Here’s what we’ll know — and what we won’t — on election night in California

The day is here. Months of contentious campaigning has all led up to this week, when voters across the U.S. have their last chance to cast ballots in the 2020 election.

This election cycle is unique for many reasons, but perhaps the most notable one is the amount of distrust surrounding the election itself.

According to a poll conducted last week by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, 40% of Californians expressed skepticism about whether the presidential election will be conducted in a way that’s fair and open.

“The lack of public confidence that all votes will be counted and that both parties will respect the election outcome are worrisome signs of a political system that is under unusual stress,” IGS co-director Eric Schickler said about the survey.

Contrary to President Donald Trump’s erroneous claim that the country must have final vote totals on Nov. 3, election officials and voting experts say tallying the final results could take days or weeks, depending on how close the results are.

In California, mail ballots can arrive up to 17 days after the election (though they still have to be postmarked by Nov. 3).

So how to approach the evening?

“Patience, patience, patience,” said Jonathan Mehta Stein, executive director of Common Cause California, a nonprofit focused on election transparency and democracy.

“We’re trying to tell everybody that a long vote count means we’re doing everything we can to count every eligible vote,” he said. “It’s a feature, not a bug, of our democracy.”

Calling close races

It’s likely that Californians will know which presidential candidate won the state early in the night. Democrat Joe Biden is expect to win the state easily. But in races that aren’t a landslide, results may not be clear for several days as election officials count all the ballots.

“There are a couple of close races in California’s congressional delegation, where the late-arriving vote-by-mail ballots, and provisional ballots counted late, may be the margin of victory for a candidate,” Mehta Stein said.

As of Monday, more than 11 million ballots already had been returned in California, said Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data, Inc.

“That’s far beyond anything we’ve ever seen in early vote in California,” he said.

Those results will be reported after the polls close on election night at 8 p.m. The first wave of results, shortly after the polls close, are likely to skew heavily Democratic, Mitchell said. In-person votes cast on Election Day, which are more likely to be Republican, will come later in the night, he said.

In past years, county election officials were able to start opening envelopes and processing ballots 10 days before election day. This year, due to the high volume of mail ballots, officials were allowed to process them starting 29 days in advance.

After polls close on election night, mail ballots that have been processed will be counted almost immediately. Those cast at the polls will trickle in throughout the evening. But while a majority of votes will be counted on election night or soon after, election officials could still see mail ballots arriving for two weeks.

Officials will also have to verify any provisional ballots cast at the polls, which could take some time. Provisional ballots are cast when someone is not registered or the status of their mail ballot is in question. Provisional ballots are counted once they are verified.

In 2016, Californians cast a total of 14.6 million votes. Of those, about 8.4 million were returned by mail. But this year, Mitchell expects total turnout to be much higher — around 16 to 17 million votes.

“That leaves a ton of votes to be cast on Election Day, either by people mailing them on Election Day, going to drop boxes, or going in person and voting at the polls,” Mitchell said. “I think we were going to confront a capacity problem on Election Day.”

Depending on how voters choose to cast their ballot on Election Day, California could see long lines at polling places, Mitchell said.

California won’t know its final voter turnout numbers on election night.

Two days after the election, counties will provide an estimate of their remaining unprocessed ballots report. The Secretary of State’s office will post this “unprocessed ballots report” online and provide daily updates as new estimates are provided from the county elections offices.

Sam Mahood, a spokesperson for the Secretary of State’s office, said “it will take days/weeks after the election to get a true sense of turnout.”

How are races decided?

Many will look to the Associated Press for election results. This year, the AP will call nearly 7,000 races across the country, starting with the White House and reaching down the ballot to every seat in every state legislature.

Races are called when the AP is confident a candidate has won, simply described as the moment the trailing candidate no longer has a path to victory. The AP stresses that it doesn’t speculate on close races or call likely or apparent winners. If AP cannot definitively say a candidate has won, it won’t engage in speculation, the outlet said.

There may be some situations where races are too close for the AP to call. In races where the margin between candidates is less than 0.5%, the outlet may not decide to call a race. Such an event occurred in the 2000 Presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore. The AP determined at that time that the margin between Bush and Gore in Florida was too close to make a determination.

But the final, official results of races are not determined by cable news pundits or even the AP. They are certified by government officials.

In California, the chief elections official is the Secretary of State. Counties have up to 30 days after Election Day to verify the ballots, and must report their final results for the presidential contest to the state by Dec. 1. Results in all other state and federal contests must be reported by Dec. 4. The Secretary of State will then certify the results on Dec. 11.

Results for other states

Unlike California, some states aren’t able to open and process their mail ballots prior to election night, which means the first results you see may not be a good indication of the final tally, said Rachael Cobb, chair of the political science and legal studies department at Suffolk University and an expert in election administration.

Florida, an important swing state, has already been processing mail ballots, and officials say they will be able to release their results by 8:30 p.m. eastern time on election night. In states where the margin of victory between Biden and Trump is likely to be small, it will be important to count every single ballot, but that could take some time.

“If that’s the case, we will have a lot of information about Florida early, but if it’s super close, we won’t have a lot of information,” Cobb said. “If it is a clear 10 point lead of one of the candidates, we’ll know a lot more.”

Pennsylvania, by contrast, doesn’t process its mail ballots early, and will only start to do so on election night. As a result, the swing state may not have clear results until Friday, Cobb said.

“There’s going to be a real delay on Pennsylvania,” she said.

In Arizona, where Trump and Biden are polling neck and neck, results aren’t likely to come in until Wednesday, she added.

Trump and some Republicans have consistently tried to push a message that votes that arrive after Nov. 3 are not valid and should not be counted. But Cobb said such a message is untrue.

“No state ever has 100% of its ballots counted on Election Day,” she said. “We get a lot of information on election night, but there’s overseas ballots that arrive late. We have wiggle room until the deadlines start kicking in.”

This story was originally published November 3, 2020 at 5:00 AM.