Latinos are increasingly leaning more Republican. But not so much in California
Swing state Republicans are making a bet this fall that they can draw more Latino voters to the GOP, helping to flip critical House and Senate seats that could give them control of Congress.
They’re pouring money into battlegrounds in Colorado, Florida, Nevada and Texas, aiming to take advantage of a rightward trend among working-class Latino voters that became apparent during the Trump administration.
But one big state is proving to be an exception to the trend: California.
Polls and recent election results show California Latinos by and large remain rooted in the Democratic Party, reflecting the legacy of the anti-immigrant rhetoric California Republicans employed in the 1990s and the rise of left-leaning Hispanic leaders who have focused on delivering for their communities.
In 2020, precincts with higher concentrations of Latino voters were more likely to support President Joe Biden. And despite expressing initial reservations about Gov. Gavin Newsom, Latinos voters overwhelmingly voted against the recall at 78%. The high Latino support was unchanged from 2018.
“Democrats fight for Latinos, whether they’re fifth-generation or just came across the border,” said Sen. Maria Elena Durazo, D-Los Angeles. “We will fight because that’s who we are and that’s who we care about.”
Latinos appear to moving away from the Democratic Party in other states. The National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials’, better known as NALEO, most recent poll found Latino voters favor Democrats over Republicans in congressional races by a margin of 54% to 30%. The 24-point lead is down from 2018 when it was 47 points. A NBC/Telemundo poll showed a similar decrease.
Those numbers fueled recent Republican ad buys in Texas, Nevada and other states that take aim at Democrats over inflation and expensive housing, while painting the GOP as the party of the American Dream.
Mike Madrid, a Republican Latino voting trends expert, called California the “exception” to a pattern unfolding across the country of Hispanic working class voters moving rightward.
“There was a strategic error on the side of Democrats assuming that Latinos would all vote the same way forever. They’re not. They are in California. But you have to study why California is unique.”
Though outnumbered, conservative Latinos have been elected to prominent offices recently in California, most notably Sen. Rosicile Ochoa Bogh and U.S. Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Santa Clarita. They are trying to make up ground after years of Republicans driving the Latino electorate into the arms of Democrats.
Aftermath of Prop. 187
Before 1994, the Latino vote in California only slightly leaned to the Democrats. Republican Gov. Pete Wilson won 44% of the Hispanic vote in 1990. Then came Proposition 187 in 1994, which sought to ban immigrants from receiving social services, health care and education.
Wilson supported the initiative and voters approved it. Legal challenges prevented the law from taking effect, but more racially charged measures followed including Proposition 209, prohibiting affirmative action, and Proposition 227, an effort to end bilingual education. The measures coincided with the Latino population exploding in the state.
They led to backlash at the time, but also set a decades-long “anti-Republican narrative” for Latinos, said Mindy Romero, director of USC’s Center for Inclusive Democracy.
Romero added that the Latino community gained a “whole generation of advocates” through Prop. 187, many of whom contribute to organizations responsible for mobilizing voters.
Prop. “187 sent this shift in the Latino electorate that has not only influenced the Latino turnout story here in California, but has really influenced California politics,” Romero said.
Madrid said the mid-1990s bills “decimated the Republican Party” for years. He said most of the progress made in the last 30 years was wiped out during the Trump era with his party’s continual anti-Latino rhetoric. Romero concurred, calling Trump a “booster shot” to younger generations.
“Republicans have made it very easy to be painted as anti-Latino and racist…And now it’s as close to anything being irreversible as possible in California” Madrid said.
California’s middle class
Madrid believes there’s more to why California is an anomaly to the Latino rightward shift.
He argues that California’s declining middle class is the main reason that the state primarily votes blue. For years, lower- and middle-income families have left California for other states, while wealthier people have been moving to California.
“Poor people vote for Democrats,” Madrid said. “Rich people vote for Democrats. Middle class people tend to vote more Republican. And that’s what’s happening with Latinos in other parts of the country, where there is more economic mobility…California is one of the worst states economically to be in as a Latino.”
Madrid pointed to a lack of middle-income Latino economic agenda in the state, with progressive lawmakers too focused on issues that won’t help solve the “crushing economic concerns.”
“We focus on farmworker bills,” Madrid said. “Those are important, but they’re symbolic, less than 1% of Latinos are farmworkers. We need to focus on the 99% of Latinos that are not.”
There are an estimated 400,000 to 800,000 farmworkers in California. About 97% are Latino, according to the Public Policy Institute of California.
Durazo chair of the Latino Caucus, attributed the Democratic supermajority in the Legislature to pro-Latino legislation. She said California Democrats are at the forefront of the nation in “legislative and budget successes” that target Latinos.
In the last decade, spearheaded by the caucus, progressives have successfully campaigned to build a social safety net for the state’s roughly 2.3 million undocumented immigrants. Most recently, the state expanded Medi-Cal to all remaining uncovered adults.
Durazo also cited legislation this year including a law that creates a labor council to set pay and and working standards in the fast-food industry, a law that makes it easier for United Farm Workers to hold elections and a law that eases regulations for street vendors.
“That’s why Democrats continue to grow in strength, because Latinos say, ‘hey, you’re looking out for us, we’re going to look out for you’,” Durazo said.
California’s first GOP Latina senator
Despite California Latinos’ reluctance to vote for Trump in 2020, the state’s Republican party made inroads during his administration with three conservative Hispanic leaders: state Sen. Ochoa Bogh, U.S. Rep. Garcia and Assemblywoman Suzette Martinez Vallardes, R-Santa Clarita.
Ochoa Bogh, the first Republican Latina elected to the California Senate, called it a product of Latinos being “smart people” and realizing the quality of life has gone down under one party. She also cited better messaging by Republicans in recent years, a change from post-Prop 187 rhetoric, which she called “appalling.”
“I have seen a change in being more aware of language…If we continue to do that, I think we’re going to see more Latinos identifying more with the conservative Republican,” she said.
She acknowledged her party faces an uphill battle due to the progressive mindset that has taken a strong hold on California. Ochoa Bogh said Latino constituents will sometimes judge her because of the “R” next to her name. But after speaking to her, they will often change their minds and reconsider “what a Republican stands for.”
Ochoa Bogh, a daughter of two Mexican immigrants, calls her family’s story the “story of the American Dream.” And in her position, she prioritizes strengthening schools, lowering taxes and more affordable house prices — issues on which she said Latino voters are increasingly like-minded.
“It’s 2022 and being the first one (Republican Latina in the Senate) is very unique, but I’m grateful….And hopefully, give hope to many people in California and give them the courage to stand up for what they believe in,” Ochoa Bogh said.
This story was originally published October 13, 2022 at 7:03 AM.
