California Republicans argued Democrats would raise taxes. Did Prop. 15 prove their point?

Asked about California’s property tax law during a local radio interview in December 2019, Democratic legislative candidate Dawn Addis stopped short of endorsing a total repeal of Proposition 13.

Instead, she said she was open to an idea commonly known as “split roll,” or treating property taxes for commercial businesses differently than those for homeowners.

“I can see that with, on the commercial side repealing, on the business side,” Addis said. “But for property owners, I think that’s key in a context where housing is extremely difficult already. We wouldn’t want to repeal that for personal residential.”

The interview occurred months before a ballot measure to modify California’s tax law by implementing a form of split roll, dubbed Proposition 15, qualified for the Nov. 3 ballot.

But her position came back to haunt her in the November 2020 election.

Proposition 15, which failed Tuesday as votes came in, would have raised taxes on California businesses with more than $3 million in commercial or industrial property. It exempted smaller businesses and residential property. The measure would have raised up to $12.5 billion, which proponents said would put more money into schools and California communities.

Republicans usually run anti-tax campaigns in California, a state notorious for its high cost of living. But Proposition 15 handed vulnerable Republicans extra political ammunition in tight purple-district races.

“Protecting Proposition 13 isn’t a red or blue issue. It’s an issue that’s color blind,” said California Business Properties Association President Rex Hime during a press conference celebrating Proposition 15’s failure. “I think the core belief in Proposition 13, what it protects and what it’s about, is systematically ingrained in California.”

Addis never endorsed Proposition 15, but soundbites from her interview were more than enough for Assemblyman Jordan Cunningham’s campaign to work with.

The incumbent Republican representing Assembly District 35, a Central Coast seat, leveraged the radio spot to claim that Democrats like Addis would raise property taxes for Californians, with Proposition 15 on the ballot as his proof.

In one radio jingle, Cunningham’s team claimed Addis supported the “largest tax hike in California history.”

“It started down on Main Street, she’s coming for your door. Next thing it will be stress on a family, the tax hike will be on your home,” the song said. “Higher and higher and higher they go. Mom and Pop won’t stand a chance. Higher and higher and higher they go. She’ll take the money right out of the pants.”

The argument resonated. In both counties Cunningham represents — San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara — Proposition 15 tanked.

“It was our best issue. We used it right from the start,” said Cunningham’s campaign consultant Matt Rexroad. “The entire Cunningham campaign against Addis was around Proposition 15.”

In Santa Barbara County, 46.4% of voters are Democrats, 25.3% are Republican and 22.2% are independent. In San Luis Obispo County, those numbers are 37.4%, 34.9% and 20.8%, respectively.

Cunningham, however, was determined the winner by the Associated Press with 55.1% of the vote.

The strategy repeated itself throughout Southern California, where the No on Proposition 15 campaign was simultaneously urging voters to reject the initiative.

“The key was going to be that we had to drive our margin up in Southern California,” said Rob Lapsley, president of the California Business Roundtable. “With our messages, we were able to bring across many Democrats.”

In Senate District 21, which runs across Northern Los Angeles and the Antelope Valley, incumbent Republican Sen. Scott Wilk targeted Kipp Mueller on taxes, claiming the Democrat didn’t think residents were “paying their fair share in taxes and wants to end Prop 13.”

The district includes San Bernardino and Los Angeles Counties, both of which have a majority Democratic voter base. Proposition 15 passed in Los Angeles with 53.4% of the vote, but San Bernardino voters overwhelmingly disapproved of the initiative. On Wednesday, Wilk maintained a narrow 1.2% lead over Mueller.

Rosilicie Ochoa Bogh, a Republican running in Senate District 23 to keep the Inland Empire seat red, nailed Democrat Abigail Medina for allegedly wanting to raise taxes. Medina, a San Bernardino City Unified School District Board, endorsed Proposition 15, according to the initiative’s campaign website.

Riverside County, which SD 23 covers along with San Bernardino and Los Angeles Counties, also rejected the measure. Again, Ochoa Bogh, a GOP candidate up against a trending blue constituency, was ahead with 51.9% of the vote.

Republican incumbent for Assembly District 55, Phillip Chen promised he’d “protect Prop 13, keep taxes down and work to make CA more affordable.” Chen painted his challenger, Andrew Rodriguez, as a candidate with a “proven track record of supporting higher taxes.”

Chen trounced Rodriguez by 10% to keep his job representing parts of Los Angeles, Orange and San Bernardino Counties.

The pattern seems likely to repeat again for Assemblyman Steven Choi in Anaheim, who demonstrates “strong and constant support for Proposition 13,” according to Jon Coupal, president of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association.

Choi, who is running against Democrat Melissa Fox to defend his seat, was up with 53.1% of the vote by Wednesday.

In the same county, former state Sen. Janet Nguyen beat Democrat Diedre Nguyen by 8% after running on a pro-Proposition 13 platform.

“Janet will work to protect Prop 13” and “stop tax increases,” her campaign promised.

Proposition 15 could very well have helped these defensive Republicans secure No Party Preference or swing voters. But Southern California Democratic campaign consultant Derek Humphrey said it’s more likely Republicans “exaggerated what Proposition 15 did” to “scare” some voters into the red column, and that “Democrats still had a really good night in California.”

“Taxes are something that Democrats and Republicans have always squabbled over,” Humphrey said.

Democrats were poised to snag two Southern California seats from Republicans who assured voters they’d defend the districts from assaults against Proposition 13.

University of California, Irvine law professor Dave Min declared victory Nov. 7 over Sen. John Moorlach, a longtime GOP star who attempted to convince voters that California lawmakers “shouldn’t be raising taxes on small businesses.” The Associated Press has not yet called the race, but Min was leading with 51.2% of the ballots tallied so far.

Former Sen. Josh Newman hoped this year to win his seat back from Republican Sen. Ling Ling Chang of Diamond Bar.

Chang, who represent parts of Los Angeles, San Bernardino and Orange Counties in the Capitol, railed Newman for voting in favor of a 2018 gas tax that sparked his recall election. Chang said she was Senate District 29’s best chance to defeat more tax increases in California.

Newman, with 51.3% of the vote, appeared likely to survive those claims.

Proposition 15 also didn’t seem to hurt Democratic Assemblywomen Sabrina Cervantes in Riverside or Tasha Boerner Horvath in Oceanside. Cottie Petrie-Norris in Irvine is also hanging on to her seat so far, with 50.5% of the vote.

Bill Wong, political director for the California Assembly Democrats, said any of his caucus’ disappointments were largely attributable to these districts being former GOP strongholds, not Proposition 15.

Instead, Wong ascribes Republican victories to a strong, yet unexpected, GOP turnout, and a voter base increasingly harder to reach through traditional media. He added that these regions were already “highly sensitive to tax increases.”

“’Democrats will raise your taxes.’ They’ll use that anyways,” Wong said. “And we would’ve been vulnerable regardless of whether Proposition 15 was on the ballot or not.”