Would Kamala Harris sail to victory if she runs for California governor?
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Kamala Harris remains undecided on 2026 run, freezing donor support statewide.
- Polls show Harris leads field, but rivals question her motivations and credibility.
- Strategists cite polling and anti-establishment trends as major challenges.
Democratic donors, political observers and potential rivals are waiting — with waning patience — for Kamala Harris to decide whether or not she will run for governor.
The former vice president and 2024 Democratic presidential nominee has set an end-of-summer deadline to make her decision.
Since losing to President Donald Trump in November, Harris has made a few appearances and speeches in friendly venues but largely stayed out of the public eye.
Multiple polls have shown that she would be a clear and immediate frontrunner if she decides to join the race.
But political strategists say despite her universal name recognition, Harris, who has also won statewide elections for attorney general and U.S. Senate, wouldn’t necessarily glide to victory.
“There’s a lot of animosity and angst out there over the fact that she’s responsible for letting Trump into the White House for a second term,” said Garry South, a strategist with four California gubernatorial races under his belt. “And she’s going to have to respond to that.”
One of Harris’ potential Democratic rivals, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, has already accused her of participating in a “cover up” of former President Joe Biden’s declining health, which ultimately led to Biden dropping out of the presidential race last year and elevating Harris
Villaraigosa also called out Xavier Becerra, who served as Biden’s Health and Human Services Secretary and is also running for governor.
“Voters deserve to know the truth, what did Kamala Harris and Xavier Becerra know, when did they know it, and most importantly, why didn’t either of them speak out?” Villaraigosa demanded after the release of Original Sin, a book by journalists Jake Tapper and Alex Thompson which chronicled the behind-the-scenes of Biden’s campaign.
“This cover up directly led to a second Donald Trump term – and as a result, all Californians are paying the price,” Villaraigosa argued.
Harris would have another issue to get in front of should she decide to run: she’d have to convince voters she is not seeking the governorship as a stepping stone or placeholder.
“She is going to be hounded incessantly to make a commitment, an absolute promise, that she will not then run for president again in 2028, and she’s going to have to make that commitment in order to avoid trouble,” South said.
Representatives for Harris did not respond to a request for comment for this story.
A Harris entrance to the race would likely reshape the candidate field. Some candidates including Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis — a close friend and successful fundraiser for Harris — and State Superintendent Tony Thurmond told The Bee earlier this summer they would reconsider their campaigns if the former VP gets in.
In the meantime, many big-dollar donors are keeping their purses closed until Harris announces her next move.
“Everything is frozen until she makes a decision, and then all the dominoes are going to fall,” said Democratic strategist Steven Maviglio. “Everybody thinks she’s invincible, so they’re not contributing to anyone else.”
Despite Harris’ position at the top of gubernatorial polls, one strategist called her numbers “weak.”
“Especially for somebody who was just a standard bearer for the national (Democratic) Party, it’s really tepid. It’s anemic,” said Mike Madrid, a Republican consultant who is advising Democrat Stephen Cloobeck’s campaign for governor. “So she’s got a much tougher fight to win the primary than most people would think.”
He said Democratic candidates that have won — including New York mayoral hopeful Zohran Mamdani and Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego — could foreshadow California’s governor’s race, where affordability has already become a top issue.
“(They) did very well with working class voters. They did very well with people of color. So it’s not an ideological problem, but it’s clearly an anti-establishment problem,” said Madrid, who studies Latino voting patterns. “That’s, I think, Kamala Harris’s biggest problem.”
This story was originally published July 22, 2025 at 4:32 PM.
