Californians worry about deficit, state’s direction. How it affects Gavin Newsom’s popularity

Most Californians see the state headed in the wrong direction, and voters have mixed feelings about Gov. Gavin Newsom’s leadership, a new poll released Thursday shows.

The Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll conducted earlier this month found 47% of registered California voters disapprove of the governor’s leadership, while 46% approve.

That’s up slightly from late October, when 44% of voters approved of Newsom’s performance and 49% disapproved.

April 2021 was the last time more than half of voters approved of the governor’s leadership. At that time, 52% of surveyed voters favored his performance, while 43% disapproved.

He saw his highest approval ratings in September 2020, during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Sixty-four percent of surveyed voters supported Newsom’s leadership then, while 36% disapproved of his performance.

Newsom has been trying to establish himself as a prominent national Democratic voice, possibly with the hope of being a presidential candidate in the future. But that sort of stature first comes with strong support in his home state.

A Newsom spokesman had not provided a comment about the poll by publication time.

The governor appears to be wounded politically by voter anxiety over the state of the state. The poll found one-third of those surveyed saw California moving in the right direction, while 57% saw it moving in the wrong direction.

Berkeley IGS noted the state approval ratings are still higher than they were when California last experienced financial difficulties in 2008-2011, when 69% to 80% of voters believed conditions were on the wrong track. But they’re down from 11 months ago, when 36% of voters saw the state moving in the right direction. Forty-six percent of voters were positive about the state’s trajectory in May 2021.

Newsom faces a budget crisis, and the poll indicates 50% of voters surveyed believe California’s spending shortfall is a “extremely serious,” while 37% see it as “somewhat serious.”

The organization surveyed nearly 8,200 registered voters from Jan. 4-8, before the governor released his budget on Jan. 10. The poll has a 1.5% margin of error.

Newsom projected the budget gap is closer to $38 billion, far smaller than the $68 billion estimate the Legislative Analyst’s Office released in December. The poll did not indicate the size of the shortfall, asking voters only about a “large budget deficit.”

About 51% of surveyed voters said they want state leaders respond to the budget gap with spending cuts, and 35% would like to see them dip into California’s rainy-day fund. Only 13% are in favor of tax increases.

Newsom last week proposed closing the budget gap with a combination of spending cuts and delays, and also by using some of the state’s reserves. He was stridently opposed to any tax increases, especially a proposed tax on wealthy Californians’ net worth.

This story was originally published January 18, 2024 at 11:56 AM.