Gavin Newsom would benefit from an earlier recall election, Democrats say. Can it be done?

Things are looking up for Gov. Gavin Newsom.

After a brutal year of skyrocketing COVID-19 cases, worries about the economy, and a political revolt, the Democratic governor is now enjoying a huge budget surplus, one of the lowest case rates in the nation, and a steady approval rating.

That’s why, some Democrats say, the recall election needs to be held sooner rather than later.

State Sen. Steve Glazer, D-Orinda, floated the idea on Twitter last week, saying the best way to beat this “reckless recall” is to have an early election.

“He has rebounded well with vaccines and budget,” Glazer wrote. “His biggest threats are the unknowns: virus variant, fires, school reopening. No reason to delay and give opposition any more running room.”

Although the recall is likely to qualify for the ballot, an election has not yet been scheduled. The Secretary of State confirmed last month that the petition gathered more than the requisite 1.5 million signatures, but several things need to happen before California voters mark a date in their calendars.

It’s well within the rights of state officials to move the recall up, Glazer said, and doing so would box out the recall proponents.

“They love the maneuverability for anything to happen,” Glazer said of recall supporters. “They want to create chaos, and every day that elongates the election gives them more opportunity for chaos.”

Political watchers like those at the California Target Book have estimated that such an election would be held in November. But if state officials moved quickly through the recall verification process, it could be sooner.

“Why would you let the opposition have another 30 days to attack you?” said Democratic consultant Andrew Acosta. “Or, heaven forbid, something else bad happens and the governor gets blamed for it?”

Newsom on Monday brushed aside questions about Glazer’s comment and didn’t say when he would like to see the recall happen.

“That’s going to be determined by a series of actions the Legislature takes, the Department of Finance takes, the Secretary of State takes,” the governor said. “They’ll make that determination. Period. Full stop.”

But even if Newsom isn’t directly influencing state officials to quickly set a date, that doesn’t mean the recall verification process has to use the full time allotted by the state Constitution.

Recall process

Right now, the recall is in a signature withdrawal period, where anyone who signed the petition has 30 business days to remove their name. Once that period ends on June 8, the secretary of state must determine if the recall still has the requisite number of signatures. If so, the secretary of state must promptly notify the Department of Finance, which is under the Office of the Governor.

The Department of Finance has 30 days to consult with county elections officials and the Secretary of State’s Office to estimate the costs of the recall. H.D. Palmer, a spokesman for the finance department, said the agency doesn’t have a political agenda, and the estimate will take “as much time as necessary.” It could take 30 days, or it could take less, depending on the department’s pace.

After the finance analysis, the Joint Legislative Budget Committee has 30 days to review the department’s report and comment on the estimate. When the comment period is up, the Secretary of State will certify that proponents have submitted enough valid signatures to qualify the recall for the ballot.

It is unclear if the Joint Legislative Budget Committee can move more quickly than the allotted 30 days. California state law prescribes that the Secretary of State “shall not certify the sufficiency of the signatures.... until the Joint Legislative Budget Committee has had 30 days to review and comment on the estimate submitted by the Department of Finance.”

After the joint committee’s comment period, the Secretary of State will then certify the recall signatures. The lieutenant governor is then required to call a recall election to be held not less than 60 days nor more than 80 days from the date of certification.

Pros and cons

Legally, Democrats could probably move things along, said Joshua Spivak, a senior fellow at the Hugh L. Carey Institute for Government Reform at Wagner College and an expert on recall elections. But politically, it may not be a good idea, he said, and recall proponents could delay such an effort with lawsuits.

Spivak said moving the election up could also pose problems for Newsom around turnout and fundraising.

“The pro-recall crowd likely does not need to be pushed to vote. They are already angry and ready to cast their ballot,” Spivak said. “Newsom’s voters are the ones who need to be ‘brought’ to the ‘polls so to speak. More time makes a turnout effort more likely to bear fruit.”

A vote in August may be ill-timed, as many voters may be away on vacation. Additionally, any issues around school reopening are likely to crop up at that time, which could anger voters. By the fall, reopening kinks could have been worked out.

Most importantly, Spivak said, an early recall election could mean a premature stop to a big fundraising run.

“At the moment, it appears that the money is flowing to Newsom and not to the recall proponents,” Spivak said. “There is a great likelihood that this trend will accelerate. The more time he has to work with, the more Newsom can leverage this monetary advantage to his benefit. A short campaign limits the advantage.”

Still, others say moving the recall election to August or September is the right move. Dragging out the recall process allows more time for mistakes, Acosta said.

“(Newsom) could go to the French Laundry for dessert,” he said. “Someone in his administration could do something silly. They’re surrounded by people. People make mistakes every day. So who knows?”

This story was originally published May 25, 2021 at 5:00 AM.