Good news for Newsom in new polls + Bonta the front runner in AD 18 + Dynasty, Capitol-style

Good morning and welcome to the A.M. Alert!

NEWSOM AHEAD BY 19 POINTS IN LATEST RECALL POLL

Via Lara Korte...

Yes, you read that right.

Gov. Gavin Newsom, who for the last month has been sounding alarm bells about a tight recall race, is winning the recall by 19 points in the latest poll from PPIC, which dropped last night.

PPIC shows 39% of likely voters say they would vote “yes” on the recall, compared to 58% who would vote “no.”

Voters were almost evenly split on the recall as recently as July, according to a poll from UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies. PPIC researchers also indicated in July that there was a significant enthusiasm gap between recall supporters, who were much more engaged, and Newsom supporters, who were not as engaged.

Newsom, in campaign emails last month, warned supporters that “this recall is close,” and “if we do not have the resources we need to turn out our voters, we could lose this recall.”

Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., said he suspects vigorous messaging on the part of Democrats has awakened Newsom’s voters, along with the perceived threat from front runner Larry Elder, the radio talk show host whom Newsom has attacked as a far-right Trump supporter. Democrats are dominating ballot returns, too. PDI’s ballot tracker shows more than 54% of all returns are coming from Democrats.

“Six or eight weeks ago it was really close, because Democrats were just not activated at all. They’d been fed a message that ‘this thing’s a joke, it’s not even going to get on the ballot.... people weren’t taking it seriously,” Mitchell said. “Democrats have now been awoken, they’re like ‘oh s--- it’s real, I guess I do have to vote.’”

AD 18 RESULTS SO FAR

It looks like Mia Bonta is in the lead in the race for Assembly District 18.

Bonta, a Democrat, has just shy of 55% of the vote, compared to her opponent, Janani Ramachandran, also a Democrat, who has 45% of the vote.

To recap, Bonta is running to replace her husband, Rob Bonta, who Newsom named California Attorney General earlier this year. Mia Bonta is the president of the Alameda Unified School District School Board and the CEO of the nonprofit Oakland Promise.

Ramachandran, a self-described social justice attorney, ran an underdog campaign against Bonta, raising a third of what Bonta did and spending less than a quarter.

“As the daughter of activists and as a Black Latina, Mia will bring a progressive, under-represented perspective to Sacramento to help our families recover from COVID, address the root causes of homelessness, and ensure we have the resources to get all students and teachers back to in-person school safely this fall,” Bonta said on her website.

THE LEGISLATURE: A FAMILY BUSINESS

Speaking of family, Mia Bonta’s likely addition to the Assembly marks another notch in the long tradition of couples and relatives serving in the Legislature.

A special tip of the hat to the Capitol Bureau’s Hannah Wiley and CalMatters reporter Laurel Rosenhall (a Bee alum) for their work compiling a list of legislative relations.

There’s Assemblywoman Akilah Weber, who replaced her mother, Shirley Weber, when the latter was appointed Secretary of State.

There’s the Calderon family: Assemblywoman Lisa Calderon, former Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon, former Sen. Charles Calderon, former Sen. Ron Calderon and former Assemblyman Tom Calderon.

There’s the husband/wife duo of Sen. Brian Dahle and Assemblywoman Megan Dahle.

There’s Assemblywoman Autumn Burke, daughter of Yvonne Burke, who also served in the Assembly before moving on to the U.S. House of Representatives.

There’s Assemblyman Joaquin Arambula, son of former Assemblyman Juan Arambula; Assemblyman Kevin Mullin, son of former Assemblyman Gene Mullin; and Chris Holden, son of former Sen. Nate Holden.

And soon, there could be another Hertzberg in the Senate, as Daniel Hertzberg is running to replace his father, Sen. Bob Hertzberg in Senate District 18.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“#SCOTUS’ silence is deafening. CA is a safe haven for women in Texas & across the U.S. who are viciously denied their right to health care.

What’s unnerving is that our ability to remain a beacon of hope for reproductive rights is in jeopardy if we don’t vote no on the recall.”

- Senate President pro tem Toni Atkins, D-San Diego, discussing Texas’ near-total abortion ban via Twitter.

Best of the Bee:

• Two weeks ahead of the recall election deadline, leading Republican candidate Larry Elder is ramping up efforts to attract working-class Latino voters with Spanish-language ads and endorsements from two notable Latino figures, via Kim Bojórquez.

• California Democrats have long counted on Latino voters. Will they stick with Gavin Newsom now? Via Kim Bojórquez.

• SEIU Local 1000 board members move to strip union president of power, pick new leader, via Wes Venteicher.