Without Trump in the White House, what’s next for California Republicans?

California Republican Party Chairwoman Jessica Millan Patterson will be the first to tell you that, before last year, state Republicans were losing steam.

The number of registered Republicans in California had been dwindling for a decade. By 2019, more people were registered under “no party preference” than the Republican Party. Steve Schmidt, a California political consultant who ran the late Sen. John McCain’s presidential campaign, described the party post-election as a “gathering of weirdos, cranks, losers,” and “nut jobs.”

But as of October, California Republicans’ numbers are up, if ever so slightly. The party has about 50,000 more registrants than those who associate with no party. The party has grown registration numbers, donors and volunteers in recent years, Patterson said, and if they continue to support and engage with Republicans at a grassroots level.

Some of that could be attributed to the power of President Donald Trump — “there are many individuals out there who would only turn out to vote because the president was on the ballot,” Patterson said — but she’s also confident in the power of the party’s ability to engage voters on state and local issues.

“Our job, in the long run, is to engage these voters and get them excited about midterm elections,” she said. “Get them excited about local candidates, and get them excited about Republican solutions here in California.”

Trump may be on his way out of the White House, but California Republicans still have reasons for hope. In an election cycle that many had hoped would bring a “blue wave,” California Republican candidates have held onto existing congressional seats and could gain a few, depending on the results of some close races.

Democrats still maintain a supermajority in the state Legislature and were able to flip two state Senate seats in their favor. They also hold all statewide offices, from governor to state controller.

Patterson nevertheless remains optimistic about the future of the state Republican Party.

“I think that we have huge opportunities for growth,” Patterson said. “I have said this from the beginning: 2020 was about setting the table, and 2022 is about bringing balance back to California.”

Republicans are seeing success this year, in part, because they choose good candidates, said Jim Brulte, former California Senate GOP leader and party chairman prior to Patterson.

Candidates like Young Kim in the 39th Congressional District and Michelle Steel in the 48th, reflect the Korean-American communities they represent, he said, Rosilicie Bogh is a good match for the large Latino population in California Senate District 23.

“Republicans have learned the lesson that you have to recruit good candidates,” he said. “Not that we haven’t had good candidates in the past, but at the end of the day we had really good candidates this year.”

Party operations are “very sound” Brulte added, but other factors influence the result of an election.

The political environment was better this year than in the 2018 midterms, he said, because there was a presidential race on the ballot, and voters were more engaged. Just over 24% of California registered voters are Republican, according to the latest numbers from the Secretary of State’s Office, but more than 33% of voters in the state cast ballots for Trump.

“It suggests that (Trump’s) brand is a little better than the Republican brand in California,” Brulte said.

Trump “expanded the party,” agreed California Rep. Kevin McCarthy, minority leader in the U.S. House of Representatives. Both McCarthy and Patterson say they’re waiting for all the votes and recounts to finish before accepting a Biden victory, but if Trump is forced to leave office, his influence will remain.

“I think the party’s only going to continue to grow,” McCarthy said of California Republicans. “I think, the president, if at the end of the day, doesn’t come out to win the presidency, I just don’t think he’s going away.”

Even if Trump helps turn out voters, Californian Republicans in the past have been hesitant to align with the president’s abrasive rhetoric. For her part, Patterson said she isn’t interested in talking about whatever 3 a.m. tweet the president put out, and instead focuses on state issues.

“California Democrats really gave us a lot to work with,” she said. “We just needed to do a better job of delivering that message.”

The coronavirus pandemic was an important messaging point for Republicans this year. The party has criticized Gov. Gavin Newsom’s system of opening some businesses while allowing other to open during the pandemic.

Lawsuits against Newsom’s executive orders brought by Republican Assemblymen Kevin Kiley and James Gallgher received widespread support among conservatives, especially in the northern regions.

“We have seen, certainly, an uprising and active participation from Republicans and others, who want to be a part of a movement,” Patterson said. “Where they say, ‘I was not political before I did this... it’s just made me so frustrated that I realize my vote matters.’”

California Republicans still have a loyalty to Trump, but no matter who is in the White House on Jan. 20, their concerns about the coronavirus and economic shutdown will remain, Patterson said. Having Joe Biden as president won’t change the party’s focus on state issues.

“I don’t think that it changes the way Californians feel,” she said. “We win when we’re talking about the local things. We win when we’re not just talking about the failed policies of California Democrats, of which the list is incredibly long, but we win when we’re talking about what Republican solutions are to those things.”

The party has been criticized in recent years for what some see as a shift away from the center. The California GOP this year endorsed several candidates who expressed interest in the conspiracy theories of the QAnon movement.

Brulte acknowledged that the party has lost people in the political center.

“Most minority parties in states become much more reactive to their base,” he said. “That’s not just Republicans in California. It’s also Democrats in other states around the country.”

Patterson said she can appreciate the criticism, and as someone who describes herself as “big-tent Republican,” she’s looking for ways to grow the base.

“While my views might be more conservative than the average, I believe that there’s so much that we agree on. Let’s focus on the things that we agree on and get people elected.,” she said. “I think that is critical if we want to win here in California.”

Historically, midterms are not friendly to the party that holds the White House, Brulte said, and President-elect Joe Biden is already likely to enter the office with Republicans still controlling the U.S. Senate. It could mean more Republican success in one of the country’s most solidly-blue states.

“California is a center-left state, but it’s not a radical left. And that matters,” Brulte said. “Democrats are going to have to defend everything.”