Adam Schiff vs. Steve Garvey: Who will win the California US Senate race?
Steve Garvey figured his status as a celebrity, a baseball hero not tied to any ideology, would make him a political star.
The campaign cited the former baseball all-star’s intense push for votes in the Latino community, as well as Garvey’s insistence he won’t be blindly loyal to the Republican Party. And they’re hoping voters will remember fondly his days as a Los Angeles Dodger and San Diego Padre.
“California is different from most swing states. People who support Republicans are not as vocal in their support as they are in a lot of other places. We’ve seen a lot of suppression in polls,” said Matt Shupe, Garvey’s campaign spokesman.
Yet polls have consistently said US Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Glendale, is going to clobber Garvey next week in their U.S. Senate race. And Nonpartisan analysts suggest any notion that Garvey has a shot at the Senate seat is a dream.
“This race is noncompetitive,” said Jessica Taylor, Senate and governors editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
Polls back that up. The Emerson College Poll of likely voters taken Oct. 12 to 14 had Schiff, the Democratic congressman from the Los Angeles area, at 56% to Garvey’s 33%. The October 7 to 15 Public Policy Institute of California of likely voters had Schuff ahead 63% to 37%.
Garvey’s team sees different trends.
“I don’t think there is going to be a problem come Election Day of him reaching 40%. Having done a lot of statewide races the polls rarely show accurate numbers at this point,” Shupe said.
While the surveys accurately reflect what Shupe called “overall sentiment on issues,” he said, “it doesn’t accurately reflect (potential) election results because they either don’t talk to statistically likely voters based on actual voting history and/or they weigh the sample population by voter registration numbers and not voter turn out numbers.”
If calculated that way, Shupe said, Emerson would have had Garvey at 42.5% this month. PPIC’s pre-primary poll, he said, was off by 13.5 percentage points regarding Garvey.
Pollsters say that all the factors mentioned by the Garvey team are considered in their findings.
The nonpartisan FiveThirtyEight assesses poll quality based on several factors, and has put PPIC and Emerson among the 36 most highly rated surveys nationwide.
Garvey’s hurdles
Garvey’s biggest election hurdle is the opposition. Schiff is a well-known, well-funded Democrat in a heavily Democratic state. Garvey is a Republican, one who has said he’s voted for former President Donald Trump in the past and plans to do so again.
Trump has lost California by big margins in his two previous presidential bids, and polls say he’s faring no better this time.
“People see a Democrat or Republican next to the name and that’s what they’re responding to,” said Mark Baldassare, PPIC statewide survey director..
The Bee reported earlier this year that Garvey owed at least $350,000 and possibly as much as $750,000 in federal income taxes, plus 8% interest, liabilities dating back 13 years.
Shupe said the issue doesn’t come up among voters. “We don’t hear about it at all,” he said.
Garvey has said he is working with his accountant to resolve the debt by the end of the year.
Wooing Latino voters
Republicans say Garvey’s best bet is stressing issues that speak to voters’ frustrations — crime, jobs, immigration and education — and to try to boost support among Latino voters.
“He is running a very smart and strategic campaign. I love his focus on the Latino community,” said California Republican Chair Jessica Millan Patterson.
Looking at key issues, she said, “right now California Democrats have failed on every one of these issues.”
Garvey supports Proposition 36, the ballot initiative that would toughen penalties for some theft and drug crimes. He is opposed to the re-election of George Gascon, the Los Angeles County district attorney who’s under fire for not being tough enough on crime.
Garvey has pressed Schiff to say who he is voting for. Schiff’s campaign responded that he is not endorsing anyone in local district attorney or ballot proposition races.
Taxes and the economy
Garvey echoes many of the traditional Republican views on how to heal the economy — less regulation, lower taxes and more incentives for domestic energy production. He told The Bee that fighting inflation would be his “primary focus.”
Schiff is also in tune with his party. He talks about a “need to lower housing costs by building millions of new homes, expanding tax incentives to make this construction viable, and incentivizing quicker decisions by local governments.”
He wants stronger federal price gouging rules and better antitrust enforcement as a way to lower food and gasoline prices. He backs a series of programs to help make child care more affordable and accessible, such as expanding early childhood programs.
Garvey’s campaign claims his positions are particularly appealing to the state’s Latino voters with what he calls his “all-in Latino community strategy.” About one-third of California’s electorate is Latino, and is notably younger than the state’s general population, according to an August study by the UCLA Latino Policy & Politics Institute.
Schiff counters with a long list of endorsements from Latino officials and community leaders, including US Senator Alex Padilla. The Democratic candidate was the keynote speaker last month at the United Farm Workers convention in Bakersfield, and has been endorsed by La Opinion, the country’s largest Spanish language newspaper.
Garvey’s ad spending so far has been aimed at that community. His campaign said last month he planned to spend $5 million on television, radio and digital ads urging Latino voters to embrace his candidacy.
“Taxes are too high in California. The cost of living has gone up and the education system has definitely plummeted,” said a woman identified only as Rosalia in one ad. “Steve Garvey not only has an ability to lead a team, he has an ability to connect with other people.”
The ad doesn’t mention that Garvey is a Republican.
This story was originally published October 28, 2024 at 1:46 PM.
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