Proposition 1 campaign lowers expectations amid anticipated low voter turnout

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PROP. 1 CAMPAIGN MANAGES EXPECTATIONS

Proposition 1 supporters are tamping down expectations ahead of Election Day — polling for the ballot measure gives supporters good cause to be concerned.

Prop. 1 would reform the state’s Mental Health Services Act by rerouting $140 million in county funding to the state to pay for mental health and substance abuse treatment plans. It also would unlock $6.4 billion in bond funding to pay for housing for the homeless and new substance abuse and mental health treatment centers.

The measure has received pushback from a diverse coalition, including Republican lawmakers and taxpayer, disability rights and mental health advocates, the latter of whom have warned of major cuts in services if the measure passes.

Polling for the ballot measure shows support for the measure wavering; the Public Policy Institute of California found that 68% of likely voters supported the proposition in December while in February that number dropped down to 59%. A Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll shows an even bleaker outlook for the measure, with just 50% in support.

So what happened? How did a measure backed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom and virtually the entire Democratic apparatus go from a likely pass to a coin toss?

Polling firm David Binder Research, working on behalf of the Prop. 1 campaign, offered some explanations in a recent memo shared with The Bee.

The PPIC polling drop can be explained by the wording of the question, the firm said, noting that when that poll was taken, in December, pollsters didn’t have the ballot measure language and so had to come up with their best guess as to what it would say. In the Berkeley poll, taken in February, pollsters had the actual proposition language, and so voters were able to give a more accurate picture of where they stood on it, according to the memo.

“But the number may still be too optimistic,” the memo read.

For one thing, Tuesday’s primary election is likely to see record low voter turnout — and partisan differences will likely play a major roll in the outcome. Democrats generally are in favor of the proposition, while Republicans mostly are opposed. But it’s Republicans, perhaps driven by a fervor to support former President Donald Trump in the state Republican primary, who are expected to turn out in big numbers for the election.

“In addition (to) these atmospherics surrounding this March primary election, ballot measures that are viewed as potentially increasing debt or taxes typically bleed support as we get closer to election day,” the memo read.

As such, the firm is predicting that the yes vote for the measure could be in “the low 50s” — hardly a resounding victory for a measure championed by a two-term Democratic governor in a blue state.

CALIFORNIA BILL WOULD CONTINUE EXPANDED DNA TESTING PROGRAM

California’s Department of Justice has used DNA to successfully identify more than 2,000 missing persons, but funding for that program could dry up this year unless the Legislature takes action.

On Monday, California Attorney General Rob Bonta and Assemblywoman Stephanie Nguyen, D-Elk Grove, came together to unveil AB 3042, a bill to eliminate the 20-year sunset date for Proposition 69, the 2004 ballot measure that, among other things, increased criminal penalties by a rate of $1 for every $10 assessed in order to pay for an expanded DNA collection program.

At the press conference, Bonta was cognizant of the grim fiscal reality faced by the state.

“This funding would come from an already established source, criminal fines, which is to be absolutely clear in this difficult budget year, completely separate and apart from the general fund,” he said.

Prop. 69 brings in about $12 million a year for DNA testing, Bonta said.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“I understand people care about the president’s age but what they should care about is his record. Look at what Joe Biden has done for America: He’s created more jobs than any president in history and inflation is down, the Shamrock Shake is back and Beyoncé has gone country. Thank you Joe!”

- Comedian Michael Longfellow, playing Gov. Gavin Newsom in the cold open of the latest episode of Saturday Night Live.

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This story was originally published March 5, 2024 at 4:55 AM.