Who’s ahead in the Republican vs. Democrat congressional redistricting war?

The latest congressional redistricting scorecard shows a slight advantage nationally for Republicans, despite California’s bid to redraw its lines to help Democrats.

“As of right now, I’d say there is a modest bias in the overall House map” in favor of the GOP retaining control of the House, said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan organization that analyzes House races.

At the independent Cook Political Report, Erin Covey, U.S. House editor, had the same edge for the GOP.

“The very slight gain for Republicans, one to two seats, is the median scenario,” she said.

All this could change as state after state tries to redraw congressional maps to favor the party in power.

The variables seem endless, though a big uncertainty was eliminated Thursday when the U.S. Supreme Court upheld the new Texas map that creates five more Republican-friendly seats.

But there are more questions to be addressed. Other Supreme Court rulings involving the Voting Rights Act could upend other states’ maps. Legislative action could change the lines in several states. Congressional action is under consideration, though unlikely.

At the Capitol, member frustrations grow as the uncertainty continues. In California, Proposition 50 redrew boundaries to favor Democrats in five districts.

The voter-approved map faces a legal challenge from Republicans and the U.S. Department of Justice, who argue that Democrats racially gerrymandered the new districts. A federal court is scheduled to hear arguments from both sides beginning Dec. 15.

On Friday, the political arm for House Democrats asked a federal court to toss a GOP-led challenge, citing the Supreme Court’s decision to uphold Texas’ map for the 2026 elections.

In a concurring opinion for the majority, Justice Samuel Alito wrote that it is “indisputable” that both Texas and California’s motivations for redistricting “was partisan advantage pure and simple.”

Lawyers for the DCCC argued that the ruling “leaves no doubt” that Republicans’ challenge against the new California map “are doomed to fail.”

What happens to Kevin Kiley?

One is now held by Rep. Kevin Kiley, R-Rocklin. The new map carves the GOP-dominated area he now represents east of Sacramento and down to Death Valley into six different districts.

Kiley said he’s running, though he’s not sure where yet. He’s frustrated that Congress is not acting on his plan to outlaw mid-term line-drawing, criticizing his own GOP leadership. He won’t speculate on whom all the changes benefit.

Even if Republicans did have an edge, he said, “that doesn’t make it right.”

Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has said the GOP should gain from all the changes. Kiley was critical.

“The fact that he’s citing that as a way to keep the majority ... I find it very problematic.

“The way you should try to keep the majority is by enacting good policy,” the congressman said.

Republicans now have a 220 to 213 majority in the House, with two seats vacant. If the party has a net loss of three seats in 2026, Democrats control the House in January 2027.

Here’s the outlook:

Texas

The state, at the urging of President Donald Trump, started the parade of change when it redrew its lines to create the five GOP-leaning districts.

A Supreme Court majority opinion Thursday allows the new map to take effect. Justice Samuel Alito wrote that the “impetus for the adoption of the Texas map (like the map subsequently adopted in California) was partisan advantage, pure and simple.”

A three-judge panel in Texas had said last month the new lines were racial gerrymandering and that the former lines remained in effect. “Substantial evidence shows that Texas racially gerrymandered the 2025 map,” the majority opinion said.

California

New lines are in place, but they still have to survive a Republican-driven court test claiming that the boundaries amount to racial gerrymandering.

Meanwhile, GOP candidates are weighing options. Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona, will challenge Rep. Young Kim, R-Anaheim, in Southern California. Rep. Darrell Issa, R-San Marcos, was reportedly looking at running in Texas but said Thursday he’ll stick with California. Kiley’s not sure where he’ll run.

Ohio

The state’s redistricting commission has created new lines, and the Sabato analysis found, “There’s little question that both the old map and the new map favor Republicans—but neither do so in a maximal way.”

Republicans could gain as many as three seats here, but Ohio has traditionally been a swing state, one whose voters react swiftly to economic conditions.

Among the vulnerable incumbents is Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who represents a district that gave Trump a six-point win in 2024. Had the new map been in effect, the Toledo-area district would have given Trump a 10-point win.

Southern states

Louisiana’s district lines are under scrutiny from challengers questioning whether the state has racially gerrymandered by creating too many majority-Black districts.

Such districts tend to be heavily Democratic. Last year, Alabama elected two Black House members for the first time in its history.

If the court rules against the majority-minority districts, Republicans in those GOP-dominated states and elsewhere would be freer to draw lines that favored their candidates.

North Carolina

The state redrew its map in October to realign the district now represented by Rep. Donald Davis, a Democrat. The Republican-run legislature approved the change, which did not require the signature of Gov. Josh Stein, a Democrat.

Davis says he’ll run in the new district, which the Cook Report says leans Republican.

Utah

A rare non-California triumph for Democrats. One of the most conservative states in the country will have a Salt Lake City-area district that favors Democrats,

The area had been cut up and represented by Republicans, who now control all four Utah House seats. The change was ordered by Utah State Judge Dianna Gibson last month.

Indiana

The state is moving quickly to redraw its boundaries to create nine Republican-dominated districts. The GOP now controls seven districts.

House Republicans have been trying to get the plan approved, but there’s some reluctance in the Senate, where lawmakers fear a voter backlash.

Maryland and Virginia

Both states’ Democratic leaders are eager to carve out new Democratic-friendly seats.

But changing the lines of Maryland’s sole Republican seat is facing opposition from Senate President Bill Ferguson, a Democrat who argues that redrawing lines could make other Democrats vulnerable.

In Virginia, Democrats are eyeing ways to flip four Republican seats, but it would take a lengthy process. And it’s not clear what Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger would support.

Missouri

While the state has redrawn lines that would change the boundaries of a Kansas City-based Democratic district, Democrats are fighting back.

They’re trying to get a referendum on the ballot next year that would keep the current lines intact until voters have their say, meaning no changes would take effect in the midterms.

Florida

Republicans in the legislature are trying to start a process to redraw the maps in a state that’s been trending toward the GOP. Gov. Ron DeSantis is backing changes.

Prospects are uncertain. The Florida Fair Districts Amendments, approved by voters in 2010, say lines can’t be drawn simply to help a political party or anyone now in office.

The Bee’s Nicole Nixon contributed to this story.

This story was originally published December 5, 2025 at 9:20 AM.

David Lightman

McClatchy DC

David Lightman is a former journalist for the DCBureau