didn’t make it through because of congested transmission lines. Power plant failures robbed the grid of valuable resources.

Officials continued to insist, as they have for weeks, that California’s heavy reliance on renewable energy wasn’t to blame for the power outages — even though declines in solar and wind power put a crimp on the grid both days. Instead, they said the state must do a better job of requiring that PG&E Corp. and other major utilities do a better job of lining up enough power well in advance.

Already the Public Utilities Commission is working with utilities on procuring additional supplies, with an additional 2,400 megawatts expected to come online by next August. Much of that is in new large-scale battery farms that can store solar power for use after the sun goes down.

“That will be a big step,” said the PUC’s Edward Randolph.

Last month, in a move that angered environmentalists, the State Water Resources Control Board postponed the planned shutdown of multiple high-polluting gas-fired power plants in Southern California. The plants, all located on the beach, were due to close by Dec. 31 because of the harm they cause to marine life. The water board’s decision gives them up to three more years to operate.

Newsom defended the decision, calling the postponement “a small step back” in the state’s efforts to use more renewable energy. On average, about one-third of the state’s electricity supply comes from renewable sources, a figure that must grow to 100% by 2045 under state law.

This story was originally published October 6, 2020 at 4:48 PM.