California voters turn on Prop 30 + Planned Parenthood launches California ad buys

Good morning and welcome to the A.M. Alert!

IS PROP 30 TANKING WITH VOTERS?

It looks like Gov. Gavin Newsom’s opposition has helped turn voters against Proposition 30. With less than two weeks to go before Election Day, a majority of likely voters now oppose it, according to the latest survey results from the Public Policy Institute of California.

“Proposition 30 has lost favor in the past month and support is now below a majority,” said Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and CEO, in a statement. “A majority of Democrats still support this initiative, but most other voter groups are now in the ‘no’ camp.”

After hearing the ballot measure’s title and label, just 41% of likely voters said that they would support Prop 30, which would create a tax on the rich to pay for electric vehicle infrastructure and wildfire response. Meanwhile, 52% said that they would vote no , with just 7% undecided, according to the survey.

The PPIC poll also shows that both Proposition 26 and Proposition 27 are on track to fail. . Only a third of likely voters (34%) said they would vote yes on Prop 26 (which would enable sports betting at tribal casinos), while only a quarter (26%) said that they are a yes vote for Prop 27 (which would legalize online sports betting).

Despite the hundreds of millions of dollars spent on those two races, California voters just aren’t that interested in sports betting. Only 9% of likely voters said that they are personally interested in gambling on sporting events, while nearly half (48%) said that legalizing sports betting in California would be a bad thing.

Though Democrats’ national prospects are looking ominous, the California Democratic Party can take some solace from the Dem’s overall edge in the state’s U.S. House districts. More than half (56%) of likely voters say that if the election were held today, they would vote or lean toward the Democratic candidate, according to the PPIC.

In the 10 most competitive such districts, as rated by Cook Political Report, 54% said they support the Democratic candidate, while 32% said they favor the Republican and 14% were undecided.

“Most California likely voters support the Democrat running in their local House race, and a majority favor the Democratic candidate across the competitive districts that will help determine which party controls the House,” Baldassare said.

That might be in part because abortion is such an important topic to California voters.

Six in 10 likely voters (61%) said it is very important; that includes 78% of Democrats, 55% if independents and 43% of Republicans.

PLANNED PARENTHOOD AD BUY ANNOUNCED

With the clock ticking down , Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California and the California Planned Parenthood Education Fund are releasing ads in both English and Spanish urging people to vote.

The ad buy comes as the groups seek to continue drawing attention to the U.S. Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, which overturned Roe v. Wade and left the legality of abortion up to the states.

“Abortion is on the ballot. And not just access to abortion services, but the fundamental right to abortion,” Jodi Hicks, President and CEO of Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California, said in a statement.

The PPAC ad will urge people to vote for Proposition 1, the ballot measure to enshrine the right to contraception and abortion in the California Constitution. It will also tout “sexual and reproductive champions” : Gov. Newsom, Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, Secretary of State Shirley Weber, Attorney General Rob Bonta, Treasurer Fiona Ma, Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara, Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond and Malia Cohen, who is running for controller.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“A story of urban resiliency. Yes, the tree is actually growing inside and through the street sign pole. There’s a lesson in this somewhere.”

- Assemblywoman Laura Friedman, D-Glendale, sharing a cool photo via Twitter.

Best of The Bee:

• The union representing California state correctional officers spent $2.3 million early this year to buy a 5-acre Elk Grove property with a four-bedroom house, a swimming pool and two large warehouses, according to Sacramento County records, an online listing and union representatives, via Wes Venteicher and Darrell Smith.

• Republican Congressman David Valadao is sitting on a nice pile of campaign cash two weeks ahead of the election in a left-leaning congressional district. So, too, is Democratic Congressman Josh Harder in a district that, during a Republican-friendly year, analysts say could flip, via Gillian Brassil and David Lightman.

• California’s political clout could be on the brink of a seismic shift, via David Lightman.

This story was originally published October 27, 2022 at 4:55 AM.