How will Trump tariffs affect California Republicans’ congressional races?
Nothing usually matters more than the economy in political contests. So does that mean the financial markets’ plunge and the consumer uncertainty this week mean trouble for California’s Republicans?
It’s unclear, and Northern and Central California Republican House members are carefully describing their views on President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, policies that have sent financial markets reeling and triggering warnings about economic chaos.
Democrats are blasting away at Republicans. The tariffs pose “a serious risk to farmers in the San Joaquin Valley and across the country,” said Rep. Adam Gray, D-Merced. Gray, who’s been in office for three months, defeated Republican incumbent John Duarte in November by less than 200 votes.
Whether or not tariffs will help him, though, remains an open question..
“Because Trump’s handling of the tariffs is so erratic, it’s difficult to judge the economic, and ultimately, political impact of the issue right now,” said Erin Covey, House editor for the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan firm that studies congressional elections.
The political uncertainty is clear among the state’s Northern and Central California Republicans, who take somewhat different views on how to proceed. California has 43 Democratic House members, who tend to be united in questioning the Trump tariff policies. Both of the state’s senators are Democrats.
The state has nine Republican House members. Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford, is arguably the most vulnerable GOP California member of Congress. Both Cook and Inside Elections, a nonpartisan firm that studies congressional races, rate his contest “lean Republican.”
First elected in 2012, he served three terms, then lost in 2018 in the middle of Trump’s first term, a big year for Democrats. Valadao won the seat back in 2020 and won by 7 percentage points last year.
Some Republicans are promoting legislation that would give Congress more of a say in tariff decisions.
Valadao on tariffs
Valadao, a dairy farmer deeply involved in trade issues, is sympathetic.
“The fact is, some countries benefit from unfair trade advantages, and I believe targeted tariffs can be a useful tool to level the playing field. That said, I think Congress should play a role in decisions like this as our Founding Fathers intended,” he told The Bee.
Reps. Tom McClintock, R-Elk Grove, and Kevin Kiley, R-Roseville, were more circumspect about Trump’s tariff policies.
“Our trade objective must be: ZERO tariffs, ZERO subsidies and ZERO non-tariff barriers. Tariffs always harm whatever country imposes them,” McClintock said on X.
“Their only justification is to leverage trading partners to adopt free trade agreements. I hope this is where the President is going,” he said. McClintock did not respond to requests for further comment.
Kiley, LaMalfa views
Kiley told The Bee that he was unfamiliar with legislation that would give Congress more of a say in tariff policy.
But, he said, “the president has said he wants to see us have deals with other countries that reduce trade barriers. I think that would be a great thing.”
Rep. Doug LaMalfa, R-Chico, a rice farmer and business owner who’s one of the most conservative California members of Congress, saw value in the tariffs. He was opposed to legislation giving Congress more clout in such matters.
“I’m more inclined to support the direction he (Trump) wants to go,” the congressman said.
“I wouldn’t say everything is going perfectly, (but) I’ve always thought even before I was in politics, why doesn’t the U.S. have a stronger mirror (reciprocal) policy on tariffs. Why do we always take it in the short end?” he asked.
LaMalfa likes the idea that the country and its leaders are engaged in the issue.
“We need to have this conversation,” he said.
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