No paychecks. No food assistance. When will this government shutdown end?

There’s no end in sight to the federal government shutdown, which Monday reached its 27th day.

Every date that was supposed to influence Congress to figure out an end passes.

What will motivate Congress and President Donald Trump to end all this? The answer, say members of Congress and independent experts, is rooted in two camps: Constituent pressure and/or an ability by lawmakers to gain political advantage.

The betting is that constituent pressure will be growing enormously over the next few days.

“The degree of pain to the federal employees, contractors, state and local government, and so on will start rising at an exponential rate,” said Sung Won Sohn, president of SS Economics in Los Angeles.

So far, the political and economic pressure has been minimal, as crucial dates pass.

Oct. 15 was supposed to begin a new push for a settlement. That was the day many Californians and consumers around the country began receiving notices about next year’s soaring health care premiums.

Friday was supposed to be a day of reckoning, since it was the first time federal employees missed a complete paycheck.

Now all congressional eyes are turning to next Friday, as military personnel could see no paychecks. The next day, millions will lose help paying for food through the Supplemental Nutrition Association Program, or CalFresh.

So far, though, nothing is stoking much movement to end a shutdown. The House has not met to vote since Sept. 19, and is not expected back this week. The Senate was going to be out until Monday night, when it was scheduled to vote on judicial appointments. Trump is in Asia for most of the week.

What are constituents feeling?

“A lot of people don’t understand what a shutdown means,” said Sen. John Kennedy, R-La.

Little by little, say experts, that’s changing.

“Missed paychecks add up over time. You may be able to get through the first one with some rearrangement of your personal finances that doesn’t cause disruption,” said Shai Akabas, vice president of economic policy at Washington’s Bipartisan Policy Center.

In states where federal employment is more crucial to the economy, such as Maryland, Virginia or Alaska, there’s more of a crisis atmosphere.

“I come from a state where we’re feeling the impact. It maybe feels differently in a state like … Iowa or Arkansas,” said Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, who sometimes votes with Democrats.

Friday’s completely missed paycheck was the first for many federal workers. The pay they got Oct. 10 probably included a few pre-shutdown days.

The impact grows. Once someone loses a second or third check, they often have to seek help paying more bills and perhaps borrow to stay afloat. Add to that the increased health care premiums for Obamacare-related coverage – with premiums estimated to double in California – and the pressure balloons.

In California, 1,274 former federal workers sought unemployment benefits for the week ending Oct. 11, the first full week after the shutdown began.

Those numbers are a tiny part of the 360,000 claims the state has seen in recent months, and the state has been averaging about 37,000 new claims overall each week.

The state has more than 18 million workers, so it’s unlikely federal workers without jobs will have much impact on the state’s unemployment rate, said Michael Bernick, a former state Employment Development Department director who is now an employment attorney at Duane Morris LLP.

A bigger impact on Californians could come later this week. CalFresh helps about 5.5 million people in the state with an average monthly household benefit of $189 per recipient. That program is federally funded.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food and Nutrition Service has posted, in bright red, a notice at the top of its web page blaming Democrats for the problem. It does not mention that Republican leaders have refused to negotiate a compromise.

“Bottom line, the well has run dry. At this time, there will be no benefits issued November 01,” the notice says.

Who’s winning, Democrats or Republicans?

“I would like to think what motivates both sides is they recognize neither side is winning. Right now both sides think they have an advantage. As long as you think you have an advantage there’s no incentive to dial it back,” Murkowski said.

Unlike most previous shutdowns, the president and congressional leaders are not having serious discussions about ending the crisis.

Ask an influential lawmaker about an endgame, and the answers have been virtually the same since the shutdown began.

Trump had congressional Republicans to the White House for lunch last week. Afterward, Sen. Mike Rounds, R-South Dakota, told The Bee “His message is stick together and make this thing work.”

A few minutes later, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-New York, told reporters he wants to negotiate with Republican leaders. “The only way to solve this is to sit down and negotiate with us in a serious way,” he said.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-South Dakota, said he’s open to talks once Democrats agree to reopen the government.

So far, vote after vote in the Senate has fallen short of the 60 votes needed to advance a budget bill. Democrats control 47 of the chamber’s 100 seats, and almost all have opposed the legislation.

There is some sense that rumblings are growing among the congressional rank and file, though nothing has surfaced yet that seems promising.

Rep. Kevin Kiley, R-Roseville, has been in Washington for the last two weeks, and a handful of Republicans have been joining him. They’re talking to Democrats. In the Senate, a group of Democratic and Republican senators had lunch together last week to discuss how to end the shutdown.

If there is an emerging consensus, Kiley suggested, it could involve the health care issue.

“Maybe the beginning stages of such a deal could be a way out of the shutdown,” he said. “I think we should be exploring all avenues to end this.”

On Monday, though, the only visible sign of political life was a morning news conference hosted by House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La.

He stuck to his position, blaming Democrats for keeping the shutdown going.

“The Democrats are more afraid of the Marxists in their base than they are of hard-working Americans,” he said. “They are so afraid they will lose their jobs if they don’t appease the far left.”

David Lightman

McClatchy DC

David Lightman is a former journalist for the DCBureau