Capitol Alert

Just who is voting in California anyway? A look at ‘the exclusive electorate’

A voters casts their ballot at the polling place located at Shell Beach Veterans Hall on Nov. 8, 2022.
A voters casts their ballot at the polling place located at Shell Beach Veterans Hall on Nov. 8, 2022. cjones@thetribunenews.com

Good morning and welcome to the A.M. Alert!

A PROFILE OF THE CALIFORNIA VOTER

Election Day has come and gone, but we’ll be counting votes for days and possibly even weeks to come. As results trickle in, it’s worth taking a look at just who is voting in California.

That’s exactly what the Public Policy Institute of California did in an Election Day blog post.

According to PPIC, likely voters in the Golden State lean Democratic, with 47% of likely voters registered as Democrats and 52% of independents leaning Democratic.

“While an impressive number of Californians have registered to vote, likely voters tend to be older, white, affluent, college educated, and homeowners, in a phenomenon dubbed the exclusive electorate — wherein those who turn out to vote do not reflect the size and diversity of the state’s population. Nonvoters, on the other hand, are more likely to be younger, Latino, lower income, less educated, and renters,” according to the PPIC.

More than half (55%) of likely voters are white, despite making up just under 40% of the California population. Latino residents comprise 35% of the population, but just 22% of likely voters. Asian-Americans are 13% of likely voters and 16% of the population. Finally, Black residents make up 6% of the population and 5% of likely voters.

Women and men make up similar shares of likely voters, with 51% being women and 49% being men.

The PPIC notes that while California is a solidly Democratic state, there are pockets of dissenting viewpoints. Republicans make up close to half the registered voters in Amador and Calaveras counties. Butte and Kern counties are split between being roughly one-third Republican and one-third Democrat.

Finally, the PPIC notes that California has changed its politics substantially since becoming more racially and ethnically diverse.

“However, California’s population growth has stagnated within the past 10 years, costing the state one congressional seat. Furthermore, people are leaving California, migrating to other states or moving from one region to another. These and other population shifts determine representation and may begin to alter the political composition of the state,” according to the PPIC.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“No matter what’s your party or ideology, go vote and then let’s all enjoy our last election on @Twitter.”

- California pollster Paul Mitchell, via Twitter.

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