Another poll shows two Republicans leading governor’s race. Should CA Dems fret?
A new pulse-check of voters’ thoughts on the candidates vying to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom again shows two Republicans leading the pack, while about one-third of voters remain undecided.
The poll was conducted by Civic Lens Research, a fledgling nonpartisan polling firm based in Virginia. It surveyed 400 likely California primary voters via a web questionnaire sent by text message between Dec. 14 and Dec. 16.
Steve Hilton, a Republican and former Fox News host, leads in the poll with support from nearly 18% of respondents. Another Republican candidate, Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco, had 14%.
The top Democrat was Rep. Eric Swalwell — who got into the race last month — with support from 12% of those surveyed. He was followed by former Rep. Katie Porter, who had 9%.
Other Democratic candidates had single-digit support: billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer (7%), State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond (3%), former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (2%), former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra (1%) and former Controller Betty Yee (1%).
Nearly 3% said they would support another candidate, but the biggest group said they were still undecided at this point in the race.
The Civic Lens survey is the latest in a string of polls showing one or both Republicans leading the pack. In California’s top-two primary system, it’s possible that the two Republicans could advance to the general election and lock out Democrats.
But veteran Democratic strategist Andrew Acosta said he’s not concerned about that coming to fruition, noting a Republican entrepreneur from Silicon Valley, John Slavet, recently getting into the race and continued speculation that Attorney General Rob Bonta might run for governor.
Filing deadline isn’t until March
“In the open primary world, you can’t handicap a race until you know who’s in it, and the filing period is open until March,” Acosta said. “I don’t think only two candidates will split the 40% of votes that typically go to Republicans” in statewide races.
Republican strategist Jon Fleischman agreed, saying it’s “very, very unlikely” that two GOP candidates make it past the primary.
Even if the polls continue to put Hilton and Bianco on top, Fleischman predicts labor unions and other interest groups would spend money “to elevate one Republican and depress the other one.”
Sen. Adam “Schiff did it. Newsom did it,” during their most recent elections in 2024 and 2022, Fleischman said. “They each spent more money elevating Republicans (during the primary) than the Republicans spent on themselves.”
In recent weeks, Steyer has been the only gubernatorial candidate airing television ads around the state to introduce himself to voters — other candidates don’t have the funds to spend that kind of money at this point.
Acosta said he’s not sure if Steyer’s ads are “moving the needle much yet” but that all the other candidates are “living off name ID and broadcast TV hits” on stations like MS Now, formerly MSNBC, and news stations in California markets.
“Nobody seems to have broken out yet, which is why so many people are still getting in this race,” he said.
The Democratic strategist, who is not working with any gubernatorial candidates this cycle, expects candidates to begin planting flags on policy — homelessness, mental health reform and other topics — in the new year.
This story was originally published December 18, 2025 at 3:03 PM.
