Here’s a snapshot of where California voters stand on key issues before Election Day

Good morning and welcome to the A.M. Alert!

WHERE DO CALIFORNIANS STAND ON THE ISSUES?

There’s less than two weeks now til Election Day, and the Public Policy Institute of California this week provided us with a snapshot of where voters stand on the issues.

The PPIC surveyed 1,137 likely voters, between Oct. 7 and Oct. 15, with a 3.7% percentage point sampling error.

So let’s go through the list, shall we?

First up, Proposition 2. A slight majority (52%) of California likely voters said that they will vote yes on the bond to authorize $10 billion in bonds for repairs, upgrades and construction projects at K-12 schools around the state. In September, 54% said they would vote yes.

A much stronger majority (60%) said they are a yes for the other bond measure, Proposition 4, which authorizes $10 billion in bond spending on projects for water, wildfire prevention and climate change mitigation. That’s down 5 percentage points from when the question was polled in September.

Things are looking good for Proposition 3, which would remove the 2008 prohibition against same-sex marriage from the California Constitution, with 67% saying they support the measure (down slightly from 68% in September).

Proposition 5, which would lower the voter threshold for approving local bonds for affordable housing and public infrastructure, is looking like more of a battle. Voters are fiercely divided over the measure, with 48% saying they’ll vote yes and 50% saying they’ll vote no. In September, 49% said they were a yes.

Proposition 6, which would prohibit involuntary servitude for incarcerated people (which proponents call modern day slavery), looks to be in trouble, with 56% of likely voters saying they’ll vote no and just 41% saying they’re a yes. In September, 46% said they would vote yes and 50% said they were a no.

Proposition 32, to raise the state minimum wage from $15 to $18 and then index it to inflation, also looks to be underwater with voters, with 54% saying they’ll vote no and 44% saying they’ll vote yes. It was a statistical tie in September, with 50% saying yes and 49% saying no.

Proposition 33, the most recent attempt to allow local governments to enact rent control policies in their jurisdictions, is facing stiff headwinds, with 54% saying they oppose the measure and 42% saying they favor it. In September, 51% said they would vote yes.

Proposition 34 looks to be yet another battle. The ballot measure to restrict spending of prescription drug revenues by certain health care providers has heavily divided voters, with 47% saying they are a yes and 49% saying no. In September, the yes side had a slight majority with 53% to the no side’s 43%.

Proposition 35 on the other hand looks to be in for some smooth sailing, with 62% saying they’ll vote yes on the measure to provide permanent funding for Medi-Cal Health Care Services. That number was slightly higher in September, with 63% saying they were a yes.

And finally, there’s Proposition 36. There’s little question whether this ballot measure will pass now, it becomes a question of by how much. Nearly three quarters of voters (73%) said they support the measure to reinstate felony penalties for certain theft- and drug-related offenses, up from 71% in September.

A SNAPSHOT OF CANDIDATE RACES

There was plenty more for political observers in the latest PPIC survey trove.

Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz enjoy a hefty double-digit lead over former President Donald Trump and Ohio Sen. JD Vance in the 2024 presidential contest, with 59% of likely voters siding with the former California senator and state attorney general.

That’s down a percentage point from when the question was polled in September, though the September polling still listed President Joe Biden as the Democratic candidate. He stepped down from the race in late July.

In the race to succeed Democratic California Sen. Laphonza Butler — who herself succeeded the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein — Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff continues to maintain a substantial lead over his Republican opponent, former baseball player Steve Garvey, with 63% of likely voters saying they support Schiff and 37% saying they’ll vote for Garvey. These numbers have largely held steady from September, when Garvey had 35% support.

Though the PPIC didn’t survey individual U.S. House races — which include some of the most closely watched races in the country — the nonpartisan pollster did ask voters whether they would choose the Democratic candidate or the Republican one in their local congressional race.

Survey says: Dems beat Republicans by a wide margin, with 61% of likely voters saying they’ll vote blue and 38% saying they’ll vote red.

HOW DO CALIFORNIANS FEEL ABOUT THEIR STATE?

Finally, the PPIC surveyed Californians about the top issues they believe are affecting the state.

Little surprise, the economy was on top, with 35% saying it was the most important issue facing the state. The economy has reigned as No. 1 with California voters since May 2022, according to the PPIC.

The only other issues to have double-digit support were concerns about housing costs and availability (18%) and homelessness (12%).

Californians remained pessimistic about the future of the state, with 60% saying it’s going in the wrong direction and 38% saying things are looking up for the Golden State. This gloom has been the status quo in California since June 2023, according to the PPIC.

A majority (58%) of likely voters said they expect bad financial times ahead for the state.

Californians are even more skeptical about the state of the nation — 69% said that the U.S. is heading in the wrong direction.

Top issues facing the country, Californians said, include the economy (26%), political extremism (18%) and immigration (15%).

A little more than half (53%) of likely voters said they expect bad times to come for the country.

There was one bright spot.

Faith in the election system remains strong — despite a nationwide effort to undermine that trust, fueled in part by foreign adversaries — with 63% of likely voters saying they have confidence how votes are counted in the state.

A majority (56%) said they aren’t concerned that it is too easy for ineligible to vote in California elections — it is a crime to do so — while 42% said they were concerned about the possibility.

That faith extends to the U.S. election as well, with 73% of likely voters confident that the federal election will be accurately cast and counted.

CALIFORNIANS AREN’T HAPPY WITH THEIR GOVERNMENT

Gov. Gavin Newsom has come a long way from the high approval numbers he enjoyed early on in his governorship. Now, more than half (52%) of likely voters disapprove of his job performance, while 47% approve.

The Legislature, too, is unpopular with voters, with 55% saying they disapprove of the job that state lawmakers are doing. This extends toward voters’ views of individual lawmakers, with 51% of likely voters saying they disapprove of their own assembly member and senator.

Biden, too, is underwater with California voters, with 52% disapproving of his job and 46% saying they approve.

Finally, Congress is deeply unpopular in the Golden State. Just 18% of likely voters said that U.S. lawmakers are doing a good job.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“It is deeply troubling and incredibly dangerous that Donald Trump would invoke Adolf Hitler, the man who was responsible for the death of six million Jews and hundreds of thousands of Americans.”

- Vice President Kamala Harris, via C-Span on Threads. Harris was referring to an article from The Atlantic that cited two unnamed sources who quoted Trump as once saying, “I need the kind of generals that Hitler had.” The Trump campaign has called that allegation “absolutely false,” according to The Atlantic.

Best of The Bee:

• More state employees returned to offices in July, but compliance is uneven, via William Melhado.

• Would Prop. 6 increase California prison costs? Q&A on the involuntary servitude measure, via Nicole Nixon.

• California prison official not fired for ‘egregious harassment.’ Report says department erred, via William Melhado.

• Why Gavin Newsom is not campaigning with Central Valley Democrats in tossup House races, via Gillian Brassil.