California Reps. Adam Gray, David Valadao are crucial to who will control House. Why?
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Has Rep. David Valadao “jeopardized health care coverage for millions of Americans with a cruel budget blueprint?”
Has Rep. Adam Gray voted to “keep health care costs high?”
So say their political opponents. But those opponents’ claims are wildly exaggerated.
Gray and Valadao are among a handful of congressional incumbents with potentially close races next year, according to independent analysts who watch Congress closely. Democrats need a net gain of three seats to win control.
That’s why the House passage last week of a budget blueprint 20 months before anyone votes in a general election has ignited a political firestorm. The bill, an outline of a Republican plan to cut trillions in spending and taxes. passed a week ago on a largely party line vote. It contained no specifics about any taxes or cuts.
The accusations have been flying anyway, particularly aimed at Gray, a Central Valley Democrat, and Valadao, a Hanford Republican.
It’s all part of the kickoff of scrutiny of vulnerable members of Congress that’s likely to continue Tuesday night as they react to President Donald Trump’s address to Congress and the nation.
It’s expected to keep going next week as Congress considers a different budget plan to allow much of the government’s funding to continue past March 14, when much of the spending would end unless extended. That vote would fund the government through Sept. 30.
The Republican and Democratic battle over the weekend and on Monday, though, involve that House vote last week, which covers policies that would take effect starting Oct. 1, the start of the new fiscal year.
Close California races
Gray won his 2024 race by less than 200 votes, but Trump won his Central Valley district over Democrat Kamala Harris by 5.4 percentage points.
“We are watching how much staying power Gray will show next year in a region that has some political idiosyncrasies,” said Miles Coleman, associate editor of the nonpartisan Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which analyzes races.
The potential for cuts in Medicaid, the joint federal-state program that helps lower income people obtain health care, is a particularly attractive target for Democrats.
“Votes that would impact Medicaid coverage will have a disproportionate political impact on Valadao and Gray compared to other swing district members, since they have a high number of Medicaid recipients in their districts,” said Erin Covey, U.S. House editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Gray’s race is one of 10 Democratic-held seats and eight Republican-controlled seats nationwide Cook rates as a tossup.
Valadao has been in Congress since 2013, but lost in 2018 in a big Democratic year, a year when voter reaction to President Donald Trump helped the party regain control of the House. He regained his seat in 2020.
Valadao is seen as slightly more comfortable at the moment, since he won by 7 percentage points last year. But voters in the area had favored Democrats Joe Biden in 2020 and Hillary Clinton in 2016.
“I wouldn’t be surprised to see Valadao’s vote for this latest budget show up in Democratic attack ads next year,” said Covey.
What’s happening now could be a preview. Here’s what the politicians are saying:
Republicans on Gray
“The facts are the facts: Adam Gray had the chance to stop the Biden tax increase and put more money in the pockets of middle-class Americans, but instead, he hung his constituents out to dry. And we will never let him forget it,” said Ben Petersen, National Republican Campaign Committee spokesman.
Claims:
▪ NRCC: Gray “bent the knee to the extreme left.”
Reality: Every Democrat in the House who voted, regardless of ideology, voted against the budget bill. One Republican, Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, also voted no, saying the bill did not cut enough spending.
▪ NRCC: Gray’s vote on the House budget would “send tax rates back up for EVERY income level.” A no vote was a vote to “keep tips fully taxes” and “cut the child tax credit in half.”
Reality: The Trump tax cuts of 2017, which cut tax rates and provided other benefits, will expire at the end of the year. The bill passed by the House will make it easier to extend those tax cuts..
Lifting the tax on tips was not part of the 2017 package. Trump proposed that break last year.
The House bill last month did not mention any specific tax cuts or increases. Those specifics will be ironed out in the months ahead, and Republicans are expected to pass the cuts, possibly without Democratic help.
▪ NRCC: Gray voted to “keep health care costs high.”
Reality: The bill provides for $880 billion in savings from programs under the jurisdiction of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, which writes legislation governing health care policy.
The bill has no specifics, and the committee is likely to take months to figure out what they could be. There are a variety of ways to cut Medicaid spending.
▪ NRCC: Gray voted to “Continue funding wasteful government spending.”
The bill calls for $2 trillion in spending reductions over 10 years, but doesn’t say precisely how.
Gray says he’s determined to fight cuts that would hurt people in his district and beyond.
He called the budget plan a proposal that “would steal from the poor to give to the rich” and “literally makes health care coverage worse for every single person living in rural America.
Democrats on Valadao
“David Valadao is so out of touch with the Central Valley that he has chosen fealty to Donald Trump and his D.C. Party Bosses over hardworking California families. Valadao will come to regret his vote that guts Medicaid to fund trillions in tax cuts for billionaires like Elon Musk and wealthy corporations,” said Justin Chermol, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman.
▪ DCCC: “David Valadao and House Republicans’ budget proposal would take health care coverage and food assistance away from millions of working parents, kids, seniors, and people with disabilities by targeting two of California’s most critical federally-funded programs - Medicaid and SNAP.”
Reality: Valadao voted for a budget outline. While the Energy and Commerce Committee could make big cuts in Medicaid the program is not specifically mentioned in the bill.
Because the committee has to come up with such massive cuts, though, experts see Medicaid as a ripe target.
▪ DCCC: Nearly 61,000 households are at risk of losing SNAP benefits in the district. The budget bill has the House Agriculture Committee come up with $230 billion nationwide in spending reductions.
Reality: While the cuts could include the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or food aid for lower income families, nothing specific has been decided.
Valadao called the budget bill “the first step in the process before committees begin drafting legislation to determine priorities.
“I’ve made clear to House leadership that I will only support a final bill that protects essential resources like Medicaid or SNAP for Central Valley families,” he said.
This story was originally published March 4, 2025 at 5:00 AM.
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