California voters divided over business property tax measure Proposition 15, poll finds

Two weeks ahead of election day, voters are closely divided over a measure that would increase property taxes for large businesses, according to a Public Policy Institute of California poll that found 49% of likely voters support the measure.

The fight over Proposition 15 has become one of the most prominent of the election cycle, with business groups opposing it and unions advocating for it

It would dramatically overhaul the state’s property tax system, which currently taxes all property based on purchase price. Proposition 15 would change that for businesses with more than $3 million in commercial or industrial property, which would be taxed at market rate under the measure.

The proposition would hike taxes for many large businesses, while providing billions of dollars in additional revenue for schools and local governments. Supporters say that during the recession that tax revenue is desperately needed and that the measure protects small businesses and consumers from higher costs.

Opponents argue a recession is the wrong time to increase taxes and that there will be indirect costs to small businesses and consumers.

The poll, which surveyed 1,185 likely voters from Oct. 9-18, found that 45% oppose the measure and 6% are undecided. The results show the race to be within the poll’s margin of error, which is plus or minus 4.3% for likely voters.

“Californians remain closely divided on Proposition 15 as its proponents and opponents make their closing arguments to voters over the next few weeks,” PPIC President Mark Baldassare said in a statement.

The poll shows a narrowing gap between supporters and opponents from the last time the PPIC polled voters. In September, the organization found 51% of likely voters supported the measure, 40% opposed and about 9% were undecided.

Michael Bustamante, a spokesman for the opposition campaign, cheered the poll, saying the drop in support “validates what the No on Prop 15 campaign has said for months: the more voters learn... the more voters are inclined to reject Prop 15.”

He pointed to potential negative effects on small businesses and farms. Although the measure exempts small businesses and agricultural land, opponents argue small businesses that rent their spaces will see some pass-through costs and that farms will see higher taxes on some fixtures on their land. Independent experts say there likely will be some effect on small businesses and farms, but it’s too soon to say how much.

In the final weeks, the main campaign supporting Proposition 15 is emphasizing to voters that the measure will close tax loopholes that allow large businesses to keep their property taxes low and give the money to firefighters, schools and other local services, said campaign spokesman Alex Stack. He said the poll results aren’t surprising.

“It’s pretty much reflecting the polling we’ve seen to date. We keep getting a plurality of voters,” he said. “The opponents have not once out-polled us.”

Democrats are still far more likely to support the measure than independents or Republicans. Renters are also more likely to approve of the measure than homeowners.

Although the measure would not affect residential property, opponents have targeted those voters with their message about protecting Proposition 13, the 1978 measure that set all property taxes based on purchase value.

Among those who said they would vote yes on Proposition 15, 40% called the outcome “very important.” Among those who would vote no, 51% rated the outcome “very important.”

This story was originally published October 21, 2020 at 9:14 PM.