California is struggling to reopen schools. Could it spell trouble for Newsom in a recall?

The final day of the California Republican Party convention last weekend opened with an advertisement.

Images of Gov. Gavin Newsom flashed on the screen, criticizing him for sending his children to private schools while public schools remain closed.

“Gavin Newsom, taking care of himself while our kids suffer,” the ad read, as somber piano music played in the background. “It’s time for Gavin to go.”

Newsom for weeks has pushed lawmakers to draft a deal on reopening schools quickly, without much success. A plan introduced in the Legislature last week would open certain grades by April, depending on case rates, but Newsom said the timetable was too slow.

Failing to broker a deal that puts kids back in classrooms could further incite his detractors, who are already using the issue to push a recall movement.

With less than four weeks left for recall organizers to collect signatures, the Democratic governor is under immense pressure to deliver a solution for California educators, parents and students.

“Reopening schools is at the top of the agenda for every parent in California, regardless of political party,” said Democratic strategist Steven Maviglio.

“It cuts through all political, economic and philosophical issues,” he added. “People just don’t get why this isn’t fixable when they look around, and private schools in their backyard and schools across the world have been functioning fine for six months.”

Legislature acts

In late December, Newsom proposed spending $2 billion to get schools reopened by February.

But districts and labor organizations balked at the quick turnaround, and negotiations stalled over discussions about vaccines for teachers. Organizations like the powerful California Teachers Association say the shots should be available for any employee returning to campus, but Newsom has insisted that the state doesn’t have the supply to inoculate all teachers before summer.

On Thursday, Democrats in the State Senate and Assembly introduced a plan that would allow vulnerable students across all grades to return to classes by April, while requiring county public health officers to offer vaccines to teachers who are returning. In counties where the spread of the coronavirus puts them in the state’s red tier or better, the state would required to offer in-person instruction for all students grades k-6 by April 15.

Lawmakers had hinted that they could pass the plan as soon as this week, but on Monday, members of the Assembly Budget Committee debated the bill for more than two hours without taking a vote. School district leaders want more local control over reopening dollars, but some lawmakers, like Assembly Budget Chair Phil Ting, D-San Francisco, are insistent upon keeping accountability in the bill.

“They want us to give them money, with no accountability, no guarantees of in-person learning this year,” Ting said of school leaders. “I am normally a huge proponent of local control, but this year, local control has been a complete failure.”

It could still pass the Legislature, but whether it will get a signature from the governor is another question.

It wasn’t clear whether lawmakers consulted the Newsom administration on the plan before drafting it, and on Thursday the governor said the bill “represents a step in the right direction,” but it doesn’t go far enough or fast enough.

The governor has made moves in the meantime, giving the OK for youth sports to resume and requiring the state to set aside 10% of its vaccine supply for teachers.

The governor of California needs to take decisive action and show leadership, especially during times of crisis, Maviglio said, and a public perception that Newsom isn’t taking the reins could be harmful.

“This is not something you can just take a magic wand and fix as much as everybody like that to happen,” he said. “So it is complicated. And I think is hurting the governor.”

Republicans seize on schools issue

California Republicans have wasted no time in telling voters that Newsom is responsible for the frustration and burnout plaguing students and parents a year into distance learning.

“Gov. Newsom released another empty statement that there is ‘growing momentum to get our schools open,’” tweeted Assemblyman Kevin Kiley, R-Rocklin, on Friday. “There is actually a clear consensus that this should have happened nine months ago.””

“Many schools that planned to reopen & received waivers to do so, were then told they could not open after the administration changed the rules in late January,” said Assemblywoman Suzette Valladares, R-Santa Clarita. “Reopening in-person learning has been long overdue.”

Newsom’s gubernatorial opponent, former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, took to the streets of San Francisco last week to knock the “elitist governor” for sitting idly by while he creates an education equality gap that will “haunt students for their entire lives.”

Ron Nehring, a former chair of the California Republican Party, said the continued stalemate over schools has contributed to the perception that the COVID-19 pandemic has exceeded Newsom’s ability to govern. The frustrations from parents, teachers and students could “absolutely” help the recall effort, Nehring said.

“Emotion drives behavior. And people have gotten emotional about this,” Nehring said “They feel that their quality of life is threatened... and that government is not treating them fairly.”

Matt Rexroad, a California Republican political consultant, said Newsom doesn’t have to worry about angering staunch Republicans, who were already likely to vote against him in a recall. But although local districts, lawmakers and labor unions have a large role to play in the discussion, Democrats with school-aged children could still hold the governor responsible.

“Is it appropriate to blame the governor? Probably not directly,” Rexroad said. “But is he getting blamed for it? Absolutely.”

More than 370,000 people signed the petition to recall Newsom between Jan. 7 and Feb. 5, according to the most recent report. Although state elections officials have validated just 670,000 recall signatures, campaign organizers say they have collected more than 1.7 million. The effort needs to turn in 1.5 million valid signatures by March 17 to qualify the recall for the ballot.

Democratic consultant Garry South, who worked for former Gov. Gray Davis when he was recalled, said school closures have been a drain on California parents, but dismissed the idea that Newsom could be propelled out of office for it.

“The closure of the schools is not something that universally affects all California. It just doesn’t,” South said. “It’s a problem. There’s no doubt about it, and it’s something he’s got to get fixed in a sensible and reasonable and scientifically-sound way.”

“But despite all of the clamor about it, it’s just not something that’s affecting a huge percentage of Californians,” he said.

This story was originally published February 23, 2021 at 5:00 AM.