California voters oppose another Biden presidential run. But Newsom a top contender, poll says

California voters don’t want President Joe Biden to run for a second term, and the state’s Democrats have Gov. Gavin Newsom leading a list of alternatives for the 2024 presidential nomination, according to a new poll.

A Berkeley Institute of Governmental Services-Los Angeles Times online poll found 31% of California voters favored Biden seeking another four years as president, while 61% oppose his candidacy and 8% have no opinion. Democrats are more evenly split, with 46% in favor of Biden running again, 46% opposed and 8% with no opinion.

The poll, conducted earlier this month, asked 9,254 registered California voters about their preferences. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 2%.

Republicans are strongly against a second Biden presidential run, with only 9% favoring his candidacy, 87% opposing and 4% with no opinion.

Most voters also don’t want to see former President Donald Trump run again, with 25% in favor 71% in opposition and 4% with no opinion. Nearly all Democrats surveyed were against Trump as a presidential candidate, with 91% in opposition and just 7% in favor.

Republicans want to see another Trump presidential run, with 66% in favor, 29% in opposition and 5% who have no opinion.

Thirty-eight percent of GOP voters favor Trump as a Republican presidential candidate, while 27% want to see Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as the party’s pick. Former Vice President Mike Pence has support from 7% of voters.

Without Trump as a candidate, 53% of Republican voters back DeSantis and 9% support Pence.

No presidential consensus, but Californians like Newsom

Although there’s no consensus pick to replace Biden, Newsom tops a field of potential Democratic candidates that includes Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, Vice President Kamala Harris and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.

Newsom has used his gubernatorial re-election campaign to run print and television ads contrasting California policies on abortion rights and gun control with those in Republican-controlled states like Florida and Texas.

Moves like these, as well as a recent high-profile trip to Washington, D.C., have led many to speculate Newsom is raising his national profile ahead of a potential presidential run.

Even so, the governor has repeatedly said he has “sub-zero interest” in pursuing the presidency.

The poll gave California voters a list of 16 political leaders and asked who they would like to see as a presidential candidate if Biden does not seek another term.

Newsom and Sanders are the top choice of 13% of voters. Harris was the first for 10%, while Buttigieg and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez tied for fourth place with 7%.

“While many California Democrats are not convinced that Biden should run again, the absence of a clear Democratic alternative may afford the president more space in avoiding a serious primary challenge should he decide to seek re-election,” said Eric Schickler, Berkeley IGS co-director, in a statement.

When asked for their first or second choice, voters placed Newsom ahead of the others.

Twenty-five percent of voters said the governor would be their first or second choice for presidential candidate. Sanders and Harris trailed with 18% selecting them as first or second choice.

Buttigieg would be the first or second choice pick for 13% of voters, while 7% of voters said the same of Ocasio-Cortez.

Without Newsom as a candidate, Sanders is the top pick of 15% of California Democrats. Harris trails with 12%, Buttigieg is in third with 8% and Ocasio-Cortez and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren tied for fourth with 7%.

“The poll finds that Newsom’s potential support as a presidential candidate is broadly distributed, receiving 20%-30% of the first or second choice preferences of voters across most of the major subgroups of the Democratic primary electorate,” said Mark DiCamillo, Berkeley IGS Poll director, in the poll results.

“On the other hand, support for Sanders and Harris is more fragmented,” DiCamillo said. “For example, while Sanders receives strong support from liberals and younger voters, he polls poorly among older voters and political moderates. Similarly, while Harris does well among Latino and Black Democratic primary voters, she receives less support from whites and independent voters.”

This story was originally published August 19, 2022 at 2:25 PM.